I am in the same boat with Chabot but we don't have +/- Scoring. I am debating between keeping him or Seth Jones but I like Chabot in a contract year with the possibility of him being traded to a better team.
Basically I know he's good, but he is on a tire fire of a team.
so maybe the follow up question is, when will Ottawa get it together.
Chabot's +/- scares the crap out of me.
16 Team H2H Keeper Year 16
Skater Points
G2, A1, DG+1, DA+1, GWG1, HAT3, OTG1, PIM0.5, PPG1, PPA1, PenaltyShotG1, SHG2, ShootOutG1, SOG0.1, +/-1
Goalie Points
W4, S 0.14, GA-1, OW1, ShootOutW 1, SO2
Line-Up
F (start 6): Connor, Svechnikov, Guentzel, , Kaprizov
D (start 4): Q Hughes, Ekblad, DeAngelo, Makar
G (start 1):
8 Keepers:
16 Team Roto Keeper League:
Cats
G, A, +/-, PPP, HIT, SOG, D Points, W, and SV%.
Line-Up
3C: Barzal, Duchene, Kyrou, Couturier
3LW: Lafreniere, Debrincat, Garland, J Robertson
3RW: Puljujarvi, Bjorkstrand, Fiala, Reinhart, McCann
4D: Bouchard, Cabot, Klingburg, S Jones, Byram
2G (Max): Rask, Hellebuyck
5 Keepers
I am in the same boat with Chabot but we don't have +/- Scoring. I am debating between keeping him or Seth Jones but I like Chabot in a contract year with the possibility of him being traded to a better team.
I'd say there were periods last season when Chabot was elite. So, to answer your question, yes he will be.
Who knows when Ottawa won't be trash though. Lots of prospects, should have a high pick this year. Does Melnyk pay Chabot next year? Risky proposition but you'd have to hope so. Have to start to build upward at some point.
Ottawa isn't trading Chabot any time soon so if that's what you are waiting for, expect to be disappointed.
Chabot is going to be a very good Dman for years. "Elite" is a matter of opinion depending on how you consider the definition of that word (which I hate). Also, +/- isn't something he can control much of so I don't worry about that one category much. If you can own him, enjoy the ride. As I say, he will be a very good Dman for years.
10 Team, Points Only, Cash League
25 Man Roster (no position), top 20 point getters count at end of month
Keep 20/25 at seasons end, Cut 5 to FA for redrafting
Goalie points W=2pt L=-1pt SHO=2pt
Stamkos, Tavares, Eichel, Mercer, JRobertson, RThomas, Kucherov, Nugent-Hopkins, Tuch, KConnor, Necas, Point, Konecny, SJarvis, Cozenz, Morrissey, Bouchard, Josi, Novak, Tolvanen, Peterka, SBennett
G- Vasilevskiy, Sorokin, Oettinger
"Cleavage is like the sun. You can look, but dont stare.. Unless you're wearing sunglasses."
14 Teams H2H Dynasty, 28 roster spots (8 bench), 15 minors under 100
Weekly Matchups - Daily Lineups
Skaters: G/A/Pt/PIM/SoG/STP/H+B/ToI/Corsi
Goalies: W/GAA/SVs/SV%/SHO
C: Eichel, Kadri, Mcdavid, Sodeberg, Schenn
LW: Ehlers, Landeskog, Meier, Debrusk, Foegele, Lee
RW: Pastrnak, Marner, Palmieri, Terry, D. Brown, Bailey, Granlund
D: Krug, Josi, Ekholm, Faulk, Muzzin, Karlsson, Cernak,
G: Hellebuyck, Biship, M Jones
10 Team, Points Only, Cash League
25 Man Roster (no position), top 20 point getters count at end of month
Keep 20/25 at seasons end, Cut 5 to FA for redrafting
Goalie points W=2pt L=-1pt SHO=2pt
Stamkos, Tavares, Eichel, Mercer, JRobertson, RThomas, Kucherov, Nugent-Hopkins, Tuch, KConnor, Necas, Point, Konecny, SJarvis, Cozenz, Morrissey, Bouchard, Josi, Novak, Tolvanen, Peterka, SBennett
G- Vasilevskiy, Sorokin, Oettinger
"Cleavage is like the sun. You can look, but dont stare.. Unless you're wearing sunglasses."
So there's a couple of points that go towards D-men producing in fantasy.
PP production doesn't really sway yr to yr if they are the PP1D. It's the 5on5 production that jumps a D-man into that eliteness.
Erik Karlsson, the top of the Elite Fantasy D-man for yrs. This was his PP vs 5on5 production from 2016-19
GP - 283
PPP - 91pts (26/82gp)
ESP - 166pts (48/82gp)
PPP% - 35% of his points were PPP.
