Early Thoughts on Last Keeper

[mounD]

This is for the league in my signature. The 24 players I have listed on my main roster are my current "keepers," but I've also picked up some extra players on my roster due to IR spots. I've got a few interesting options for the last keeper slot, but I think it comes down to: Lee, Niederreiter, or Hornqvist. I've also got Ondrej Kase, but I don't think he's really a consideration with the rest of those guys.

I guess I'm currently leaning towards Lee, as he's got the goal scoring pedigree and he's a reliable multi-cat asset with 200+ shots and 100+ Hits regularly. He also had a really solid +/- with Trotz's defensive system, but I know that's a pretty random stat in general. I don't think Lee is going to score 40 goals playing in this system, but I'm thinking he's pretty safe for 25-30 goals, 50+ points, and really solid peripherals. Lee seems like the safe choice.

Then there's El Nino. Minnesota basically got rid of this guy for nothing, and then he goes to Carolina and plays at nearly a 70-point pace skating primarly with Aho at 5v5. Only 7 of his 30 points with Carolina came with the man advantage, so that looks good that he was a strong 5v5 contributor. He had nearly 3 shots and 1.5 Hits per game, averaging over 18 minutes with the Hurricanes. The possession numbers look really good, too ... My only question is with guys like Svechnikov developing, and even someone like Necas breaking into the NHL pretty soon, is Niederreiter's spot at the top of the Canes' lineup safe? Is he going to come close to replicating the type of numbers he put up down the stretch, or is it going to be more like the playoffs? Granted, he was seeing 18:30 per game in the postseason, but the production fell off a cliff with only 4 points in 15 games. I'm really intrigued by the upside here, especially since Nino has LW/RW eligibility right now ...

I also haven't completely forgotten about Patric Hornqvist. His ice time was down about 1.5 minutes to the 15:30 range last season, but he dealt with some injuries. With the departure of Phil Kessel, his spot on PP1 should be pretty safe regardless what type of formation the Penguins end up using with the man advantage. His 5v5 production last season was actually pretty much on par with prior seasons, but Hornqvist only had 12 PPP. If he can get closer to his 2016-17 (17 PPP) and 2017-18 (22 PPP) totals, then we could see Hornvist closer to the 50-point, 200+ shot, 150 Hit fantasy monster from seasons past. I know there are some question marks here with deployment, and a potential decline due to his rough play style, but he's an interesting option.

What do you guys think? Who would you choose as your last keeper?

[NewGarbageGoal]

This is for the league in my signature. The 24 players I have listed on my main roster are my current "keepers," but I've also picked up some extra players on my roster due to IR spots. I've got a few interesting options for the last keeper slot, but I think it comes down to: Lee, Niederreiter, or Hornqvist. I've also got Ondrej Kase, but I don't think he's really a consideration with the rest of those guys.

I guess I'm currently leaning towards Lee, as he's got the goal scoring pedigree and he's a reliable multi-cat asset with 200+ shots and 100+ Hits regularly. He also had a really solid +/- with Trotz's defensive system, but I know that's a pretty random stat in general. I don't think Lee is going to score 40 goals playing in this system, but I'm thinking he's pretty safe for 25-30 goals, 50+ points, and really solid peripherals. Lee seems like the safe choice.

Then there's El Nino. Minnesota basically got rid of this guy for nothing, and then he goes to Carolina and plays at nearly a 70-point pace skating primarly with Aho at 5v5. Only 7 of his 30 points with Carolina came with the man advantage, so that looks good that he was a strong 5v5 contributor. He had nearly 3 shots and 1.5 Hits per game, averaging over 18 minutes with the Hurricanes. The possession numbers look really good, too ... My only question is with guys like Svechnikov developing, and even someone like Necas breaking into the NHL pretty soon, is Niederreiter's spot at the top of the Canes' lineup safe? Is he going to come close to replicating the type of numbers he put up down the stretch, or is it going to be more like the playoffs? Granted, he was seeing 18:30 per game in the postseason, but the production fell off a cliff with only 4 points in 15 games. I'm really intrigued by the upside here, especially since Nino has LW/RW eligibility right now ...

