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Thread: Rielly and Barrie

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    Default Rielly and Barrie

    I canít sit back and listen to the postings that Rielly is going to take a hit because Barrie is now in Toronto. Rielly will be just as effective as he was last year if not better. All the Leafs did was replace Gardiner with a better and cheaper option. Barrie should now be seen as a second pairing defenceman with PP2 time. He may get the odd sniff of PP1 just to mix things up sometimes.

    I have never ever seen a team bring in a defensive liability with fewer points to replace their PP1 stud with more points following a breakout year. Does everyone remember how Brent Burnsí numbers were supposed to take a hit because the Sharks got Karlsson? Well Burns beat his career high in points this past season and looked better then ever. Whereas EKís number went down just a little from .87 ppg to .85 ppg.

    Draft Rielly like you normally would. Do not draft Barrie the same way as you would have last season. Also a very bold prediction, Rielly will be the Leafs next captain and take a hometown discount on his next contract. If you canít tell, Iím very high on Rielly but Iím not a Leafs fan.

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    Default Re: Rielly and Barrie

    The main difference between Barrie and Gardiner, despite the fact that Gardiner is insanely underrated and probably a much better all-around option, is the fact that Barrie is a RH option whereas Gardiner was LH behind Rielly for minutes. With Dermott (LHD) injured and likely to miss a couple months, their top4 to start the year will probably look something like:

    Rielly-Ceci
    Muzzin-Barrie

    I don't know about you, but I'm pretty sure I'd feel a lot better about Muzzin-Barrie than I would about Rielly-Ceci getting huge minutes at 5v5. Once Dermott is back in the fold, I would guess within a month or so he should be in that top4, possibly playing with Rielly, but until that point I would imagine Muzzin-Barrie to be the more heavily used pairing at even strength. At least they should be, as that's a much stronger pair than anything involving Cody Ceci.

    Another thing to consider is the price paid to acquire Barrie. He's a pretty strong PP performer, but has limitations in terms of his defensive impact. He's always had negative impacts in terms of Defensive xG and CF; however, he's typically outperformed his offensive xG and CF impacts. While I don't think Rielly is really going to be diminished, I think it would be prudent to assume that Barrie gets at least some opportunity for PP1 minutes - perhaps a 75/25 type split in Rielly's favor. There's also the possibility that the Leafs use 3F-2D setup with Marner-Tavares-Matthews, Barrie-Rielly. This isn't entirely out of the question, as Barrie has legitimate shooting talent and could operate essentially as a F on that unit. I expect they'll get creative to ensure that both Rielly and Barrie see deployment in meaningful PP minutes.

    Both guys are going to be pretty successful if I had to guess. Rielly should be drafted right after the Burns/Karlsson/Carlson tier of guys are gone, and Barrie isn't too far behind. I could see Rielly's production taking a slight hit only because he had an individual Shooting% at 9.0 last season when his career average is closer to 5%. Barrie is arguably a more talented shooter, and that could be a skill featured on that top unit. The bottom line, though, is that the Leafs have some more interesting options with Rielly (LH) and Barrie (RH) in the fold, and some different looks are possible.
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    Default Re: Rielly and Barrie

    Even if Barrie didn't enter the equation this Leafs fan would be hesitant to say Rielly repeats 70+. His shooting percentage was high for a Dman as was his 5on5 sh%. I'd be more comfortable calling him a 60pt guy most years which is still awesome. Plus he's young and on a high offense team which is great for keeper leagues.

    Barrie coming in makes it so hard to predict what will happen or how the units shake out. Rielly though has the seniority factor and the trust of Babcock which goes a long way in Toronto.

    The likely scenario is Barrie dropping to maybe 40pts and Rielly settling around 60. The past couple of seasons have seen Rielly and his next closest competition (Gardiner up until now) splitting about 100pts between them. Year before last they both had 50, last year Rielly had 72 and Gards had 30.
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    Default Re: Rielly and Barrie

    Quote Originally Posted by FrozenInferno View Post
    Even if Barrie didn't enter the equation this Leafs fan would be hesitant to say Rielly repeats 70+. His shooting percentage was high for a Dman as was his 5on5 sh%. I'd be more comfortable calling him a 60pt guy most years which is still awesome. Plus he's young and on a high offense team which is great for keeper leagues.

    Barrie coming in makes it so hard to predict what will happen or how the units shake out. Rielly though has the seniority factor and the trust of Babcock which goes a long way in Toronto.

    The likely scenario is Barrie dropping to maybe 40pts and Rielly settling around 60. The past couple of seasons have seen Rielly and his next closest competition (Gardiner up until now) splitting about 100pts between them. Year before last they both had 50, last year Rielly had 72 and Gards had 30.
    Great post. Extremely insightful. I couldn't agree more with everything you've written.

    I will add that I don't see Barrie re-signing in Toronto, so in the long-term I certainly don't see Barrie impacting Rielly's value. I feel Rielly will be a top 5 option for his position this coming season, even with Barrie around, and will continue to be so for years to come after Barrie is gone.
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    Default Re: Rielly and Barrie

    Barrie's 3 year average is roughly .7 points per game, which is a 57-point pace over a full 82-game season. That includes his dreadful 16-17 season in which the Avalanche only managed 48 standings points. If he only puts up 40 points, that would be a massive decrease . It's not impossible, it just seems really unlikely. He's scored close to a 65-point pace over the past two seasons. 40 points would be a 25-point decrease from that pace, representing almost 40% of his total production. That's just crazy low, even if he's only getting say 30% of the team's PP time after Rielly's 60%.
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    LW: Marchand, Landeskog, Marchessault, Lee
    RW: Stamkos, Laine, Hertl, Palmieri, Nino
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    G: Bobrovsky, Holtby, Lehner

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    Default Re: Rielly and Barrie

    I think both will continue to be solid fantasy producers and both still wont help Toronto in their own end, which is where they really need the help the most when it comes to the actual games and not fantasy.


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