PPP% in his last season - 21%
John Carlson has been a beast as a Fantasy D-man too:
John Carlson (2016-19)
GP - 290
PPP - 95 (26.9/82gp)
ESP - 117 (33.1/82gp)
PPP% - 44% of his points were PPP
PPP% in his last season - 47%
Then Brent Burns:
Brent Burns (2016-19)
GP - 328
PPP - 110 (27.5/82gp)
ESP - 182 (45.5/82GP)
PPP% - 37.7% of his points were PPP
PP% in his last season - 35.9%
A SOLID number of PPP is high 20's (26+). The top guys do it often and it's pretty interesting how consistent that number is. Now, the difference from John Carlson (FINALLY ranked high and considered great) and a Brent Burns (consistently ranked high but that's due to goals) and Karlsson (82pts, come on) is the Even Strength Stuff. So what did Chabot do last yr?
Chabot
GP - 70
PPP - 17 (19.9/82GP)
ESP - 38 (44.5/82GP)
PPP% - 30.9%
His PPP% is pretty standard. IF he can add a few points to that PP, and get it to 22pts. He shoulllddd be able to get roughly get 22ppp, 49ESP for a total of 71pts.
12 Team, H2H, Keep 6 (in Bold)
G, A, Pts, PPP, FW, SOG, Hits, Blocks
W, Saves, S%, GAA, Game Started
2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 1Util, 2G, 5BN, 2IR, 1IR+, 1NA
C: Horvat, Trocheck
LW: J. Robertson, Byfield (C), Guenther
RW: Pavelski (C), Giroux (C), Svechnikov (LW)
D: Fox, Makar, Bouchard, Morrissey, Gudas
Util: Meier (LW, RW)
G: Oettinger, Georgiev, Samsonov, Woll
There's no way of knowing for sure when a team will "get it together".
I would estimate that the average time for turning a bottom-dweller into a playoff-team is 4 years.
But that doesn't mean 4 years... it means "could be TWO years... could be SIX years". [Important note!]
Now, there's a certain amount of luck involved there as well.
History, though - is a valuable source here:
Here's a list of last place teams and you can see how long it took them:
2017-18 Buffalo 62pts.
2016-17 Colorado 48pts.
2015-16 Toronto 69pts.
2014-15 Buffalo 54pts.
2013-14 Buffalo 52pts.
2012-13 Florida 36pts (48gp season)
2011-12 Columbus 65pts
2010-11 Edmonton 62pts
COL and TOR basically turned their teams around in just TWO years.
Colorado had a good bit of luck in that their draft picks have really panned out well... and they had MacKinnon still finding his game in 2016-17.
Toronto had the good bit of luck of Matthews... the did a smart move to bottom out for a shot at that, moving Kessel to rebuild, and landed a top tier coach. And they landed Tavares.
BUF and EDM haven't been able to bring in supporting players around their top-end draft superstars.
They haven't added any quality big name UFAs. They haven't made any great trades.
It's very hit & miss... but a rebuild could be TWO years... it could be FIVE+ plus years.
COL (Denver) & TOR also had budget funding from their owner.
So they could pay for a great coach.
TOR could pay Freddie Andersen and Tavares.
COL got really fortunate in moving Duchene for an INCREDIBLE return.
Ottawa has to have something break right for them... and that thing has to be the #1 pick and Lafreniere... and that's only a 30%(ish) chance.
I think they'll be more of a smaller market struggle, like EDM and BUF.
I really think it's about 50% on four years...
and 50% on maybe-not-at-all (EDM/BUF)...
How do you all see Brannstrom factoring in here?
Would the Sens play with 2 Ds on the PP1? For now at least I’d think that is possible. White, Tkachuk, Chabot leaves room for 2 more. Personally I’d think Brannstrom will turn into a better option than their other forwards in the near future. Unless I am forgetting someone.
Also, many seem to think. Chabot will be a better offensive player than Brannstrom, thus assuring his PP1 position if they don’t run with 2 Ds. I am not as sure. Chabot is terrific. But Brans seems like he could be just as good if not better. Others have disagreed.
Either way, Chabot is one of the young Ds worth betting on towards the future. He certainly has what it takes.
18 Team H2H Dynasty 9x4 cat. Roster 30 + 2 NA, 4 DL. 4C,4LW,4RW,6D,1G,11BN
Scoring cats are G, A, +\-, PIM, PPP, SHP, FW, HIT, BLK
W, GAA, SV%, SHO.
C: Crosby, Horvat, , E. Lindholm (RW), Aho, W. Johnston (RW), Bjugstad,
LW: Marchand, J. Benn, E. Kane, Fiala, Barbashev (C), Schwartz (C), Namestikov (C)
RW: M. Tkachuk (LW), JT Miller (C), Batherson, Hyman (LW), Frederic (C), Palmieri
D: J. Carlson, Josi, Doughty, Pietrangelo, Seider, Gudas, Ekman-Larsson,
G: Vasilievkiy, Shesterkin, Husso
NA: Mukhamadullin (D), I. Rosen (RW), D. .Levi (G)
LTIR: Landeskog (LW), Dach (C)