Binnington vs Murray

[jman]

So here's a vexing one... Who would you take right now if looking to contend for the next few years. Relevant cats are Wins (extra pt for shutout), save %, GAA.
Thank you.

[lucafen4]

I take Binnington.
Stl. is doing a really good job of moving young players into the line up. I don't foresee a huge Cup hangover for them.
and Binnington is for real.

Pitts seems to be marred in the middle of a transition period, without the same level of young talent filtering in.
add in Murray's injury history & concerns.

Binn just feels like the better and safer option

[Eleasha]

Binnington just scares me a bit because I just don't have a full season of seeing what he can do yet. He can be fantastic, but in the back of my head there is this huge but that he might hit a wall and than it is Jake Allen time again in St. Louis. With Matt Murray you know what you are going to get and if he stays healthy that is a pretty good Goalie on a good team.

[chuckcouples]

I don't think either of them are close to top tier starters but I would prefer Murray. Binnington scares me a lot.

[kevinsrangers]

id take murray. the injury concern does make it close though.

[lucafen4]

Funny thing.. three years ago.. Murray was Binnington

[j0hn_d0e]

Funny thing.. three years ago.. Murray was Binnington

So ture. Im also taking Winnington.

[jman]

Pretty split on the boards but not in the voting...

[niconasr]

It's simply impossible to project anything about Binnington. The sample size is too small and the position is already victim to huge swings in production. This is pure guess. Murray, we know a little more about and it's that he's a mid-tier goalie on a strong team. He'll get you wins and average peripherals.

I'd go Binnington based on upside and team defence but I agree that he is basically what Murray was coming out of the Pens first Cup win.

[stevegamer]

This poll, to me, is:

Binnington's SV% and amount of starts, STL Wins and GAA, versus Murray SV% and amount of starts, Pittsburgh Wins and GAA.

I know enough to not trust the Penguins GAA. The Blues have been better over the last 4 years, even starting Allen, who is not a starting caliber NHL goalie. Advantage STL.

Wins is pretty much a toss-up over the last 4 years, and is impossible to pick. Tie.

Regarding playing time, Murray is injury prone, has better backups, and is also a pending free agent. Binnington is unproven that he can handle the main workload in the NHL for a whole year. I think it's more likely Binnington starts over 50 games than Murray, but i don't think either will do so, and I figure their start numbers should be close. Tie with possible upside to Binnington, as he might be able to handle the load. I realize Allen is there, but I see Allen's contract as a threat not Allen's actual play. Murray could be playing the Fleury role in the next round of expansion, so that's also a worry down the road. Both should be starters.

Now we get to SV%, which is the hardest thing to analyze. Murray has a track record of being above average year-to-year with a great year and a below-average year thrown in. He is high variance week to week and start to start. Binnington has only the one year, and It's great, but I think average to above average is what you are hoping for. I expect him to be lower variance, simply because he's not on Pittsburgh, who is a high variance team. This is an unknown, but I'd give a slight edge to Murray.

Given that the only definitive edge is STL's GAA, I'd take Binnington.

[jman]

This poll, to me, is:

Binnington's SV% and amount of starts, STL Wins and GAA, versus Murray SV% and amount of starts, Pittsburgh Wins and GAA.

I know enough to not trust the Penguins GAA. The Blues have been better over the last 4 years, even starting Allen, who is not a starting caliber NHL goalie. Advantage STL.

Wins is pretty much a toss-up over the last 4 years, and is impossible to pick. Tie.

Regarding playing time, Murray is injury prone, has better backups, and is also a pending free agent. Binnington is unproven that he can handle the main workload in the NHL for a whole year. I think it's more likely Binnington starts over 50 games than Murray, but i don't think either will do so, and I figure their start numbers should be close. Tie with possible upside to Binnington, as he might be able to handle the load. I realize Allen is there, but I see Allen's contract as a threat not Allen's actual play. Murray could be playing the Fleury role in the next round of expansion, so that's also a worry down the road. Both should be starters.

Now we get to SV%, which is the hardest thing to analyze. Murray has a track record of being above average year-to-year with a great year and a below-average year thrown in. He is high variance week to week and start to start. Binnington has only the one year, and It's great, but I think average to above average is what you are hoping for. I expect him to be lower variance, simply because he's not on Pittsburgh, who is a high variance team. This is an unknown, but I'd give a slight edge to Murray.

Given that the only definitive edge is STL's GAA, I'd take Binnington.

This is a deadly analysis... thank you Steve.