NHL Draft Lottery

[Doug Glatt]

I sit with the #1 pick in one of my pools. I have to admit, I'm underwhelmed with NJ at #1. Maybe it's past bias... but I might be swayed to who the Rangers take at #2 - likely meaning - taking Kakko over Hughes.

In this specific pool. periphs are converted to .25 fpt. g/a are 2.5pts each. Kakko figures to fill those cats better than the slim/trim Hughes. From this league specific viewpoint, Kakko is neck and neck with Hughes... Add in that he plays wing and well.... It becomes really close

Kakko with Zibanejad and Kreider. Thats going to be a very good No.1 line.

[Eskimo Brother]

^Fair enough to say... but drafting is chess/war/mind-games.
If the vote is close... and your party wants Hughes... what would one publicly "leak" to help those chances...

I'm seeing 9/10 prospect pundits go with Hughes.
And the one that isn't, Draft Buzz, had Zadina over Svechnikov last year... so....


Also - re: Hischier vs. Patrick.
Nationalities are not important.
The junior league is a bit important... and Hischier being in the Q really gave GMs better confidence level on his skill vs. Patrick in the W.

The gap btw Hughes & Kakko isn't as big as Matthews & Laine... but that's a better comparable for discussion of "situation" since it's USNDP vs. Liiga.

Agree with the Matthews/Laine comparison being closer in terms of a lot of the situational points. I only pulled out Hischier and Patrick because that was again NJ picking first.

Yes, that is a good point that you may want to leak something to get an edge, but in terms of swaying another team, if I'm the GM of the other team, I'm not taking anything at face value coming out of the other teams, so I don't see it being a large part of the puzzle (though it is fun to think about all the deception/manipulation that could be going on.

On another note, you mention chess a lot. Do you actually play? (Does anyone on the forums play regularly?)

[Pengwin7]

On another note, you mention chess a lot. Do you actually play? (Does anyone on the forums play regularly?)

Ha! Not really.

And to be really harsh... I grew up in small-town Canada with a bunch of really nice (but limited IQ) farmboys.
My 5th grade teacher hosted a tournament and (on limited practice/knowledge) I pretty much destroyed the rest of the school.

I actually had NOBODY to play chess against, competitively, in grade school.
By high school... it was all about girls & video games... so chess board got tossed.

Though we did have a chess team in late high school... and even with many years off, I played 3rd chair in a HS population of 1600+.

I watch speed-chess highlights every year after the big tourney though. So I know of the current dominating guy (Carlsen) and the rising American (Caruana).
I effin love discussion on YouTube about the great matches in history... #BigDorkThatWay

[rtstr]

The main argument for NJ jumping onto the Kakko bandwagon would be that last time they had a first overall pick, they had a choice between the NA C who had been hyped as the number one for the two years leading up to the draft, and the European native who was a mighty riser in their draft year. They went for the latter, and it has worked out fairly well. Now, apples to oranges, Hughes and Kakko aren't Hischier and Patrick, but the logic is fairly similar.

I would put it as more of a 70%/30% likelihood that Hughes is first vs Kakko.

As another tidbit, make of it what you will that Brian Burke said on the pre-show for the draft lottery that three of the lottery teams he had spoken to, had Kakko over Hughes. Say he had spoken to 10 of the 15 teams there, and I'm pretty comfortable with my 70/30 bar.

I think it's extremely unlikely that the Devils pass on Hughes. And I think it's even more unlikely that teams are truly sharing draft rankings or plans with Brian Burke. He's had casual discussions I'm sure, but I don't believe any team actually told him who they'd pick at 1. Seems like all Burke cares about is pumping out soundbites to try and sound like the most respected and intelligent man in the hockey world. He was never a crowd pleaser but has gotten rather annoying as time goes on if you ask me.

[Daydream Nation]

I sit with the #1 pick in one of my pools. I have to admit, I'm underwhelmed with NJ at #1. Maybe it's past bias... but I might be swayed to who the Rangers take at #2 - likely meaning - taking Kakko over Hughes.

In this specific pool. periphs are converted to .25 fpt. g/a are 2.5pts each. Kakko figures to fill those cats better than the slim/trim Hughes. From this league specific viewpoint, Kakko is neck and neck with Hughes... Add in that he plays wing and well.... It becomes really close

I'm in the same boat. I jumped from 3rd to 1st and with Chicago getting the 3rd pick, it was a pretty enjoyable evening for me. I hope there is a clear cut #1 after the U18s.

