What do I do with the 1st overall

[guinan13]

Hi guys,
I won the lottery on a keeper (pts only, not the one in sig, the one below). What should I do with it?

My team is young and middle of the pack :
Pastrnak, Scheifele, Granlund (Min), Carter, Niederreiter, Galchenyuk, Arvidsson, Jenner, Burakovsky, Reinhart, Tolvanen, Zacha, Barzal, DeBrincat
Keith, Leddy, Ristolanen, Rielly (Tor), Klefbom, Montour, Brannstrom, DeAngelo, Makar
Allen, Murray, Demko, Shesterkin
Picks 2018 : 1, 11, 15, 22, 27, 39, 51, 63, 75

1) Draft Dahlin and wait -- (he'll be a 60pts ou a 75pts d-man?)

2) Draft Elias Petterson -- (yes, he's still available ...)

3) Trade 1st vs 4th overall + ROR + Palmieri -- (No Dahlin, no Petterson, I pick who?? Zadina or Borgstrom??)

4) Trade 1st + Sam Reinhart vs 10th + 34th + Dumba + Pulock -- (this one is probably tweakable, I would prefer keep Reinhart ...)

Your opinion? Thanks !

[Zorro]

If those are your only options I would keep the pick.. Have you made it knowm that you are taking offers on the 1st overall pick?? How many teams in this league??
You need help between the pipes!!

[dh2k]

Keep the pick and take Petterson.

[stevegamer]

I'd offer it out to the league and see if you get any more bites.

Keeping the pick is fine, but possibly sub-optimal, as it has bust risk. Moving down to 2 is great if you can do it and get something extra if you are truly neutral between 2 options. You might get an offer to move up, or you might be able to pull that off by dropping to 4, and then moving up to 2.

I do somewhat like the offer to get the #4 pick, as you'd get a very good prospect, plus players.

What is your roster size, including any minors? How many open roster spots do you have? How many do you start at each spot?

[Jouko-Pouko]

If Pettersson is available, I'd try to trade down to #3 and pick whoever is left between Svechnikov, Dahlin and Pettersson. But only if the offer is good enough - don't trade down just for fun.

[roenick27]

This would totally depend on the setup. As others have asked : how many roster spots etc. Being a points only keeper is there any weighting for D?
Knowing more would get a better answer here Imo. ..without the info I like JP's advice. I'd take petterson here but I think you can get a pick thrown in etc.

[Axeman33]

I have lots of questions for you before giving advice.

How many teams in your league?

How many do you start at each position?

You say it's points only but is it a H2H league or just a total actual points?

How do goalies get points? This is your weakest position from what I can see and if you plan on trading the pick, I'd be focusing on this.

How many do you actually roster? Some of your trades see you dealing the pick out and bringing in a bunch of players/picks back in. Does that force you to drop multiple players to make room for the others should you consider trading the pick?

Do you have a minors system or just everyone goes on your roster?

[guinan13]

Sorry, I totally forgot to explain the setup.
12 teams keeper, keep 23 1way, illimited 2way, draft 7
Weekly lineup (10FW, 5D, 2G) with NHL salary cap
Goal (1pt); Assist (1); RegWin (2); OT/SO Win (1);

So I've actually no roster space problem and no cap problem.

The minute I've won the lottery, I've made it clear that the 1st overall was available.
The 3rd option is a limited offer because he's trading Palmieri to another GM. The draft is in september so I'm not in a hurry.
Yes my goalies are so-so but it cost an arm to get goalies in this league and they are the position who give less point.

It's the same guy who have the 3rd and 4th and he made it clear I won't get the 3rd cause he really want Pettersson.

I'm waiting for an offer of the 5th.

My best case scenario would be to drop 2nd and the Pettersson or Dahlin + an asset.

[Axeman33]

Sorry, I totally forgot to explain the setup.
12 teams keeper, keep 23, draft 7
Weekly lineup (10FW, 5D, 2G) with NHL salary cap
Goal (1pt); Assist (1); Win (2); SO (1)

The minute I've won the lottery, I've made it clear that the 1st overall was available.
The 3rd option is a limited offer because he's trading Palmieri to another GM. The draft is in september so I'm not in a hurry.
Yes my goalies are so-so but it cost an arm to get goalies in this league.

It's the same guy who have the 3rd and 4th and he made it clear I won't get the 3rd cause he really want Pettersson.

I'm waiting for an offer of the 5th.

My best case scenario would be to drop 2nd and the Pettersson or Dahlin + an asset.

I'd keep the pick and draft Petterson.

I would at the very least use this info to my advantage vs the other GM. ROR is not a good option in a points only, salary cap setup. He's a 55-60 type guy making way too much money for that little production. You'd need better value players in a cap league if you are going to do this. Not only are you giving him a better player but you are helping his cap situation by taking on a dump in ROR. Make him pay for that.

I'd tell the other GM, if he wants 1st overall, and keep his 3rd overall, he would have to make a much better trade for you along with the 4th overall then someone like ROR and Palmeiri. If he isn't willing, take Pettersson.

[Zorro]

It's the same guy who have the 3rd and 4th and he made it clear I won't get the 3rd cause he really want Pettersson

I would then tell him >> "Sorry, you aren't getting 1st overall because I plan on taking Pettersson"

[Magicstew]

Tell the guy who has the 3rd & 4th pick that you are drafting Petterson first and ask what he will offer for him then - he has huge upside. See if he will give you the 3rd. Dahlin may fall to 3rd or 4th here. Pts only may be a few years before Dahlin is relevant (50+ pts). getting ROR + is a benefit for you, but I would ask for 3 & 4 and throw in a 2nd rounder.
If he won't bite I'm taking Petterson with #1 in pts only - going to be feeding BB for years, think Backstrom and Ovi

[guinan13]

Thanks everyone.
I'll hold on my pick for now and I'll try to drop second if possible (pick the remaining of Dahlin or Pettersson, I'm ok with it !)

[Pengwin7]

Just catching this thread.
Points only leagues with 10F/5D, its all about relative difference.

With 10 teams, you've got 100F in play. What did the #100 NHL F score last year? Call that "Waiver Wire F Value".
With 10 teams, you've got 50D in play. What did the #50 NHL D score last year? Call that "Waiver Wire D Value".

Then, you need to try to forecast your pick options:
1. What does an F score (Petersson, Svechnikov)?
2. What does a D score (Dahlin)?

You draft the guy with the greatest relative difference between him and waiver level at that position.

For me, I'd expect Dahlin to be near 75pts once BUF starts humming with Eichel & crew.
I think your waiver wire D at #50 is somewhere around... 30pts?

I see Petersson as perhaps a 85pt forward.
I think your waiver wire F at #100 is somewhere around... 45pts?

That makes Dahlin +45 and Petersson +40.
But you'd have to go through this exercise yourself to really know who pans out higher.

[Kabonov]

If Pettersson is available, I'd try to trade down to #3 and pick whoever is left between Svechnikov, Dahlin and Pettersson. But only if the offer is good enough - don't trade down just for fun.

I would do this too

[als_revenge]

If the guy really wants Peterssen, trade 1st for 3rd (and a nice haul, but not ROR) with a condition that you won't draft Peterssen. Then you can take whoever is there between Dahlin and Svech, and the guy with the 4th pick can still think he has a shot at him.

Also, I will ask the obvious question: why is Petersson still available?