I feel so validated. Haha. I have three of the top four in EP, Goose, and Debrincat.
10 TEAM FANTRAX LEAGUE (Salary Cap)
23 Man Roster (Keep 16) + 12 Minors
G, A, PIM, SOG, STP, HIT, BLK, TK, FOW
W, SV%, GAA, SO
C: Tavares, Pettersson, Bergeron, Dubois, Trocheck, Gaudette
RW: J. Anderson, Coleman, Garland, Puljujarvi, Hoglander
LW: Tkachuck, Miller, Goodrow, Mangiapane
D: McAvoy, DeAngelo, Krug, Borowiecki, Gustafsson, Lindgren
G: Shesterkin, Samsonov
Minors: Kahkonen, Sandin, Jarvis, Rasmussen, Elvenes, Abramov, Morin, Brisson, Clague, Gilbert, Hoglander, Timmins
IR: Kucherov
Associate Editor for DobberHockey (Wednesdays). Click that Ramblings button on the the menu bar!
(No I don't have a hockey problem...)
Hey guys, checking in here. I've made some progress I'm very happy with for the rankings and salary projection on the skater side. I do have a bad habit though of not wanting to finish the last 5% of projects, so I will keep tweaking with it while I move onto another one. I'm looking at putting together a similar setup for goaltenders.
Would love to hear what stats people want focused on, and any other comments/suggestions that there may be. I'll be looking to complete a rankings and salary projection set, hopefully done before free-agency opens.
Associate Editor for DobberHockey (Wednesdays). Click that Ramblings button on the the menu bar!
(No I don't have a hockey problem...)
I generally agree. I'm trying to sort out what the best way forward would be, as the skater list is points only, and for goalies that would mean just wins (I'm not going to include shutouts) with maybe a little extra lean towards the guys with higher GP numbers.
However, unlike skaters going from points only to multicat, the goalie list would change to a much greater degree by including the ratio stats.
Associate Editor for DobberHockey (Wednesdays). Click that Ramblings button on the the menu bar!
(No I don't have a hockey problem...)
Associate Editor for DobberHockey (Wednesdays). Click that Ramblings button on the the menu bar!
(No I don't have a hockey problem...)
Contact me for Frozen Tools bug reports and inquiries
Follow Frozen Tools on Twitter @FrozenTools
Follow me on Twitter @DH_EricDaoust
This is the first I have saw of this thread, no idea what happened there. It was an interesting and informative read. I play in a couple salary leagues so this should be helpful information.
A few questions for you:
How often do you tweak your formulas?
Should the rankings tell you which player to draft first/next in a league with the listed settings?
Does Connor McDavid being ranked 24th tell you your formulas are flawed? He should be the first pick in any fantasy hockey league with non-garbage league settings.
I think your formulas are over-valuing salary and under-valuing points especially expected future points. Connor McDavid has been top 2 in the NHL in points in each of the past 4 seasons. It is pretty safe to say that barring injury, that is likely to continue for the next 10 years. That is worth every penny of his contract. Cap leagues are not won by teams who spend the least amount of money, they are won by teams that earn the most points.
The other stat that would have me thinking of changing the formula is that 7 of the top 13 players are dmen. That is too high of a number. I understand position scarcity but in a 14 team league with these settings the best waiver wire forward will be about a 35-40 point guy while the best waiver wire dman will be about a 25 point guy. The best dman is about a 70-75 point guy while the best forwards are 100+ points. This should make forwards more valuable than dmen.
I actually think doing goalie rankings will be easier than skaters. The reasons are that there are way less of them and there are also very few useful goalies on entry level contracts so the salary ranges among useful goalies should be much tighter.
I do appreciate these rankings and will start looking at them more often but I just thought I would share my thoughts.
Some fair points Chuck. I don't think this is a list that can be used without context though, and that shows from the things you pointed out like McDavid being ranked in the 20s and the Dman skew at the top. However, both of those points are why I think it is imperative to use the list, because it shows that there is a lot more value to be found in the rookie contracts, especially on defence, than what we are currently giving them credit for. Starting a new dynasty league, McDavid makes a great #1 pick, because of course you're not taking Adam Fox or Nick Suzuki ahead of him. I would be targeting them earlier than others would though, as having them will give the rest of my team more adaptability and value than McDavid on his own - but, I can get then later in a draft than McDavid, and that's what the list can't take into account.
I don't have a set time(s) when I make updates. I'm still constantly tweaking things, but it is generally about where the final product will be. No more massive overhauls planned after the next ranking list comes out because I finally fixed the salary prediction model flaws I had been dealing with. `
If you look at how the rest of the list plays out, for 10, 12, and 14 team league sizes, the number of defencemen and the total salary used are very close to where they should be capped to optimize for those league sizes. I already created a bit of an extra formula to bring up the middle-of-the-pack Dmen and drop the value of the top Dmen a little, so this is already the stunted version of their relative value. I tried my best to take out my biases when creating it, and just let the math talk, and I think that's what the initial versions had. However I agree with you to some extent that a little extra micro-managing is necessary to fit reality.
I will just point out this one thought that I disagree with. The difference between the top F and a FA F may be bigger than on D, however the decline in D talent is much faster than on forward, so getting at least one of the top guys is imperative.
Would be curious to hear your thoughts on all that.
And yes, creating the initial goalie list will probably be easier because the amount of time to input the player pool and create all of the settings will take less time!
Associate Editor for DobberHockey (Wednesdays). Click that Ramblings button on the the menu bar!
(No I don't have a hockey problem...)
How often will this be updated?
10 Team, Points Only, Cash League
25 Man Roster (no position), top 20 point getters count at end of month
Keep 20/25 at seasons end, Cut 5 to FA for redrafting
Goalie points W=2pt L=-1pt SHO=2pt
Stamkos, Tavares, Eichel, Mercer, JRobertson, RThomas, Kucherov, Nugent-Hopkins, Tuch, KConnor, Necas, Point, Konecny, SJarvis, Cozenz, Morrissey, Bouchard, Josi, Novak, Tolvanen, Peterka, SBennett
G- Vasilevskiy, Sorokin, Oettinger
"Cleavage is like the sun. You can look, but dont stare.. Unless you're wearing sunglasses."
Associate Editor for DobberHockey (Wednesdays). Click that Ramblings button on the the menu bar!
(No I don't have a hockey problem...)
Contact me for Frozen Tools bug reports and inquiries
Follow Frozen Tools on Twitter @FrozenTools
Follow me on Twitter @DH_EricDaoust
50/50?
Basically I put in a lot of prior seasons, and thetthe contracts theytthey signed and try to mould an algorithm around that. So it's judgement to fit the numbers haha. And then from there it's another dash of judgement based on how things are changing and looking moving forward.
Associate Editor for DobberHockey (Wednesdays). Click that Ramblings button on the the menu bar!
(No I don't have a hockey problem...)