[finnys_fanatsy]

ok guys..i had this question last night but havent had time to ask it

how was it was known that the Blackhawks would jump from 12th to 3rd so soon in the draft? was there no possible way for them to pick 10th, or 9th or 6th even at that point? maybe i don't understand statistics that well?

[lucafen4]

ok guys..i had this question last night but havent had time to ask it

how was it was known that the Blackhawks would jump from 12th to 3rd so soon in the draft? was there no possible way for them to pick 10th, or 9th or 6th even at that point? maybe i don't understand statistics that well?

Correct...They could only move up to 1-3 spots. Otherwise, they could get bumped down. Once they announced who was drafting 12th. Everyone knew Chicago was in the top 3... just not where or who got bumped out.

Here's a graph of all possible spots every team could have ended up: http://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

[PenguinHunter]

ok guys..i had this question last night but havent had time to ask it

how was it was known that the Blackhawks would jump from 12th to 3rd so soon in the draft? was there no possible way for them to pick 10th, or 9th or 6th even at that point? maybe i don't understand statistics that well?

The lottery is only to determine the top 3 spots for the draft. So there is a lottery for First, Second and Third overall. Outside of the top three picks, everything else is determined based on order.

The way that the NHL announces it, they start at the 15th overall pick. So we know that it should be the 15th worst team. Which last night it was. And this continues through the 14th, 13th and so one.

So when it got to the time that Chicago should have been, 12th overall, we saw a different team. Therefore, we now know that the Hawks have won one of the three lotteries for the top three picks. And then the team that was one spot worst than them in the standings moves down a spot. The reason they that they move down a spot is because one of the teams that was higher in the standings has won the lottery (Chicago).

[finnys_fanatsy]

Correct...They could only move up to 1-3 spots. Otherwise, they could get bumped down. Once they announced who was drafting 12th. Everyone knew Chicago was in the top 3... just not where or who got bumped out.

Here's a graph of all possible spots every team could have ended up: http://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

this part..thats what i though was going to happen, but they moved up 9 spots!

[Dennis]

ok guys..i had this question last night but havent had time to ask it

how was it was known that the Blackhawks would jump from 12th to 3rd so soon in the draft? was there no possible way for them to pick 10th, or 9th or 6th even at that point? maybe i don't understand statistics that well?

Actually someone goofed somewhere and the Top 3 teams were leaked early on an international broadcast and that information spread quickly on twitter.

https://hockeytroll.ca/2019/04/09/th...-to-get-fired/

What Luca and PH said is true but it was known Jersey, NYR, and Chicago were the teams early on.

[Eskimo Brother]

this part..thats what i though was going to happen, but they moved up 9 spots!

You can only move up TO the 1-3 spots. So the ping pong balls come out, and the team of the 15 that has their numbers picked, moves up to number one. They pull a new sequence of numbers for the team that moves to number 2, and then they pull a third sequence for the team that moves to third. The rest are then stacked reverse of final standings.

So MTL, who finished 15, if they had had their numbers picked, could have moved up 14 spots to number 1. The lottery changed a few years ago with a maximum jump of four spots, to an unlimited jump.

[finnys_fanatsy]

The lottery is only to determine the top 3 spots for the draft. So there is a lottery for First, Second and Third overall. Outside of the top three picks, everything else is determined based on order.

The way that the NHL announces it, they start at the 15th overall pick. So we know that it should be the 15th worst team. Which last night it was. And this continues through the 14th, 13th and so one.

So when it got to the time that Chicago should have been, 12th overall, we saw a different team. Therefore, we now know that the Hawks have won one of the three lotteries for the top three picks. And then the team that was one spot worst than them in the standings moves down a spot. The reason they that they move down a spot is because one of the teams that was higher in the standings has won the lottery (Chicago).

ok this ..this makes sense to me. i was under the impression that the lottery was for ALL of the 15 spots, not just 1,2 and 3.

also apparently misread lucafens post...cleared up by EB. thanks guys...

[lucafen4]

I'm in the same boat. I jumped from 3rd to 1st and with Chicago getting the 3rd pick, it was a pretty enjoyable evening for me. I hope there is a clear cut #1 after the U18s.

Even if there is... do I want whatever Jersey takes?

[finnys_fanatsy]

Even if there is... do I want whatever Jersey takes?

EDIT..i changed my mind! i dunno who you take, but either or would be a good one IMO. Kakko potentially with Zib is juicy, but Hughes potentially with Hall is good too!

[Nehithaw]

The triple H line.

Hall - Hughes - Hischier

It's going to be hard on the announcer, haha.