[Rumor] Marner is gone from TO

[havanablast21]

Not sure why you keep playing the team angle when going back and forth with people. Axeman doesn't work for the Oilers and had nothing to do with their decisions. Just like you've had nothing to do with anything the Leafs have done.

Never suggested he did.

[Rylant]

Marner isn’t worth what he’s asking. Common sense for anyone who watches the game.

The idea of “worth”, is a widely misunderstood term. “Worth” is not determined by what fans think he should get; it’s determined by how much somebody is willing to pay him. I may think that he doesn’t deserve 11.5 million a season, but if teams are willing to pay him that much, guess what? That is what he is “worth”.

Rylant

[Rylant]

I also don’t mind the idea of a player trying to get more. It seems like “sour grapes” when complaining that a young player is spoiled or greedy, if they don’t sign immediately with the team you obviously are a bit of a homer for. These same teams will gouge the player for whatever they can and will take advantage wherever possible; I am ok with the player trying to get more. The player in an RFA situation very intentionally has little to his advantage in the first place. Holding out sucks for the fans, but I totally get why it happens.

Rylant

[saucelife90]

Matthews isn't worth what he's making. Neither is Tavares. Dubas created this situation based on the contracts he's already handed out. When considering the other contracts on the team, Marner absolutely worth what he is asking based on team comparables. If people think team comparables don't matter, well, shrug. Internal contract caps have existed for 20+ years based on the pay of their best players.

This 100%.

You can add Nylander to the list too.

[hockeymanG23]

I'll preface this post by stating that I'm not a "fan" of either Marner or the Leafs, but I have certainly appreciated the skill and entertainment both have been providing the past few years. I'm also neither pro-player or pro-team necessarily and believe that either side can be worthy of commendation when things go well or chastisement when things are getting bad/ridiculous in negotiations etc.

All in all I feel fairly neutral about all this, but because its such a big story I figured I'd dig up a few things I've read or seen over the summer from guys who also seem to reflect a fairly neutral stance and see what the opinions are to it.

1. This video is from a month ago, just wondering who has seen it?

Sportsnet writer Andrew Berkshire is getting interviewed in a clip titled "Why Marner isn’t quite at same level as Matthews or Tavares" and the address title is named mitch-marner-overrated-player-nhl/. He's using a stat called Score-Chance Generating Plays from Sportlogiq.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/...ed-player-nhl/

2. This article from Dom Luszczyszyn at The Athletic is from mid-June and goes over what value most of the key RFAs bring to their teams and the $$$ that they are worth relative to the market. He also references projections from Evolving Hockey for these RFAs. (Spoiler, Dom has Marner worth $9.6mill on a long term contract. A few other prognosticators were linked as well who had him capping out between $9-10mill x 8 years)

https://theathletic.com/1030697/2019.../?redirected=1

3. A few days prior Dom released an article specifically on Marner titled "Why Mitch Marner deserves Auston Matthews money". In it he mentions in passing that both Point and Aho should be raking in that kind of dough also.

One quote from this article read as such regarding the premise...

That’s not because Marner is as good as Matthews, it’s because Matthews is also worth more than his contract.

So Marner should make @$11.5mill because these guys are getting overpayed relative to the market but Matthews is getting underpaid? Hmmm.

https://theathletic.com/1030402/2019/06/17/why-mitch-marner-deserves-auston-matthews-money/

[chuckcouples]

The guy who really determines who has the most value on a team is the head coach and last year Mike Babcock decided that Mitch Marner was the most important Leafs forward in both the regular season and the playoffs. Marner played almost a full minute more than Matthews (and Tavares) in both seasons.

Also, Dom's salary predictions are based on the numbers from the entire league. Marner's camp is not going to be comparing himself to anyone else in the league where he has two guys on his team that are direct comparables.

At the end of the day, most of the player's in the league are going to be on Marner's side in this battle as they want player's to earn as much money as possible. They probably also want the best players on a team to earn the most money as that is the natural order of things. I can see this battle getting even uglier over the next few months. Toronto's best best would be to trade Marner to a team that is not paying a worse and less important forward $11.6M per season. If Marner was on the Oilers (because I like what Axeman has done with that team!!!), it would be difficult for Marner to figure he's worth more than Leon Draisaitl who is getting paid $8.5M per season.

The fault in all of this rests mostly on the head of Kyle Dubas who has done a terrible job negotiating contracts in his short time as GM of the Leafs.

[Axeman33]

Says the Oiler fan.

Just say’n.

Not really in a good place to be preaching best practices for team management.

