Draft Strategy - 12 Team H2H, Keep-3, Early Picks

[New Scotland]

Hi guys,

I'm in a 12-team H2H Keep-3 league. The categories are G, A, +/-, PPP, GWG, SOG, FOW and W, SV%, GAA, SO.

I've posted the same pre-draft thread the last few seasons - still haven't won a title yet. If I don't win one this year, there's something wrong.

I plan to employ the same strategy as those years which is focusing on drafting goal scorers (G, GWG) who shoot lots and play on the PP with my early picks. SOG and FOW are two categories that are pretty consistent and not random like +/-, so I usually try to draft my forwards based on those two categories. I have tons of early picks, and am done drafting by round six. There's one or two other teams in good position with lots of early picks as well.

Looking for insight on players that can be played on the wing but take face-offs, sleepers with bad ADP in Yahoo, etc.

I'm also interested in who has the best playoff schedule (Weeks 21, 22 and 23) more so than who plays on off-nights, as I am a lock to make playoffs but need to win those three weeks - I always seem to win the regular season and lose in semis or finals


My picks:

1.		Pick #1
2.		Pick #5
3.		Pick #9
4.		Pick #13
5.		Pick #21
6.		Pick #25
7.		Pick #33
8.		Pick #37
9.		Pick #41
10.		Pick #45
11.		Pick #49
12.		Pick #53
13.		Pick #57
14.		Pick #60
15.		Pick #61

My Keepers:

McDavid, Tarasenko and Murray.
For some reason, someone chose not to take Ovi. I will be taking him with my first pick. I would also like to draft Barkov early.

Other teams keepers:

Team 1: Laine, P. Kane, Eichel
Team 2: Kucherov, Matthews, Hellebuyck
Team 3: Seguin, Wheeler, Gibson
Team 4: Marchand, Johansen, Talbot
Team 5: MacKinnon, Giroux, W. Karlsson
Team 6: Gaudreau, Kessel, Trocheck
Team 7: Crosby, Carlson, Rinne
Team 8: Malkin, Benn, Price
Team 9: Hall, Stamkos, Hedman
Team 10: Burns, Scheifele, Andersen
Team 11: Tavares, Pastrnak, Vasilevskiy

I'm not sure how to tag people, but Pengwin7 has been a huge help the last few years with giving me input on a few players per pick that I should target.

Advice from anyone and everyone is greatly appreciated!

[New Scotland]

Oh - these are the positions, along with a screenshot of who Yahoo! says are the top available players.

2 C
2 RW
2 LW
4 D
1 UTIL
5 Bench
1 IR
1 IR+

Screenshot (2).png

[LawMan]

Early on you want elite players. Ovy is the disgustingly obvious first pick, whoever did not keep him should be kicking themself. If Karlsson is somehow available at pick #5 he's an instant grab, otherwise I'd go one of Kopitar or Byfuglien.

One of Picks 5/9/13 should be a goalie that plays a lot. Bobrovsky would be my preference with Holtby being second. Later on keep focusing on PPP shooters and dual-eligible wingers who can put up good face off numbers.

[mounD]

If you could get Erik Karlsson with the 5th pick, I think that would be pretty incredible. I'm assuming standard roster 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 6D, 2G? If that's the case, I think Karlsson and Barkov would be very sensible targets with your 5th and 9th selections. Kopitar is another guy I would target highly in your format, as I'm pretty confident that he is good for 80+ points with Kovalchuk on his wing and the shackles of a Sutter system are gone. He should have a stable +/- in addition to the offensive categories, and he wins tons of faceoffs. I know Barzal isn't exactly projected to be a big goal scorer, but he should also be targeted at some point in your first few picks. Not a lot of guys who have legit 90+ upside at this point in the re-draft. If he can improve his SOG and FOW to respectible levels (think like 210 SOG and 575 FOW), he becomes a very well-rounded option - basically a younger, faster, not-even-in-his-prime-yet Nicklas Backstrom. I might even take this guy earlier just because I believe in the 90+ seasons and overall stat contribution improvements as he gets into his prime and sees an increase in TOI.

I realize I'm recommending a lot of centers ... If you end up able to select some of the above guys, you will probably want to focus on winger options with your picks in the 20s. Guys like Marchessault and Forsberg could be sneaky good options with top10 LW upside. I'm not even really sure if these guys will be available to you at this point, but it's the kind of player I would be targeting if my Centers were already loaded with studs. Beyond here I can't really say because it's going to depend on the flow of the draft to determine what players you should be targeting on your list.

As far as faceoff guys from the wing, I would be drafting Pavelski quite high in a league like yours with RW eligibility. He's going to be assuming his usual position deflecting pucks on the Sharks PP1 with Karlsson, Burns, Couture, and Thornton. That's kinda good. I think he is going to pop 30+ goals and 70+ points this year. Another guy I mentioned above, Jonathan Marchessault, is also a decent option for faceoffs at the wing (C,LW). If Leon Draisaitl still has RW eligibility in your league, he would be another name to target during the early picks of your draft. Tomas Hertl could be another guy like that (C,LW,RW eligible on Yahoo) later in your draft. If Sebastion Aho sticks at center, he could pay off a lot more value in your setup (C,LW). Ditto for Alex Galchenyuk (C,LW) if he can get healthy and see time with Keller.

Sleeper targets on the wing would be guys like Cam Atkinson and Brendan Gallagher who should pile up the SOG, and could provide nice return on investment in the mid-to-late rounds. I also really love Timo Meier in goal-heavy leagues. He could pop 250+ SOG playing the wing with Couture-Hertl and getting decent PP2 deployment. 30 goals and 50 points wouldn't be crazy. Keep this dude in mind for the later rounds. Although +/- may be an issue, I'd also recommend Anders Lee because he's a good bet for 30 goals and he will get heavy PP1 usage. Add JvR to that list even though I'm not as certain he will get the same type of prime PP role.

I'm not so great trying to predict "sleeper" defensemen, but as far as goalies are concerned I really like Raanta. I think he should be a target after most of the top #1 guys are off the board. He should return good value in the ratios and will likely see all the starts he can handle in Arizona. Another guy I like a whole lot, though should only be considered much later in the draft, is Brian Elliott. Michal Neuvirth is already hurt to start the season, Alex Lyon is dealing with an injury, and the Flyers organization no doubt wants Carter Hart to see a whole bunch of starts ... in the AHL. It's Elliott's show right now, and the Flyers should be a pretty damn good team. I like his prospects as a really high-end #3 goalie with big upside if he can stay healthy.

Good luck to you.

[New Scotland]

Thanks so much for the replies!