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Thread: Spencer Knight. Wait time.

  1. #16
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    Default Re: Spencer Knight. Wait time.

    Only in really deep leagues would I draft a prospect goalie.
    Or if the league put significant value on prospect goalies - then I'm drafting for currency in future deals.

    There doesn't seem to be much point in drafting the top ranked goalie.
    I mean, you can turn around and grab one 2, 3, 4 years further along in development in most 12-16 team leagues off the wire
    Say hello to Kahkonen, Merzlikins, Woll.
    All of which have been added over the past 12mths across most of my pools. Drafted 2 or more years ago.
    In the meantime, those 2 years have been utilized with forwards/defensemen that are now producing.
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    Default Re: Spencer Knight. Wait time.

    My statistical predictions:

    Case 1: Bobrovsky signs long-term with FLA.
    FLA back-up by end of 19/20: 1%
    FLA back-up by end of 20/21: 20%
    FLA back-up by end of 21/22: 50%
    FLA back-up by end of 22/23: 80%
    FLA back-up by end of 23/24: 90%*
    *No goalie a sure thing... he could be a bust, but I'd say odds are only 1/10 (10%) that a guy with his pedigree will be a bust.
    **OBV, Bob would have to get injured or be traded or age badly for Knight to be #1 during this time. Being back-up is key, because it gets him the OPPORTUNITY to play NHL starts.

    Case 2: Bobrovsky does not sign in Florida.
    FLA back-up by end of 19/20: 5%
    FLA back-up by end of 20/21: 40%
    FLA back-up by end of 21/22: 80%
    ---
    FLA starter by end of 21/22: 50%
    FLA starter by end of 22/23: 80%
    FLA starter by end of 23/24: 90%*
    *Same caveat

    Short version: I agree with others. Odds are we'll see him full time on FLA roster during 2021/22, during his 3rd season after draft. So about 3 years.
    Carter Hart came in for FLA this year, at about 2.5 years post-draft... even Hextall may have kept Hart in the AHL for this full (his 3rd season after 2016 draft), if Hextall was GM.
    The other guy that has recently been as "lock" as Carter Hart is Thatcher Demko.
    People were talking Demko as a lock-starter for VAN in summer 2017 & summer 2018.
    Demko, who was draft in 2014. Five years & counting there...


    Personal Long-Standing Conspiracy Theory on Florida:
    I've long held that the FLA owner is going to sell this team for a HUGE profit as soon as Bettman (NHL owners) allow it.
    The Panthers have an early out-clause in their lease (Summer 2023) with the South Florida arena... as long as they can show some massive (-$100m) LOSS number on their ledger.
    This will be NO problem for the Cats, especially if they front-end BIG contracts to Panarin & Bobrovsky - which is EXACTLY why those two WILL happen.
    Also - it works better for Florida to max out their spending - which means they are more likely to WANT to have money tied up in net... until they can OUT and SELL.
    Spencer Knight is a great long-term asset... but he doesn't "hurt the budget" on the NHL roster... and even Tallon knows (likely) about Viola's master front-end spending plan.
    My 2 cents there.

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    Default Re: Spencer Knight. Wait time.

    I think the best comparable here is Ilya samsonov. Also had just as high a pedigree when drafted, but is behind holtby. Maybe when the expansion draft happens then the caps decide it's time to part with holtby, like the pens did with Fleury, but that's a big if, and holtby is younger than. Fleury. If Bob signs for 6-8 years, it's gonna be a real long wait for knight. Talent doesn't always win out with goalies, opportunity does. If Bob doesn't sign in Florida and they go with a short term option, then jump all over knight. Otherwise, it's just too long a wait for me. There were some other very good goalies drafted this year who you could get much later.

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    Default Re: Spencer Knight. Wait time.

    Quote Originally Posted by forsbergfan View Post
    I think the best comparable here is Ilya samsonov. Also had just as high a pedigree when drafted, but is behind holtby. Maybe when the expansion draft happens then the caps decide it's time to part with holtby, like the pens did with Fleury, but that's a big if, and holtby is younger than. Fleury. If Bob signs for 6-8 years, it's gonna be a real long wait for knight. Talent doesn't always win out with goalies, opportunity does. If Bob doesn't sign in Florida and they go with a short term option, then jump all over knight. Otherwise, it's just too long a wait for me. There were some other very good goalies drafted this year who you could get much later.
    Holtby is only signed for 19/20 season. No protection needed
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    Default Re: Spencer Knight. Wait time.

    I'm just as interested in Ilya Konovalov, 20 year old who won KHL rookie of the year putting up great numbers. At this point, he's Edmonton's best future option in net.
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    Default Re: Spencer Knight. Wait time.

    Quote Originally Posted by mounD View Post
    I'm just as interested in Ilya Konovalov, 20 year old who won KHL rookie of the year putting up great numbers. At this point, he's Edmonton's best future option in net.
    I'd say Shane Starrett is still ahead of him as far as prospect goalies go, but hes certainly one to keep an eye on.


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    Default Re: Spencer Knight. Wait time.

    Quote Originally Posted by mounD View Post
    I'm just as interested in Ilya Konovalov, 20 year old who won KHL rookie of the year putting up great numbers. At this point, he's Edmonton's best future option in net.
    Was definitely interested in him, until he became Soilers property.



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    Default Re: Spencer Knight. Wait time.

    Quote Originally Posted by lucafen4 View Post
    Holtby is only signed for 19/20 season. No protection needed
    I find it very hard to believe that the caps are gonna let holtby hit free agency. I think he'll sign an extension way before that point.

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    Default Re: Spencer Knight. Wait time.



    We seem to have gone off the main track here, eh.

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    Default Re: Spencer Knight. Wait time.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post


    We seem to have gone off the main track here, eh.
    I've seen worse


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    Default Re: Spencer Knight. Wait time.

    Quote Originally Posted by Axeman33 View Post
    A lot will depend on what the Panthers do this off-season with their goalies. If they sign Bobrovsky like many seem to think will happen, that will slow down any hope for Knight to take over any time soon, unless they only sign Bobrovsky to a shorter term deal then most expect. Even if Knight is ready in 3-4 years, Bobrovsky will still have a few years left on his deal and considering his age at that time, he will be tough to trade.
    Agreed.

    In a perfect world, Bob signs in FLA for 5 years--year 4 is spent platooning with Knight. Year 5, Bob is backup.
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