Age would almost be a bell curve i would think. Value goes up to 29 - stable to 31/32 - then declines.
- would need to be adjustable based on type of player. A banger would decrease earlier than a contact shy sniper (See Simmonds vs. Kessel)
A young player on a long contact I would see as much more positive than say Burns on a long contract
A 27yr old on an 8yr deal - those 1st 3yrs would be the most valuable, then value would slide over the final 3/4 -
Some grey area as not all players diminish at the same age. Elite players keep it going into mid-30's
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Yeah, the cap going up adds another wrinkle too.
And sorry if you had Skinner on your team. Hopefully you sold on him though, it was a given he was going to be overpaid after a career season in a contract year.
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The formula eventually fell by the wayside and I went back to the gut feeling, which I was doing anyway under a formula. My idea as a whole follows a few basic rules:
1) You can't just go dollars vs points. If you took a formula like that litererally you would end up with a cheap, efficient roster (mostly ELC guys) and not enough firepower to win. Stars still prevail in a cap league.
2) The goal is obviously to maximize output, within the constraints. The production needs to be weighted more than the AAV.
I plugged some capfriendly data from this past season into Excel and whipped up a quick formula. My first (probably bad) attempt at a formula is: pts*pts/(square root of AAV) * 10
PLAYER TEAM POS GP G A P AAV VAL 12. Brayden Point Tampa Bay LightningTBL C, RW 79 41 51 92 919,167 88.3 1. Nikita Kucherov Tampa Bay LightningTBL RW 82 41 87 128 4,766,667 75.0 11. Mitchell Marner Toronto Maple LeafsTOR RW 82 26 68 94 1,744,167 66.9 34. Alex DeBrincat Chicago BlackhawksCHI LW, RW 82 41 35 76 894,166 61.1 35. Jake Guentzel Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT LW, RW 82 40 36 76 925,000 60.1 17. Mikko Rantanen Colorado AvalancheCOL RW 74 31 56 87 1,627,500 59.3 22. Sebastian Aho Carolina HurricanesCAR C, LW 82 30 53 83 1,775,000 51.7 32. Matthew Tkachuk Calgary FlamesCGY LW 80 34 43 77 1,775,000 44.5 5. Brad Marchand Boston BruinsBOS LW 79 36 64 100 6,125,000 40.4 8. Nathan MacKinnon Colorado AvalancheCOL C, RW 82 41 58 99 6,300,000 39.0 2. Connor McDavid Edmonton OilersEDM C 78 41 75 116 12,500,000 38.1 10. Aleksander Barkov Florida PanthersFLA C 82 35 61 96 5,900,000 37.9 4. Leon Draisaitl Edmonton OilersEDM C, LW, RW 82 50 55 105 8,500,000 37.8 7. Johnny Gaudreau Calgary FlamesCGY LW 82 36 63 99 6,750,000 37.7 3. Patrick Kane Chicago BlackhawksCHI RW, C 81 44 66 110 10,500,000 37.3 14. Blake Wheeler Winnipeg JetsWPG RW 82 20 71 91 5,600,000 35.0 13. Jonathan Huberdeau Florida PanthersFLA LW, C 82 30 62 92 5,900,000 34.8 33. Teuvo Teräväinen Carolina HurricanesCAR RW, LW 82 21 55 76 2,860,000 34.2 6. Sidney Crosby Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT C 79 35 65 100 8,700,000 33.9 9. Steven Stamkos Tampa Bay LightningTBL C 82 45 53 98 8,500,000 32.9 18. Artemi Panarin Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ LW 79 28 59 87 6,000,000 30.9 47. Max Domi Montreal CanadiensMTL C, LW 82 28 44 72 3,150,000 29.2 20. Mark Scheifele Winnipeg JetsWPG C 82 38 46 84 6,125,000 28.5 36. Sean Couturier