Take that back... you are. VERY much in the know about poor team management. As you were Axeman. Apologies.

Yep. Says the Oilers fan.

And FWIW, probably the only thing Chiarelli did right was signing both McDavid AND Draisaitl to the current deals they are on. Both are fantastic compared to some of the other deals being handed out.

[2014olympicgold]

I thought I read yesterday Leafs will only give 11mill if it's a 7yr deal. And that's the highest they'll go.

[ericdaoust]

Haven't we "heard" just about every scenario by now?

[havanablast21]

I thought I read yesterday Leafs will only give 11mill if it's a 7yr deal. And that's the highest they'll go.

But I heard Marner wants a Kajillion Dollars. So sounds like they’re still a ways apart.

[2014olympicgold]

Haven't we "heard" just about every scenario by now?

Until Dreger mentions Marner's dad will be the one suiting up for the Leafs.

[ericdaoust]

Until Dreger mentions Marner's dad will be the one suiting up for the Leafs.

Nothing wrong with adding a vet to a team looking for playoff success...

[havanablast21]

Until Dreger mentions Marner's dad will be the one suiting up for the Leafs.

Suiting up as the New GM?

[2014olympicgold]

From Freidman's thoughts:

It is impossible to write or talk about Marner without offending someone, so here is my attempt at a bias-free take: It’s tense and personal. My belief is Toronto is willing to go to an $11-million AAV, but only if he signs for seven years. I’d heard both sides might agree to two years — then let arbitration sort it out — but a few sources threw cold water on that. I mentioned during a radio hit last week the rumour that Marner’s representatives pitched a three-year contract with a structure similar to the Meier/Werenski setup, with the third season as high as $15 million. However, I’m told that was several months ago and is no longer relevant, although both sides have continued to explore that kind of an option. I don’t sense things are anywhere close.

[hockeymanG23]

The guy who really determines who has the most value on a team is the head coach and last year Mike Babcock decided that Mitch Marner was the most important Leafs forward in both the regular season and the playoffs. Marner played almost a full minute more than Matthews (and Tavares) in both seasons.

Also, Dom's salary predictions are based on the numbers from the entire league. Marner's camp is not going to be comparing himself to anyone else in the league where he has two guys on his team that are direct comparables.

At the end of the day, most of the player's in the league are going to be on Marner's side in this battle as they want player's to earn as much money as possible. They probably also want the best players on a team to earn the most money as that is the natural order of things. I can see this battle getting even uglier over the next few months. Toronto's best best would be to trade Marner to a team that is not paying a worse and less important forward $11.6M per season. If Marner was on the Oilers (because I like what Axeman has done with that team!!!), it would be difficult for Marner to figure he's worth more than Leon Draisaitl who is getting paid $8.5M per season.

The fault in all of this rests mostly on the head of Kyle Dubas who has done a terrible job negotiating contracts in his short time as GM of the Leafs.

About Doms numbers

The latter will be handled by my model (which now incorporates expected goals and has undergone some changes to give more credit for defence), based on how much a player’s projected value is worth relative to those very same contract projections.

At the beginning of the article and in point 3 he acknowledges that the players will likely get much more.

The bold part is where I have a bit of a problem with the players as a whole. Should they be paid as the best when they are among the best? Sure, anyone at the top of their field should be. But if they all want these massive contracts then as a group they had better stop complaining about escrow.

The players agreed to a 50/50 revenue split and there are plenty of arguments that certain things should be added or deducted from either side of the equation. As it is NOW though, both sides agreed to the parameters and every time any player takes a bigger chunk than the market allows the group as a collective continues to exceed that 50/50 split and raises escrow even further. Some of this can rightfully be pinned on bonehead GMs offering more than expected to completely average players while star players are taking discounts so their team can add depth.

Anyway, the players who push each other to squeeze out every last dime they should really shut up about escrow.

My thoughts on Babcock though. Most overrated coach in the decades I've been watching the NHL. Wins once with an All Star team in Detroit and is handed the golden ticket to the Olympic teams. Any one of Quenville, Trotz, Boudreau, Maurice, etc could've won will those teams yet Babcock got treated like something special. His introductory press conference in TO where he constantly referred to himself in the 3rd person was gag worthy.

If player usage is any indication in big moments then I suppose his 3rd line deserves to make more $$$ than Matthews too considering that he was leaning on them in the dying moments of his last elimination game, right? Hyperbole obviously but I hope it just makes the point of player usage not always being the be-all end-all of the best ways to evaluate a player. I've seen many exceptional players over the years be underused by their coaches while grinders and scrubs get the Golden Boy treatment.