Rank these...

[pumpkinxyz]

Rank for points only next season. Also who would be your must owns in a cap league?


Group 1
Mantha $3,3 (1 year left)
Dadanov $4 (1)
Athanasiou $3 (1)
Bjorkstrand $2,5 (2)
Kase $2,6 (2)
Palmieri $4,65 (2)
Galchenyuk $4,9 (1)
Coyle $3,2 (1)

Group 2
Hertl $5,625 (3)
Zibanejad $5,35 (3)
Kuznetsov $7,8 (6)
Backstrom $6,7 (1)
O'Rielly $7,5 (4)
Schmaltz $5,85 (7)
Horvat $5,5 (4)

[mounD]

Group 1:

Dadonov
Mantha (must own)
Palmieri
Kase (must own)
Galchenyuk
Athanasiou
Bjorkstrand
Coyle

Group 2:

Kuznetsov
Backstrom
Zibanejad (must own)
Hertl (must own)
O'Rielly
Horvat
Schmaltz

These rankings don't take salary into account, they're just pure points projections.

The "must own" guys are noted in parenthesis. I think Kase is the best value bet for $2.6 million and 60 points wouldn't be a surprise. Big breakout candidate with great underlying numbers and a nice looking development trajectory. Mantha is also a great contract $3.3 million, but Kase has the additional year at his price while Mantha is likely to get paid. In terms of the group 2 guys, Zibanejad and Hertl provide the best value in my opinion. Both 70-point guys around the $5.5 million mark. I'd prefer these guys to Mantha in terms of a pure value standpoint, as each has 3 years left on these really affordable deals, but it's close with Kase. Again, this is just a value judgment not a straight-across projection.

[pumpkinxyz]

Group 1:

Dadonov
Mantha (must own)
Palmieri
Kase (must own)
Galchenyuk
Athanasiou
Bjorkstrand
Coyle

Group 2:

Kuznetsov
Backstrom
Zibanejad (must own)
Hertl (must own)
O'Rielly
Horvat
Schmaltz

These rankings don't take salary into account, they're just pure points projections.

The "must own" guys are noted in parenthesis. I think Kase is the best value bet for $2.6 million and 60 points wouldn't be a surprise. Big breakout candidate with great underlying numbers and a nice looking development trajectory. Mantha is also a great contract $3.3 million, but Kase has the additional year at his price while Mantha is likely to get paid. In terms of the group 2 guys, Zibanejad and Hertl provide the best value in my opinion. Both 70-point guys around the $5.5 million mark. I'd prefer these guys to Mantha in terms of a pure value standpoint, as each has 3 years left on these really affordable deals, but it's close with Kase. Again, this is just a value judgment not a straight-across projection.

Great feedback mounD. Thanks. Would rep but apparently I have to spread it around.

[Dover]

Group 1, i like Dadonov,Mantha and Kase
Group 2 , Zibanejad, Hertl and Backstrom

[j0hn_d0e]

Rank for points only next season. Also who would be your must owns in a cap league?


Group 1
Mantha
Dadanov
Athanasiou
Bjorkstrand
Kase
Palmieri
Galchenyuk
Coyle

Group 2
Hertl
Zibanejad
Kuznetsov
Backstrom
O'Rielly
Schmaltz
Horvat

Curious to know why you separate the forwards to 2 groups?
To the question:
Group 1 - I like the most Mantha and Dadonov. Athanasiou, Palmieri and Galchenuyk are behind in that order.
Group 2 - I like pretty much everyone for the next season. Leading the way are Kuznetsov, Zibanejad and Backstrom. O'Rielly, Hertl and Horvat being on the second tier for me.

[pumpkinxyz]

Curious to know why you separate the forwards to 2 groups?

Basically when I prepare for the draft every season I divide players into 3 categories based on salary for both forwards and D (low = up to $2M, Medium = $2-5, High = $5+...this might go up to 6+ with the rising cap)

Since it's a salary cap league I determine how many from each category I must draft to fit under the cap, draw up a list, rank them and identify ''must own'' players in each category. I find this helps me with difficult choices during the draft and maximize the effectiveness of my roster. Then I draw up a few different scenarios depending on available players in the first 3-5 rounds (guessing who might be drafted by other GMs). I keep a copy of every year's draft to try and identify drafting styles for each GM.