I also haven't completely forgotten about Patric Hornqvist. His ice time was down about 1.5 minutes to the 15:30 range last season, but he dealt with some injuries. With the departure of Phil Kessel, his spot on PP1 should be pretty safe regardless what type of formation the Penguins end up using with the man advantage. His 5v5 production last season was actually pretty much on par with prior seasons, but Hornqvist only had 12 PPP. If he can get closer to his 2016-17 (17 PPP) and 2017-18 (22 PPP) totals, then we could see Hornvist closer to the 50-point, 200+ shot, 150 Hit fantasy monster from seasons past. I know there are some question marks here with deployment, and a potential decline due to his rough play style, but he's an interesting option.

What do you guys think? Who would you choose as your last keeper?

I'd go with Lee, maybe Hornqvist. Probably Lee though. Safest upside in peripherals and points/goals. Hornqvist has better peripheral upside and will get every opportunity to play with one of Malkin/Crosby. I doubt he'll ever be as good as he used to be though for point/goal production though which puts him as the worst option in that regard. Nino probably has the best upside in terms of linemates and potential, but I'd say he's the least likely to hit his upside based on performance history and amount of internal competition. Lee has very little competition for what he does, probably even less than Hornqvist, and is the likeliest to hit his upside in terms of points/goals or come close to it. Only reason I'd consider Horny is because I like his peripherals and centers better.

[LuigiC173]

Lee, end of the day you cannot steer away from one of the more proven goal scorers in the game today.

[metaldude26]

You're likely getting similar production out of whomever you keep for this season. I lean slightly towards Niederreiter but that's me thinking about him likely being the best keeper beyond the upcoming season.

[als_revenge]

I'd probably lean Nino (higher risk, higher reward), but agree Lee is the safe choice.

I also wonder if you really need that Griess (your 4th goalie who will be in a time share at best)? My guess is he will be dropped and replaced by Shesterkin after a year; you could cut bait now and keep both forwards.

[mounD]

I'd probably lean Nino (higher risk, higher reward), but agree Lee is the safe choice.

I also wonder if you really need that Griess (your 4th goalie who will be in a time share at best)? My guess is he will be dropped and replaced by Shesterkin after a year; you could cut bait now and keep both forwards.

Greiss is probably gone after this season, but that's likely just due to his contract expiring at the end up 19-20. He was a very valuable timeshare goalie (with Lehner) last season, and he should have some value to the Varlamov owner. Trading hasn't opened up yet, and we're still a little ways off from our keeper deadline, so I'll have an opportunity to move him for something, and maybe I can keep both Lee and Nino. The main issue is that lots of goaltenders are kept, and Greiss is likely a lot better than any other available Goalie options, whereas guys like Shaw, Coleman, even Jaden Schwartz are still available on the waiver wire.

If I can get a decent draft pick for Greiss, I'll probably move him. But otherwise I'll just wait until the Varlamov owner runs into some injury trouble. Also, I totally forgot to mention that players on the farm are able to be kept until they've played 60 games for skaters; 30 games for goaltenders. So in all likelihood, I'll be able to keep Shesterkin for free for another season, unless he busts out and starts more than 30 games this year. Greiss is just a stopgap, but he's a pretty valuable one in a situation with upside behind an injury-prone goalie.

[j0hn_d0e]

I guess I'm currently leaning towards Lee, as he's got the goal scoring pedigree and he's a reliable multi-cat asset with 200+ shots and 100+ Hits regularly. I don't think Lee is going to score 40 goals playing in this system, but I'm thinking he's pretty safe for 25-30 goals, 50+ points, and really solid peripherals. Lee seems like the safe choice.

- you said it!

He also had a really solid +/- with Trotz's defensive system, but I know that's a pretty random stat in general.

true but still....

My only question is with guys like Svechnikov developing is Niederreiter's spot at the top of the Canes' lineup safe?

thats my concern too and let's not forget about the signing of Dzingel. Nino is a close second for me but because of the all reasons above Im leaning towards Lee.

[mounD]

Any other thoughts?

[LuigiC173]

don't trust Hornqvist, his brain resembles the innards of a jelly donut at this point, the drop off could come at any time.