Philadelphia FlyersPHI C 80 33 43 76 4,333,333 27.7 30. Elias Lindholm Calgary FlamesCGY RW, C 81 27 51 78 4,850,000 27.6 42. Auston Matthews Toronto Maple LeafsTOR C 68 37 36 73 3,775,000 27.4 28. Tyler Seguin Dallas StarsDAL C, RW 82 33 47 80 5,750,000 26.7 23. Sean Monahan Calgary FlamesCGY C 78 34 48 82 6,375,000 26.6 15. Alex Ovechkin Washington CapitalsWSH LW, RW 81 51 38 89 9,538,462 25.6 27. David Pastrnak Boston BruinsBOS RW 66 38 43 81 6,666,666 25.4 19. Claude Giroux Philadelphia FlyersPHI LW, C, RW 82 22 63 85 8,275,000 25.1 21. Brent Burns San Jose SharksSJS D 82 16 67 83 8,000,000 24.4 37. Gabriel Landeskog Colorado AvalancheCOL LW 73 34 41 75 5,571,429 23.8 29. Patrice Bergeron Boston BruinsBOS C 65 32 47 79 6,875,000 23.8 25. Phil Kessel Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT RW 82 27 55 82 8,000,000 23.8 40. Mika Zibanejad New York RangersNYR C 82 30 44 74 5,350,000 23.7 16. John Tavares Toronto Maple LeafsTOR C 82 47 41 88 11,000,000 23.3 103. Alex Tuch Vegas Golden KnightsVGK RW 74 20 32 52 1,350,000 23.3 48. Morgan Rielly Toronto Maple LeafsTOR D 82 20 52 72 5,000,000 23.2 39. Tomas Hertl San Jose SharksSJS C, RW 77 35 39 74 5,625,000 23.1 117. Yanni Gourde Tampa Bay LightningTBL RW, LW, C 80 22 26 48 1,000,000 23.0 114. Travis Konecny Philadelphia FlyersPHI RW, LW 82 24 25 49 1,106,667 22.8 31. Ryan O'Reilly St. Louis BluesSTL C 82 28 49 77 7,500,000 21.6 43. Dylan Larkin Detroit Red WingsDET C, LW 76 32 41 73 6,100,000 21.6 24. Jack Eichel Buffalo SabresBUF C 77 28 54 82 10,000,000 21.3 38. Nicklas Bäckström Washington CapitalsWSH C 80 22 52 74 6,700,000 21.2 41. Mark Giordano Calgary FlamesCGY D 78 17 57 74 6,750,000 21.1 146. Kasperi Kapanen Toronto Maple LeafsTOR RW 78 20 24 44 863,333 20.8 148. Andreas Johnsson Toronto Maple LeafsTOR LW 73 20 23 43 787,500 20.8 50. Alexander Radulov Dallas StarsDAL RW 70 29 43 72 6,250,000 20.7
Anyway, not too concerned with how it looks immediately. I'm just hoping to get ideas rolling. Obviously this doesn't factor in age, future production (both factored into Dobber's rankings) or future earnings (which you have as a work in progress I believe).
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Yeah, I put a base one together just to get the top 500 and then mzess with those. Formula for mine is something along the lines of (points^3)/(gamesplayed*doublesqrt(cap))
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Small tweak to my first formula:
12. Brayden Point 117.4 1. Nikita Kucherov 92.5 11. Mitchell Marner 87.3 34. Alex DeBrincat 82.9 35. Jake Guentzel 81.4 17. Mikko Rantanen 78.2 22. Sebastian Aho 68.3 32. Matthew Tkachuk 59.2 5. Brad Marchand 50.7 8. Nathan MacKinnon 49.0 10. Aleksander Barkov 47.8 7. Johnny Gaudreau 47.3 4. Leon Draisaitl 46.8 2. Connor McDavid 46.2 3. Patrick Kane 45.8 33. Teuvo Teräväinen 44.9 14. Blake Wheeler 44.4 13. Jonathan Huberdeau 44.1 6. Sidney Crosby 42.1 9. Steven Stamkos 41.1 18. Artemi Panarin 39.3 47. Max Domi 38.5 20. Mark Scheifele 36.4 36. Sean Couturier 36.1 42. Auston Matthews 36.0 30. Elias Lindholm 35.8 28. Tyler Seguin 34.3 23. Sean Monahan 34.0 117. Yanni Gourde 32.6 27. David Pastrnak 32.5 103. Alex Tuch 32.4 15. Alex Ovechkin 32.2 114. Travis Konecny 32.2 19. Claude Giroux 31.8 21. Brent Burns 30.9 37. Gabriel Landeskog 30.8 40. Mika Zibanejad 30.7 