It's not a perfect system by any means, but that's how I've had the most success so far building winning teams. I've tried drafting only the best players available and trying to deal with cap issues afterwards without much success. This might be due to other GMs not willing for the most part to make trades at the beginning of the season.

Would be curious to know how other people prepare for their drafts!?

[j0hn_d0e]

Basically when I prepare for the draft every season I divide players into 3 categories based on salary for both forwards and D (low = up to $2M, Medium = $2-5, High = $5+...this might go up to 6+ with the rising cap)

Since it's a salary cap league I determine how many from each category I must draft to fit under the cap, draw up a list, rank them and identify ''must own'' players in each category. I find this helps me with difficult choices during the draft and maximize the effectiveness of my roster. Then I draw up a few different scenarios depending on available players in the first 3-5 rounds (guessing who might be drafted by other GMs). I keep a copy of every year's draft to try and identify drafting styles for each GM.

It's not a perfect system by any means, but that's how I've had the most success so far building winning teams. I've tried drafting only the best players available and trying to deal with cap issues afterwards without much success. This might be due to other GMs not willing for the most part to make trades at the beginning of the season.

Would be curious to know how other people prepare for their drafts!?

Thanks for clearing this out. You are an example why hard work is key to success. Great job!

Would be curious to know how other people prepare for their drafts!?

I didn't play in a cap league yet. My specialty are the category leagues. Other than doing research on every team's situation - new signings, prospects coming up, lines, injuries and stuff like that, mostly for me is a gut feeling on draft day. Because some players are similar in production( or in my mind could be for the season) Im trying to get the best value players most of the time. But like every year, theres a lot FA pickups. Just by following the league and the hot streaks is so important. Just an example: you dont win by having one of the top snipers in the league in Laine, who scored half of his goals in November, you do by being active in FA.
On draft day I have a system where I add players that I would target on a text document.
it looks something like that:
1-16
2-17
3-32
4-33
5-64 marchessault-68 forsberg-55
6-65 monahan-78
-doing that for every round and pick in that round
if Marchessault is ranked my the site 68th, Im putting him around my closest pick for a possible target
even if Monahan is 78 I would reach just to get him because if I wait until my next pick he will be gone
-I may as many as 6-7 or even more players ''figting'' for a round.
-Also depends of what positions I already drafted. That will change some of my target for the later round...

meanwhile I found my text doc. from last year. I will copy the first few rounds:

1-1 MCJESUS

2-32 Barkov-43 Scheifele-44 Kane-46 Eichel-38 Bergeron-34
Panarin-31 Marner-36
3-33 Kopitar-31 William Karlsson-59 Marchessault-64 josi-48

4-64 Trocheck-70 Rakell-68 Subban-67 Marchessault-64 Pavelski-53
Aho-61

[mounD]

I'll edit this with a more detailed response later, but one thing I will say about draft preparation is to utilize as many sources as possible in determining player values. Often fantasy GMs are hyper-focused on the boxcar stats that show up on the scoresheet, but we already know that possession-based metrics and xG are better indicators of future scoring than past points. I personally like the RAPM models from Evolving-Hockey. @ChartingHockey always discussed GSAA for netminders, and the Goals Above Replacement model is interesting. Take a look at Ondrej Kase's RAPM impacts, for example:

kase3yr.png

This three-year sample just SCREAMS of a player waiting to break out as a high-end scorer. It's just a matter of opportunity (and health in Kase's case). Often looking under the hood at some of these types of statistics can help you identify value where other managers might not even be looking. Kase is a more extreme example because he's pretty well known among hardcore fantasy folks now, but those in the know have been on Kase for quite some time already.

[j0hn_d0e]

I'll edit this with a more detailed response later, but one thing I will say about draft preparation is to utilize as many sources as possible in determining player values. Often fantasy GMs are hyper-focused on the boxcar stats that show up on the scoresheet, but we already know that possession-based metrics and xG are better indicators of future scoring than past points. I personally like the RAPM models from Evolving-Hockey. @ChartingHockey always discussed GSAA for netminders, and the Goals Above Replacement model is interesting. Take a look at Ondrej Kase's RAPM impacts, for example:

kase3yr.png

This three-year sample just SCREAMS of a player waiting to break out as a high-end scorer. It's just a matter of opportunity (and health in Kase's case). Often looking under the hood at some of these types of statistics can help you identify value where other managers might not even be looking. Kase is a more extreme example because he's pretty well known among hardcore fantasy folks now, but those in the know have been on Kase for quite some time already.

