Long keeper thread for 4 expert questions
Questions at the bottom, feel free to read my rant before, or not.
Team in signature.
Keep as many as you want.
Roster from 24 to 30, 10% above real NHL cap.
Start 2G, 6D, 3C, 3LW and 3RW each week, but it's not H2H.
I will have approximately 20M to draft :
- A starting goalie better than Corey Crawford (will drop)
- A starting defenseman that will be cheaper than Sami Vatanen (will drop) while getting approximately as many points
- A starting winger that will get me as many points as possible
I have the fifth overall pick, and based on my experience in this league, the first round is usually where all the ELC guys are picked, the second round pick is usually where defenseman and goalies with value contracts are picked, and third round and beyond is where people have a better idea of their cap space left and attempt to draft the high-priced guys that have been dropped this year or past years... or guys pick long-shots, cheap projects for future years.
I expect the following three guys to be drafted 1, 2 and 3 :
Jack Hughes, Kappo Kakko and Cale Makar. If one of these three make it to my pick, I slam dunk it in.
But here's where things get more interesting.
I need help to figure out who to pick 5th.
Logical choice would be to go for one of the following D :
Quinn Hughes
Dante Fabbro
Adam Fox
Bowen Byram
I think Hughes has the highest upside of the four for this year and next, but he has already burned one year of his ELC. Fabbro also has only 2 years left, and I think his impact will be smaller than Hughes, but he's on this list because I *think* QHughes will be picked fourth. Fox is more of an unknown with DeAngelo likely ahead of him, but he's got 3 years on his ELC, which can be huge in 2021-2022. Byram is also a wildcard to me, I think he'll slide this year, and will have him on my roster for 4 seasons at his ELC, but won't give me much for two years, and then, might be stuck behind Makar and Girard -- thus in a situation similar than Fabbro.
None of these guys will make it to my 2nd round pick, which would force me to fallback to Cernak for short-term investment (only 1y on ELC) or Sandin or Joseph (and force both Grzcelyk and Brannstrom on my every week roster instead)... unless Pettersson signs super cheap in Pittsburgh.
I could be aggressive a draft a goalie. No goalie has ever been drafted ahead of the 10th overall pick for as long as I can remember (league is 15 years strong), but that was last year, and it feels like people want to stash as many prospects as possible on their roster.
Jordan Binnington (4.55 and 4.25) and David Rittich (2.75 for two years) are both goalies I think could be number ones and start 50-55 games, but then again, both don't have the track record to justify passing on elite D talent. Knowing the needs of the teams picking before me in the second round, I expect both to be gone at the beginning of the 2nd round, unless one prefers Koskinen in EDM for his longer term contract.
There's also Elvis Merzlikins (one year) and Mackenzie Blackwood (one year) who could steal the #1 spot, but both aren't locks either, and would be Plan B solutions in the second round.
And finally there's Shesterkin who wouldn't fill my need for short term gains, but is really appealing. Samsonov is the guy who got drafted 10th overall last year, and I expect him to be gone once I draft 19th in the second round.
Also, up front, I need an impact player. Guys with high contracts are rarely drafted in the first round. But nobody thought Ovechkin would repeat 80+ points two years in a row in his mid-30s. Most guides, including Dobber's, still have him in the mid-80s. Though I expect him to be gone late 2nd or early 3rd, there's a chance he'll be drafted early in the second round. Ryan O'Reilly is the only other 70+ forward available to a decent contract (sorry, Jamie Benn), but I already have my 3 Cs, so I kinda need Ovechkin. The second tier of players (high 50s with potential for high 60s) includes Nylander, Gusev, Neiderreiter, Tatar, A Johnsson and Krejci.
Finally, guys like Kravtsov, Batherson, and other forwards like Dach drafted this year and who have signed their ELC this year are available, but they're not what I need right now.
Question #1 Which D do you prefer considering their contract situation :
Quinn Hughes
Dante Fabbro
Adam Fox
Bowen Byram
Question #2 Which G do you prefer, considering their contract situation :
Jordan Binnington
David Rittich
Mikko Koskinen
Elvis Merzlikins
Mackenzie Blackwood
Question #3 Which 55-65pts player do you prefer, considering their contract situation for the next three years :
William Nylander (9 - 6 - 6)
Anders Lee (9 - 5.85 - 9)
Nino Niderreiter (5.85 - 4.25 - 5.475)
Tomas Tatar (5.5 - 4.2 - UFA)
Andreas Johsson (5 - 3.6 - 2.5)
Nikita Gusev (5 - 4 - UFA)
Question #4 Knowing that I was out of the playoffs but think I can be a top-4 (and making $$) this year, which option do you prefer :
a) Best D (Hughes/Fabbro/Fox), average G (maybe Koskinen or Merzlikins) and the worst of the forwards.
b) Best D, likely the best forward of the list, and a terrible starter (worst of the list, or at worse, redraft Crawford)
c) Ovechkin, middle goalie, trust Brannstrom and Grzelcyk to play 80 games and 20+ points.
d) Ovechkin, average D, terrible starter
e) Your first choice goalie, the best forward of the list, trust Brannstrom/Grzelcyk
f) Your first choice goalie, An average D, the worst forward of this list.
I wish my posts weren't complex, but I like it complex, and if it was easy, I would seek others opinion. Many thanks to all who'll take the time to read my post and share their thoughts : you are insane!
14 Teams, PTS Only, Salary, Full Keep, Start 2G 6D 3C 3LW 3RW
G- Gustafsson, Korpisalo, Woll
D- Burns, Forsling, Brannstrom, Peru, Liljgren, Addison, ?, POJoseph, Jiricek
C- Barkov, Eichel, Larkin, Nelson, Rossi
LW- Marchessault, Zucc, Hagel, ?, Holtz
RW- Terry, Tarasenko, Pavelski, Kakko, Brink
18 teams, PTS Only, Top G, Top4 D, Top10 F, Full Keep with a twist
G- Shest, Luukkanen
D- Seider Dunn Hedman Pionk Brannstrom Peru
F- Scheifele Reinhart JT Miller Hyman Malkin Lindholm Zucc Giroux Marchmant Hartman Bjorkstrand Krebs T Raddysh Jeannot Brink Poulin Perreault Cristall