REP FORTHCOMING! Keeping Simmonds versus Miller, Spurgeon, Brodie, Kadri...

[ross10019]

League in sig. We keep 14 and my guaranteed top 12 keepers are:

C: Tavares Stamkos Getzlaf Marchessault
W: Marchand Ehlers Toffoli Lee
D: Karlsson Burns
G: Dubnyk Schneider

Last two spots I was thinking Miller and Spurgeon. Miller is coming out and should be good for close to 40 pts, with solid PP numbers, and high SOG (downside is he doesn't block shots) - he's only 25. Spurgeon was on a 50+ pt pace last year, solid SOG, BS and plus/minus, only downsides are (a) injury history, and (b) emergence of Dumba to steal PP time. I think they both are better keepers than Simmonds given the makeup of my team - I'd be set at D except for drafting a few non-keeper vets in the middle and late rounds, so I'd focus on getting more winger depth in the draft. I like Simmonds and hate to drop him, as I do believe he has a bounceback year - but last year may prove to be the start of injuries becoming a factor for him (especially given his style of play) and now you have JVR potentially stealing the net front spot on that top PP which would be death for Simmonds' fantasy prospects (especially if coupled with a 3rd line gig at ES).

BTW the other guys I hate to lose are Kadri and Brodie - but I'm loaded at C and can't afford to keep Kadri (who will lose point potential with the addition of Tavares), and Brodie is an underwhelming option at D given his shaky peripherals (eg, SOG) - although latest news is they're going to back to pairing him on Giordano's right side, which should be good for him.
We start each week 3/4 Cs, 5/6 Ws and 5D, as fyi.

Any help appreciated! Will REP EVERYONE!

[Luffy D Monkey]

Are people liking Brodie?

[ross10019]

Are people liking Brodie?

It's definitely tough as Brodie could well put up 40+ or even 50 in the right circumstances, but I just like Miller (younger) and Spurgeon (more well-rounded, peripherals more solid) than him. If I had to trade each of them, I'd wager Miller right now would bring the most return, followed by Spurgeon. But welcome anyone who disagrees!

Important thing is to decide whether any of Miller, Spurgeon, Brodie are better keepers than Simmonds, that's my first dilemma. After that it's choosing which two dmen are best choices.

[Luffy D Monkey]

Tough call, in my league it's way harder to find quality D-men than forwards.

Also, it depends on your trust in Simmonds to stay healthy after a forgettable season.

[Daydream Nation]

I decided to keep Simmonds over Konecny and Stone since I have confidence that he will bounce back and that his down year was due to all his injuries. Plus, it is a contract year so I see him being motivated to play his best. But he is definitely on a short leash with me.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Simmonds and Miller for me. Dumba's emergence will hurt Spurgeon a lot, I think. Brodie wouldn't be above your other two Ds IMO.

[ross10019]

Simmonds and Miller for me. Dumba's emergence will hurt Spurgeon a lot, I think. Brodie wouldn't be above your other two Ds IMO.

Interesting. So in your mind it would come down to Simmonds versus Spurgeon for that last keeper spot - while I agree Spurgeon might be hurt by Dumba's emergence from a points perspective, Spurgeon will always be valuable in the peripherals as he is a premier shot-blocker who takes lots of shots. Question is, with my squad makeup, is that more valuable to me than what Simmonds will bring as a W (and we don't have hits in our league, so Simmonds key contribution if he reverts to his prior value is PPPs and to a lesser extent Gs As SOGs). It's a tough call but I'm still not convinced that Simmonds will bring more value than Spurgeon taking that into account. Taking into account Dobber's forecasts for these players:

Simmonds 25G 26A 51 pts - plus Simmonds usually is an above average BS and SOG guy for a winger, say 54 BS and 210 SOG. Spot on PP1 is usuallly secured as he's an elite net front PP guy, but they have JVR now who is possibly one of the few guys in the league that are even better in that role!
Spurgeon 10G 27A 37 pts - plus Spurgeon is an elite BS guy and above average SOG and plus/minus. Spot on PP1 definitely not secured, and you're right Dumba is primed to steal most of that away.

