Dougie Hamilton or Josh Morrissey?

[iglooinhabitant]

Hey guys,

Roto keeper league

(goals, assists, points, +/-, pims, ppg, ppa, d-points)

Which of these two dmen do you prefer?

So far, Dougie is obviously more valuable in our league because of his high goals and pims but is Morrissey primed to hit or break 50 this year?

I have a trade where the other GM said he'd take either so it's up to me to decide who to give.

Thanks for any insight or opinions!

[Canucks_fan18]

I take Dougie with those cats but his lack of PP1 is starting to frustrate me. I do think Morissey has a higher points ceiling but might not be more valuable overall.

[iglooinhabitant]

That's exactly how I feel myself, Canucks_fan.

We've been waiting for Dougie to have PP1 for so long across so many situations and it just doesn't happen, there must be something about him where coaches just don't think he runs it well or they'd give it to him.

My concern with Morrissey is mostly that the Jets can't possibly keep this D corps as is and if they trade for a someone like Ristolainen would they immediately pull Josh off the top PP since he's so good overall? If Morrissey went back to being a minute cruncher but not on the top PP his value takes a massive drop, imo.

[Wonko]

That's exactly how I feel myself, Canucks_fan.

We've been waiting for Dougie to have PP1 for so long across so many situations and it just doesn't happen, there must be something about him where coaches just don't think he runs it well or they'd give it to him.

My concern with Morrissey is mostly that the Jets can't possibly keep this D corps as is and if they trade for a someone like Ristolainen would they immediately pull Josh off the top PP since he's so good overall? If Morrissey went back to being a minute cruncher but not on the top PP his value takes a massive drop, imo.

I agree. My worry about Morrissey is Winnipeg bringing in a dedicated PP quarterback. That said, I still think Morrissey would hold pretty strong value, just not as much as Hamilton in that scenario.

[Pengwin7]

With the +/- in play, I much prefer Dougie Hamilton.
Not sure about WPG this year, Morrissey will log a ton of time... and WPG has better forwards, so there'll be a LOT of points for Morrissey.
But... Morrissey could finish -20 too.

Last night was a bit of case-in-point.

[iglooinhabitant]

^ Great point. There is no way in hell he's a + player by year's end.

In general, what do you guys think is Morrissey's upside? I kind of relate him to Pietrangelo, is that a good comparable? Can definitely be offensive but will fluctuate between 40-55 points depending on how everything goes for him and what other offensive Dmen he's competing against on his team. No real chance at being some 55+ offensive wizard dman.

[Pengwin7]

In general, what do you guys think is Morrissey's upside? I kind of relate him to Pietrangelo, is that a good comparable?

Morrisey is sort of D1.5 (not quite a D1, but better than a D2).
Both he and Pietrangelo can put up 35pts at even-strength simply due to solid overall game, big TOI, and excellent forwards in front of them.
The gravy, for any top-pairing D man, is how many they get on the PP.
Any defensemen with good+ puck-moving skills and a big shot can get 20+ PPP alone on a PP1.
So, that puts Morrissey's upside at 55pts.

But... many/most PP2 D-men are sometimes closer to 8-10 ppp... so that puts him at 43-45pts.
And - this is exactly what Morrissey "paced" for last year, with 31pts in 59gp.

If Morrissey holds the PP1 all year (possible), he'll be right around 50pts in 80gp.
If Morrissey only plays PP2 all year (last year), he'll pace for about 40-43pts in 80gp.
Fortunately, for Morrissey... this seems like it should/could be the year he gets that PP1.
Long-term... IDK though, it depends if WPG makes the playoffs... and I don't think they will.

Pietrangelo has put up 50+pts thrice... usually, he hits that with nearly 20ppp included... he did have one incredible ESP year two seasons ago.
He's a perfect comparable. (even though AP>Morrissey, in general)

[SeaDawg]

I've been struggling with a decision re: the same two players, and I'm leaning towards Hamilton. My reasoning is that even without 1st unit PP time, Hamilton produces across the board in terms of goals, assists, points, SOG, +/-, etc. Morrissey "could" explode if Byfuglien retires and if the Jets don't bring in a dman to play the PP, but there are so many variables that I'm not sure I want to take the risk and pass up Hamilton and his consistent production.

[Eleasha]

I like both of them, but just Dougie a bit more.

[iglooinhabitant]

Thanks for the amazing response, Pengwin! That was very detailed and thoughtful.

SeaDawg, that's exactly my latest thought as well. Dougie's floor and with no changes is above average, he then still has situational upside potential if Gards gets hurt or if the PP they have now isn't working. Probably better I take that than Morrissey who might only slightly be above if all lights are green.