Statistically, 1st overall. Normal (gaussian) distribution of statistics suggest that the "extreme" data is fewest in quantity.
Thus, there will typically be largest separation between "highest/best" and "next highest/best"... and then data gets tighter and tighter towards average/typical/common events/data.
[This is easily seen by looking at NHL scoring from any given year... it may look like this: 105, 100, 96, 94, 93, 92, 92... something like that. Biggest gap between highest, properly evidenced if you gathered, say, 10 years of data, grouped the top scorers together and averaged it... grouped the 2nd highest, and averaged that... grouped the 3rd highest and averaged that... you'd see the difference between spots tightening.)
For fantasy hockey, 1st overall, statistically (/proven) is the correct answer - despite what some people may say they "prefer".
#IpickGretzkyWith#1pick
Personally, for me, order of choice would be:
1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd
4. 4th
....
(then there is a hitch, that I use to my favour)
5. Two spots off "the turn"
6. Three spots off "the turn"
7. "The turn" (meaning LAST PICK in round 1, FIRST PICK in round 2)
...
8. 5th
9. 6th
etc... (*This based loosely on a 12-team draft... in a 24-team draft, I'd probably want 5th/6th/7th/8th... before jumping out to wanting those "off the turn" picks)
If you are INCREDIBLY keen (yes, I'm backpatting), then drafting "just off the turn" can have tactical advantage in fantasy hockey snake-style drafts.
I've been tracking this for years in One-Year Leagues.
Say you are Team C... and the draft is coming back to you, then Team B & A will draft inside your picks.
If Team B & A don't have a goalie yet, you might realize that they will both be NEEDING/WANTING a goalie at their pick.
So if YOU need/want a goalie + skater in those two picks... then you should be going GOALIE... B/A/A/B... then SKATER.
Conversely, if Team B & A already seem to have their goalies... and are likely to take skaters...
There, you may go SKATER... knowing they will pass on goalies... and then take your GOALIE after the turn.
I also like the turn in fantasy hockey when drafting a goalie-tandem is CRITICAL.
I hate nabbing one goalie in a 50-50 situation and not getting the 2nd goalie.
Carolina was my team for that this year - which turned out to be a good bet. Also Florida goalie I wanted - didn't turn out so well.
Only LOCK place you can draft all 82gp from a goalie-team is at the turn. But you don't get the ++ strategy of knowing what people "inside" your picks might do.
I've used this well in past one-year drafts for 3+ years now.
Anyways - that's my 2 cents... (since I consider the forums a small fun community to share knowledge... and not personal-guard tactics... even when I know for which league it applies, wink/nod).
P7