Tough choice! Perhaps it comes down to where I feel I have the most depth - at W, I've got excellent top end with Marchand and Ehlers, but then Lee and Toffoli are both a bit questionable. At D I've got excellent top end in Karlsson and Burns (best 1-2 D in the league), and I'd have a decent D3 in Miller. Maybe you're right that Simmonds is the better keeper - risk I'm taking is that last year was not an aberration injury-wise for Simmonds and he settles into a 40ish point player with less relevance on the PP>

[RizzeeDizzee]

Spurgeon is a guy I want to draft, but not one I want to keep.

[Dover]

For me Simmonds>Toffoli

[YzermansLegacy]

Ross I think your analysis is on point here.

Without HIT/PIM and (imo) no PP1, Simmonds is a drop now. And I think you'll be able to redraft some quality W options later than D too.

In your setup, as Luffy alluded to, I can imagine that D are hyper-valuable. So for me, the choice is "which" D man to keep.

While I agree that Spurg used to be a hidden gem (BS/SOG/+-), I too think his value is declining with the emergence of Dumba. In fact, I expect it'll be closer to being on par with what Brodie offers this year.

Miller is the choice imo, despite weak BS totals, as those are the kind of Dmen you CAN actually find later in the draft (Russell, de Haan, etc.) if you really need to address that cat. Plus, with Schmidt out the first 20, perhaps Miller gets some increased ice time and that leads to better BS numbers.

Regardless of that, I'm going Miller here.

[ross10019]

For me Simmonds>Toffoli

Toffoli has had a couple of down years, but no way I'm keeping Simmonds over him. First there's the 4 year age difference. Second, factor in Jeff Carter's injury last year to partially explain Toffoli's performance. I'm definitely worried about where Toffoli goes from here, including what kind of PP time he'll get now that Kovalchuk is in town - but I think he still has potential to be a 30G 60pt guys regularly, and he's always got high SOG volume. Plus Simmonds with his style of play is much more likely to lose effectiveness sooner than later - last year might be the start of us seeing that. But interested if others have your take.

Simmonds at his best, though, is arguably a better keeper than Toffoli - combo of 30ish goals, 55+ pts, heavy PPPs, decent SOG volume - issue is whether he does revert back to the Simmonds of old next year, he very well might.

[ross10019]

Ross I think your analysis is on point here.

Without HIT/PIM and (imo) no PP1, Simmonds is a drop now. And I think you'll be able to redraft some quality W options later than D too.

In your setup, as Luffy alluded to, I can imagine that D are hyper-valuable. So for me, the choice is "which" D man to keep.

While I agree that Spurg used to be a hidden gem (BS/SOG/+-), I too think his value is declining with the emergence of Dumba. In fact, I expect it'll be closer to being on par with what Brodie offers this year.

Miller is the choice imo, despite weak BS totals, as those are the kind of Dmen you CAN actually find later in the draft (Russell, de Haan, etc.) if you really need to address that cat. Plus, with Schmidt out the first 20, perhaps Miller gets some increased ice time and that leads to better BS numbers.

Regardless of that, I'm going Miller here.

Thanks Yzer! So definitely going Miller, but I get to keep one more between Spurgeon and Brodie (assuming I don't keep Simmonds). It's tempting to keep Brodie instead of Spurgeon, but it's a very tough call. Brodie re-teaming with Giordano is actually great news in that regard, could put him back up to 40-45 pts with solid peripherals, and Hamilton being replaced by Hanifin takes away one of the threats to Brodie's PP time. Other advantage over Spurgeon is that the latter is injury-prone, having never played a full 82-game season.

[ross10019]

Im still really struggling with this choice, and now my added dilemma is I traded Miller in a trade that brought me Josh Bailey - so now I've got the following;

C: Stamkos, Tavares, Marchessault, Getzlaf - 4 sure-fire keepers
W: Marchand, Ehlers - 2 sure-fire keepers
D: Karlson, Burns - 2 sure-re keepers

So I have 4 more spots to fill and can choose from the following Ws and Dmen:

W: Toffoli, Lee, Bailey, Simmonds
D: Spurgeon, Brodie

The KEY consideration here is we start 5 Dmen each week, and I think it's dangerous to go into the draft with only Karlsson and Burns - so I'm very tempted to keep Spurgeon (I think he's the better keeper over Brodie) and then keep 3 other Ws.

My gut is telling me Toffoli, Lee, and Bailey, and I would drop Simmonds. But Simmonds remains a tough drop in a contract year, and the Lee/Bailey combo scares me for obvious reasons (JT departure, may not repeat last year's success, bad plus/minus, etc.).

Last thoughts? Keeper deadline is tomorrow!