[Rumor] Marner is gone from TO

[DusterDave]

Bob McKenzine sent out a couple of tweets and worded them as facts, not speculation....

TOR has made seven and eight year offers in the $11M AAV universe but because it’s a lower AAV and longer term than Auston Matthews, it hasn’t been palatable to Marner.

The logical solution would be a three-year bridge but because Marner wants an AAV in the $9M to $10M universe and the third year (base for QO) would be substantially higher, TOR has no incentive to do the bridge at those numbers. Hard to see the way to a settlement.


What I take from this is that there is no give and take from Marner, he just wants to take take take and isn’t being reasonable. If Bob’s tweets are true, and again they seem to be from his wording than it should be the end of this circus. Make him sit or trade him. Trading probably isn’t an option though if he won’t sign these types of deals in Toronto, he isn’t going to sign elsewhere.

[ACC90]

Bob McKenzine sent out a couple of tweets and worded them as facts, not speculation....

TOR has made seven and eight year offers in the $11M AAV universe but because it’s a lower AAV and longer term than Auston Matthews, it hasn’t been palatable to Marner.

The logical solution would be a three-year bridge but because Marner wants an AAV in the $9M to $10M universe and the third year (base for QO) would be substantially higher, TOR has no incentive to do the bridge at those numbers. Hard to see the way to a settlement.


What I take from this is that there is no give and take from Marner, he just wants to take take take and isn’t being reasonable. If Bob’s tweets are true, and again they seem to be from his wording than it should be the end of this circus. Make him sit or trade him. Trading probably isn’t an option though if he won’t sign these types of deals in Toronto, he isn’t going to sign elsewhere.

It's hard here for fans to take Marner side if he refused this kind of deal.
I know that the player need to think about himself and everyone would do the same thing in our job, but the difference here is the salary cap.
Tavares (11m), Matthews (11.6m) and Marner (11m) would take 41% of the salary cap. If we add Nylander (6.9m) it's close to 50%... all the others players would need to earn less for those stars.

[2014olympicgold]

Dubas -"here, you get the largest contract out of an ELC ever, bonus money you felt you deserved in your ELC, and no hard feelings"
Marner - "How large of a contract are we talking about?"
Dubas - "77mill. 7yrs"
Marner - "77 divided by 7....ok 11mill...let me just look something up here (types in Matthews Capfriendly into Google). I reject this deal"
Dubas - "why? can we tweak the salaries for you?"
Marner - "It needs to be...At least $81,438,001"
Dubas - "That's sepecific...just a sec. 81,438,001 divided by 7....Mitch we aren't paying you more than Matthews!"
Marner - "Aight Imma head out"

[rataylor22]

It's hard here for fans to take Marner side if he refused this kind of deal.
I know that the player need to think about himself and everyone would do the same thing in our job, but the difference here is the salary cap.
Tavares (11m), Matthews (11.6m) and Marner (11m) would take 41$ of the salary cap. If we add Nylander (6.9m) it's close to 50%... all the others players would need to earn less for those stars.

It's not Marner's job to fix Dubas' cap mismangement.

[chuckcouples]

Dubas -"here, you get the largest contract out of an ELC ever, bonus money you felt you deserved in your ELC, and no hard feelings"

Pretty sure McDavid's $100,000,000 contract was bigger.

There's also a big difference between $11M per year for 7 years then there is for 11.6M for 5 years. Matthews will probably be signing for $15M+ per season in 5 years time (in Arizona!!!) which is a big difference over the $11M that Marner may have been offered.

[2014olympicgold]

Pretty sure McDavid's $100,000,000 contract was bigger.

There's also a big difference between $11M per year for 7 years then there is for 11.6M for 5 years. Matthews will probably be signing for $15M+ per season in 5 years time (in Arizona!!!) which is a big difference over the $11M that Marner may have been offered.

I think it's the largest deal that's like...made after the ELC expired I guess. I heard on the radio the largest, but forgot McDavid. So prolly 77mill is the largest offer when done their ELC

[chuckcouples]

But if they all want these massive contracts then as a group they had better stop complaining about escrow.

The players agreed to a 50/50 revenue split and there are plenty of arguments that certain things should be added or deducted from either side of the equation. As it is NOW though, both sides agreed to the parameters and every time any player takes a bigger chunk than the market allows the group as a collective continues to exceed that 50/50 split and raises escrow even further. Some of this can rightfully be pinned on bonehead GMs offering more than expected to completely average players while star players are taking discounts so their team can add depth.

Anyway, the players who push each other to squeeze out every last dime they should really shut up about escrow.

