NHL Mock Draft - PICKS

[PenguinHunter]

8.6 - Tyson Barrie

A healthy season and he is your next 70 point Defenseman. And with Mackinnon, Landeskog, Jost and Rantanen all a year older, I think the minus numbers for the team are improved which is Barrie's clear weakness.

[StuntMan12]

8.7 Sebastian Aho (F) - Carolina Hurricanes

[GinFizz]

8.8 Clayton Keller

#hitsareoverrated

[Pengwin7]

I like this run on the young & emerging.
Funny thing about my next pick, two years ago - entering his sophmore season, I invested as a heavy-firm believer in what I saw.
What I got, statistically, was one of the bigger sophmore let-downs I've have ever seen.
He had a ridiculously low sh% for such a high SOG rate.
It was a bit like that last year too... but at least he scored points.

If the SH% correct in year 4... if the PPP comes, he'll be worth the pick.
With the 8.9 pick, Pengwin's Penguins select: Dylan Larkin.

(photo later)
Gotta run to kids put-down, so somebody PM finny or get his list if you want to keep rollin...

[pmorrow]

Per finny's list:

8.10 - Brayden Point

[pmorrow]

Per DD's list:

8.11 - Charlie McAvoy

[Eskimo Brother]

Well I'm way ahead of you all in skater categories, so I guess I should pick my first goalie. And since you should always put 200% effort into everything, I'll take two

8.12 - Jake Allen
9.1 - Henrik Lundqvist


Reasoning:
Two of the goalies left that are basically guaranteed starters. Allen has prospects behind him, and Chad Johnson. Hank has Mazanec, and extremely green prospects.
St. Louis looks to be a vastly improved team based on their skater depth, so if Allen is even league average (which he can be) then wins will be easy enough to come by.
New York is playing in a division where, after the two biggest threats of Pit/Wsh, it's anyone's game for that third division playoff spot. Yes it's likely Philly's, but they have very little forward depth, and no goaltending. New York, as a young & fast team could surprise a few people, and that defence core (outside of Brendan Smith - who should be scratched) doesn't look half bad now. I like them to at least push to be a part of the playoff bubble picture.

Was hoping Raanta would fall, but also good to see about where he would be selected if I don't reach for him in other drafts.

[DusterDave]

Jake Gardiner

**pukes a little in mouth**

[pmorrow]

Per Finny: Cory Schneider

[Pengwin7]

My next pick is going to be a strange one.
People know that I like numbers... and patterns.
So if somebody tells me a 33-year-old's last 5 seasons look like this: 27p/27p/28p/36p/61p... what would I say?
I think all of us numbers pundits may say: "Oh, that 61pts has to be an outlier!!! This is truly a 30pt player!!!"
And he's 33. It's just a lucky year, right? (We say)
What if I look closer at those last 5 seasons of TOI, and they look like this: 15:50/16:31/16:10/19:50.
Huh? A spike from being a 16min/TOI player to a 20min TOI player.
What gives?

It either makes sense... or it doesn't.
Q: Does a 4min/gp bump in TOI for a 33-year old make sense?
A: Not a lot. 33-year-olds don't REINVENT their game. But did something change?

So, by now, some of you may know that this player is Dustin Brown.
From age 22-28 he had 5-6 straight seasons of 50+pts with 15+PPP, with 200+sog, and with 200+hits.
And then... 4 straight seasons under 40pts. Oh dear.

Q: What gives?
A: A coach. A "C". PP usage.
Dustin Brown was not loved in the Darryl Sutter system. The team won some Cups and Brown had to take a backseat.
Eventually, he was relieved of his Captaincy, passed to Kopitar.
And then... last year... LA got a new coach - John Stevens.
Stevens invested in Brown. He put Brown on the top line. He put Brown on the top PP1 unit. He stuck him in front of the net and told him to work.

The result:


Dustin Brown works as the LA PP net-front presence. (Which is great for those wondering if new LA additions bump him off PP1)
He's one of the best net-front players in the game, even at just 6' tall.
He's one of the best puck-tippers in the game.
And his LA teammates know to get a puck near the net for a tip.
He gets lead-protect time, and hence some empty netters.
And he can still pick a corner with a twister wrister.
The result of all this is 28g, 61p... and the top fantasy player (by far... based on last season's stats) remaining in this draft.

Will he repeat those stats? No, probably not.
Can he repeat 80%+ of those stats? Yes, probably, because he works with Kopitar and he works on PP1-netmouth.
And that's enough to draft him here.
(And what y'all should hope for & consider is that your fellow fantasy poolies are JUST keen enough to not trust Brown... but also not keen enough to know about Brown's TOI bump & faith from new coach Stevens. Yer welcome.)

With the 9-4 pick, Pengwin's Penguins selects Dustin Brown.
Said Brown: "I'm no Nick Foligno."

[GinFizz]

9-5 Aaron Ekblad

D - Carlson,Ghost,Ekblad

#bringit

[StuntMan12]

I whipped out my trusty Dobber Magazine to make this pick. I believe he is the last of the Tier 2 goalies left since you guys went on a huge run there .... without further ado, I'd like to select from the Calgary Flames ...

9.6 Mike Smith (G) - Calgary Flames

[PenguinHunter]

9.7 Viktor Arvidsson

There was 6 names that I was considering here... I tossed them all in a hat and pulled one out...

Just kidding. I decided to go with Arvidsson because of his shot totals and plus minus, but it was the hardest decision of the draft for me to this point.

[The Comish]

9.8 D-Ryan Ellis NSH

Very happy with this pick. His pro-rated numbers are amazing in the categories I want.

- - - Updated - - -

9.8 D-Ryan Ellis NSH

Very happy with this pick. His pro-rated numbers are amazing in the categories I want.

EDIT: So happy that I double posted!! This site gets me.

[Zorro]

9.9 Keith Yandle D FLA