29. Patrice Bergeron 30.5 48. Morgan Rielly 30.2 25. Phil Kessel 30.2 148. Andreas Johnsson 30.0 39. Tomas Hertl 29.9 146. Kasperi Kapanen 29.9 16. John Tavares 29.2 43. Dylan Larkin 27.9 31. Ryan O'Reilly 27.7 38. Nicklas Bäckström 27.3 41. Mark Giordano 27.2 50. Alexander Radulov 26.9 24. Jack Eichel 26.9 131. Jakub Vrána 26.6 126. Tyler Bertuzzi 26.3 26. Jonathan Toews 25.6 44. David Krejci 25.5 45. Mark Stone 25.3 132. Brett Connolly 24.3 49. Evgeny Kuznetsov 23.9 129. Clayton Keller 23.9 121. Josh Anderson 22.7 46. Evgeni Malkin 21.6 145. Zachary Werenski 20.4 104. Eric Staal 19.6 105. Brendan Gallagher 18.9 115. Chris Tierney 18.5 108. Anders Lee 18.3 110. Patrik Laine 18.0 119. Anthony Mantha 17.4 102. Chris Kreider 17.0 101. Torey Krug 16.5 109. Kyle Palmieri 15.7 106. Joe Thornton 15.7 122. Nico Hischier 15.6 123. Andrew Shaw 15.3 116. Viktor Arvidsson 15.2 139. Brady Tkachuk 15.1 113. Carl Söderberg 14.9 133. David Perron 14.5 107. Dustin Brown 14.4 112. Jacob Trouba 14.4 142. Mattias Ekholm 13.8 147. Rasmus Dahlin 13.7 111. Filip Forsberg 13.7 141. John Klingberg 13.5 130. Tyler Johnson 13.4 136. Ryan McDonagh 13.3 149. Jakob Silfverberg 13.2 127. J.T. Miller 13.1 124. Mikael Backlund 13.0 144. Nazem Kadri 12.5 135. Seth Jones 12.4 137. Jeff Petry 12.3 125. Brandon Saad 12.2 134. Travis Zajac 12.0 120. James van Riemsdyk 11.7 143. Oliver Ekman-Larsson 11.3 150. Rasmus Ristolainen 10.9 128. Ryan Suter 10.8 138. Erik Karlsson 10.8 118. Ryan Getzlaf 10.7 140. Drew Doughty 10.4
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No matter what you do though, Point is so far ahead of everyone.
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Using my formula on a larger sample...
Top 100 overall:
12. Brayden Point 117.4 1. Nikita Kucherov 92.5 11. Mitchell Marner 87.3 34. Alex DeBrincat 82.9 35. Jake Guentzel 81.4 17. Mikko Rantanen 78.2 22. Sebastian Aho 68.3 32. Matthew Tkachuk 59.2 5. Brad Marchand 50.7 8. Nathan MacKinnon 49.0 10. Aleksander Barkov 47.8 7. Johnny Gaudreau 47.3 67. Mathew Barzal 46.9 4. Leon Draisaitl 46.8 2. Connor McDavid 46.2 60. Timo Meier 46.0 3. Patrick Kane 45.8 85. Kevin Labanc 45.6 72. Erik Gustafsson 45.3 33. Teuvo Teräväinen 44.9 14. Blake Wheeler 44.4 62. Kyle Connor 44.2 13. Jonathan Huberdeau 44.1 6. Sidney Crosby 42.1 9. Steven Stamkos 41.1 18. Artemi Panarin 39.3 47. Max Domi 38.5 87. Thomas Chabot 38.0 20. Mark Scheifele 36.4 36. Sean Couturier 36.1 42. Auston Matthews 36.0 30. Elias Lindholm 35.8 83. Brock Boeser 35.4 28. Tyler Seguin 34.3 23. Sean Monahan 34.0 117. Yanni Gourde 32.6 27. David Pastrnak 32.5 103. Alex Tuch 32.4 52. Evgeni Dadonov 32.2 15. Alex Ovechkin 32.2 114. Travis Konecny 32.2 84. Ryan Dzingel 32.1 19. Claude Giroux 31.8 21. Brent Burns 30.9 37. Gabriel Landeskog 30.8 40. Mika Zibanejad 30.7 29. Patrice Bergeron 30.5 48. Morgan Rielly 30.2 25. Phil Kessel 30.2 148. Andreas Johnsson 30.0 39. Tomas Hertl 29.9 146. Kasperi Kapanen 29.9 61. Elias Pettersson 29.7 63. Sam Reinhart 29.4 16. John Tavares 29.2 51. Mike Hoffman 28.1 43. Dylan Larkin 27.9 31. Ryan O'Reilly 27.7 38. Nicklas Bäckström 27.3 41. Mark Giordano 27.2 70. Pierre-Luc Dubois 27.0 50. Alexander Radulov 26.9 24. Jack Eichel 26.9 131. Jakub Vrána 26.6 126. Tyler Bertuzzi 26.3 181. Alex Chiasson 26.3 54. Matt Duchene 26.0 55. Logan Couture 26.0 56. Cam Atkinson 25.6 26. Jonathan Toews 25.6 44. David Krejci 25.5 45. Mark Stone 25.3 57. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 25.3 132. Brett Connolly 24.3 78. Dylan Strome 24.0 49. Evgeny Kuznetsov 23.9 129. Clayton Keller 23.9 154. Alexander Kerfoot 23.7 174. Frank Vatrano 22.9 93. Andreas Athanasiou 22.9 173. Anthony Cirelli 22.8 121. Josh Anderson 22.7 53. John Carlson 22.4 155. Jake DeBrusk 22.2 73. Gustav Nyquist 22.0 64. Joe Pavelski 21.9 58. Vladimir Tarasenko 21.9 66. Jeff Skinner 21.8 183. Pavel Buchnevich 21.8 94. Phillip Danault 21.8 46. Evgeni Malkin 21.6 86. Roman Josi 21.1 71. Bo Horvat 21.0 75. Jonathan Marchessault 20.7 145. Zachary Werenski 20.4 231. Anthony Duclair 20.1 68. Keith Yandle 20.1 76. Tyson Barrie 19.7 59. Jakub Voracek 19.7 104. Eric Staal 19.6
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Top 50 D:
72. Erik Gustafsson 45.3 87. Thomas Chabot 38.0 21. Brent Burns 30.9 48. Morgan Rielly 30.2 41. Mark Giordano 27.2 53. John Carlson 22.4 86. Roman Josi 21.1 145. Zachary Werenski 20.4 68. Keith Yandle 20.1 76. Tyson Barrie 19.7 208. Vince Dunn 19.1 101. Torey Krug 16.5 215. Travis Sanheim 15.8 82. Kris Letang 15.4 162. Ryan Ellis 14.9 112. Jacob Trouba 14.4 196. Ryan Pulock 13.8 142. Mattias Ekholm 13.8 89. Victor Hedman 13.8 147. Rasmus Dahlin 13.7 141. John Klingberg 13.5 136. Ryan McDonagh 13.3 159. Darnell Nurse 13.1 135. Seth Jones 12.4 137. Jeff Petry 12.3 263. Anthony Deangelo 11.8 303. Samuel Girard 11.3 143. Oliver Ekman-Larsson 11.3 242. Mikhail Sergachev 11.3 151. Jared Spurgeon 11.1 150. Rasmus Ristolainen 10.9 128. Ryan Suter 10.8 138. Erik Karlsson 10.8 283. Charlie McAvoy 10.4 178. Damon Severson 10.4 140. Drew Doughty 10.4 338. Marcus Pettersson 10.0 240. Esa Lindell 10.0 189. Jake Muzzin 9.6 213. Brandon Montour 9.4 172. Duncan Keith 9.4 165. Alex Pietrangelo 9.0 188. Shayne Gostisbehere 9.0 260. Nate Schmidt 8.8 175. Dougie Hamilton 8.8 348. Filip Hronek 8.5 228. Miro Heiskanen 8.4 198. Shea Theodore 8.4 204. Justin Faulk 7.8 257. Joshua Morrissey 7.8
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Looks similar to what I have at this point. Good to have some support that you would approach it in about the same way.
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(No I don't have a hockey problem...)
Applying it to keeper rankings would be tricky. The "points" portion would be easy - you can use Dobber's value from the top 300 list. The "salary" portion could be the player's actual/projected AAV for the next X years with more weight given to this year and progressively less weight in each following year. I think you've made some good progress in this area though.
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love it.
31 team permanent keeper. 12F, 6D, +1 Skater, 2G, 5 Reserve, 8 Prospects (744 skaters, 62 goalies, 248 prospects)
Goalie - 20 W, 2.5 save, -15 GA, 15 SO
Skater - 25 point, 2 PIM, 1 Hit, 2 Block, +/- 10, TOI 0.2/min, Special team points +5, Fight 5
Strict NHL salary cap & floor
Question for you guys.
What are the thoughts about keeper and one-year rankings. Do you want both? If so, in a single rankings post, would you want them sorted by one-year with the keeper rankings also in a chart, or the other way around?
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(No I don't have a hockey problem...)