You don't quite understand how the 50/50 split of revenue works, do you? It makes no difference how much total salaries the players are supposed to be paid. At the end of the year, the NHL players salaries paid out will equal 50% of the NHL's hockey related revenue. This is the reason for the escrow of the players' salary. The NHL has never had a season when its hockey related revenue has exceeded their projections which is what they use to determine the salary cap. If they hockey related revenue were to exceed the projections, then the owners would actually have to pay the players more than their actual salaries.

[rataylor22]

The other factor is revenues/2/31 =/= the cap, it is the midpoint of the cap. So when 25 teams are spending over the midpoint, you already have a >50/50 split. Then when you factor in real cash vs. cap hit with signing bonuses and such, you're way above 50/50

[hockeymanG23]

You don't quite understand how the 50/50 split of revenue works, do you? It makes no difference how much total salaries the players are supposed to be paid. At the end of the year, the NHL players salaries paid out will equal 50% of the NHL's hockey related revenue. This is the reason for the escrow of the players' salary. The NHL has never had a season when its hockey related revenue has exceeded their projections which is what they use to determine the salary cap. If they hockey related revenue were to exceed the projections, then the owners would actually have to pay the players more than their actual salaries.

I’ve read through enough to have a decent idea of how revenue sharing and escrow work. I’m not too concerned about laying out every nuance I understand and I’m willing to admit that there’s bound to be a fair amount I don’t understand about it as well since all together it is too complicated for even the most well informed fan to comprehend fully.

Anyway, I am curious to see if anyone can provide a model that shows Marner having an on ice all around impact that would be worth making him the 2nd or 3rd highest paid player in the league. I haven’t seen one yet or heard an argument that wasn’t based strictly off of either his raw totals this past year where he was stapled to an elite C compared to Matthews, for example, who played with 3rd line quality wingers the majority of the time, or some kind of “stick it to the man” type argument.

I am truly curious to see if the metrics exist that show him to be worth that much more than players in the $10mill/season range.

[hockeymanG23]

The other factor is revenues/2/31 =/= the cap, it is the midpoint of the cap. So when 25 teams are spending over the midpoint, you already have a >50/50 split. Then when you factor in real cash vs. cap hit with signing bonuses and such, you're way above 50/50

Yes, there is much more going on with the split and actual money/signing bonuses etc is involved. I was just making some generalizations since it hasn’t been a major factor in this thread so far overinflated contracts though are one of the big issues players are bring up about the current CBA so considering the big contract demands it seemed to be worth a mention.

[Auston'sWilly]

I like Marner - he's a good kid.
I think this clown show is mostly his agent's doing. And fair enough - the agent's job is to maximize the player's earnings, after all.

But if I'm Dubas, I dig my heals in and simply say the same two things over and over and over.
And if Marner's agent refuses to absorb this message, you have to make Marner sit.
You just do. Yes, for the whole season, if necessary.
The fans will understand, because of these very basic & indisputable 2 factors .

1) Mitch, you're a winger. John and Auston are centres. That's a huge, huge difference.
Come back to the table when you are ready to accept that you will NOT earn what they are earning. They play a different and more important position, and their contracts were signed when our cap situation looked drastically different.

2) Mitch, surely you would agree that it's harder to score than it is to pass it to someone else to score. Right?
Well... goals per game, last 2 seasons... Tavares .5122, Matthews .5462, Marner .2927
Again, a huge difference.

Sure, that's oversimplifying a complex situation.
I'm just saying most fans, myself among them, will understand if they force Marner to sit. It's the right thing to do if they refuse to smarten up and face reality.

By the way, just as a quick sidenote, this narrative that Marner drives that line, and JT was on his coattails, is horsepoop. JT was an elite centre producing very well with the Isles long before he ever had Marner as a linemate.

[rataylor22]

“Centres are more valuable than wingers” is a cute argument, but contractually you cant really point to anything that shows it exists.

[rataylor22]

Also, most fans are tribalists and will invariably choose team over player every time.

And JT was definitely a good producer prior to Marner, but it’s probably not a coincidence he topped his previous point total and blew his goal total out of the water his first season with Marner.

[rataylor22]

Yes, there is much more going on with the split and actual money/signing bonuses etc is involved. I was just making some generalizations since it hasn’t been a major factor in this thread so far overinflated contracts though are one of the big issues players are bring up about the current CBA so considering the big contract demands it seemed to be worth a mention.

“Overinflated contracts” invariable implies that star players are overpaid, which is pretty much universally false. Matthews is overpaid because of what McDavid makes, but McDavid is underpaid, so Matthews is probably also underpaid

[Dr.Brad]

Crosby taking 8.7 looks far, far better every year. “Team” matters. Crosby-haters, go ahead, have your say.