I wont even pretend to know what all this even means. Also these pictures that you are posting are like a rocket science to me what the scales are showing? 0 to 3. Is that plus/minus indicator?

[kingpin_co]

Group 1
Dadanov
Mantha
Galchenyuk
Athanasiou
Kase
Coyle
Bjorkstrand
Palmieri


Group 2
Backstrom
Zibanejad
Kuznetsov
O'Rielly
Schmaltz
Hertl
Horvat

[mounD]

I wont even pretend to know what all this even means. Also these pictures that you are posting are like a rocket science to me what the scales are showing? 0 to 3. Is that plus/minus indicator?

Each bar represents a different metric. As you can see along the x axis (the bottom) the statistics measured are Goals For%, Offensive expected Goals (xG), Offensive CorsiFor impact, Defensive xG impact, and defensive CF impact (shot suppression).

The Y-axis with the number scale represents how many standard deviations above or below average the player's production was in that particular category. Essentially, Kase's chart indicates a player who is pretty much two entire standard deviations above average in expected goals impact (offensively and defensively), CorsiFor possession impacts (both offensively and defensively), but whose actual Goals For % production hasn't quite matched up with how good the rest of his profile has indicated. With how good he's been on a per-game basis already, there's really big potential to greatly improve his GF% impacts.

Another important thing about these RAPM graphs, compared with just raw xG% and CorsiFor numbers, they are regressed using modeling to isolate the player's individual impacts to those particular numbers. Essentially that's just a fancy way of saying they're more accurately identifying the player's individual contributions than just looking at the raw stats.

[tobias]

* = cap league "must owns" for one year
** = cap league "must owns" beyond one year


Group 1
Dadanov *
Mantha *
Palmieri *
Galchenyuk
Kase
Bjorkstrand
Coyle


Group 2
Kuznetsov **
Backstrom *
O'Reilly
Zibanejad **
Hertl **
Schmaltz **
Horvat **

[Luffy D Monkey]

I'd recommend posting salary because I don't have them all memorized and I don't want to go look them up.

However, a player I covet highly in my only league, and won't be able to pry away from his owner, is Zibenajad.

[pumpkinxyz]

I'd recommend posting salary because I don't have them all memorized and I don't want to go look them up.

However, a player I covet highly in my only league, and won't be able to pry away from his owner, is Zibenajad.

Salaries and duration have been added.

[j0hn_d0e]

Each bar represents a different metric. As you can see along the x axis (the bottom) the statistics measured are Goals For%, Offensive expected Goals (xG), Offensive CorsiFor impact, Defensive xG impact, and defensive CF impact (shot suppression).

The Y-axis with the number scale represents how many standard deviations above or below average the player's production was in that particular category. Essentially, Kase's chart indicates a player who is pretty much two entire standard deviations above average in expected goals impact (offensively and defensively), CorsiFor possession impacts (both offensively and defensively), but whose actual Goals For % production hasn't quite matched up with how good the rest of his profile has indicated. With how good he's been on a per-game basis already, there's really big potential to greatly improve his GF% impacts.

Another important thing about these RAPM graphs, compared with just raw xG% and CorsiFor numbers, they are regressed using modeling to isolate the player's individual impacts to those particular numbers. Essentially that's just a fancy way of saying they're more accurately identifying the player's individual contributions than just looking at the raw stats.

Once again great stuff from you mounD the hockey Guru Correct me if I'm wrong but some of the stats could just continue to happen for 2-3 years in a row. Despite that the percentage in one particular stat line doesn't match (Kase's case) with the others of his profile, that could just continue to happen. A team's shooting % when a paricular player is on the ice could be so low despite his great play. And the opposite - another players are getting lucky in that regard year after year. I can't predict those

But I get it that the stats you are looking at are a viable sourse of what is more possible to happen and what could you expect from that player.