Looking to move in rookie draft!

[lorenzin]

I currently have 2 1st rd pick in a 16 team standard league. I am in negotiations to move up into the top 3... I own the 8th and 16th pick in the drafts and I could swing a deal of my Tolvanen and 8th for the 3rd pick (Likely Zadina)... is that a good move or is it lateral in that Tolvanen and Zadina have similar trajectories?

OR I also have had some negotiations for the 1st pick with a GM (he also has the 7th) but he wants Draisaitl in return. Is there any way that trade makes sense? D-Men are hard to come by in this league. It isn't a redraft league so what you have is what you have for the most part.

Stats for league are

G A P PPP SOG FW HIT BLK

thanks!

[als_revenge]

While my instinct is to say no to Draisaitl for Dahlin, I have no idea what your depth is like at C versus D, or how many start at each position. And while I have a slight preference for Zadina, I'm probably wouldn't give up Tolvanen and the 8th pick. Especially considering the 8th pick could snag you a high-end D prospect, which you seem to covet.

Would be helpful if you posted your full team and how many start at each position.

Edit: how can you have been around since 2010 with no rep power? I sent some your way...

[Tfan5211]

I think you could probably get a good D man with the 8th overall pick. So I wouldn't trade draisaitl. I also wouldn't do the Tolvanen trade also. I think they are on a similar level. To give up a pick also doesn't seem worth it to me

[MZac]

Without seeing your team it's a pass on both for me.

[fungchen3]

lorenzin,

Without seeing the full picture, it's hard to tell. But, my initial thoughts are that neither of these proposed deals are good from a value standpoint.
Let's start with Tolvanen and 8th for 3rd (Zadina)... I'd say this is the risk with that trade...

Scenario 1
Zadina is the pick and he scores 50-60 points on avg. over the next two seasons before entering his prime years of 68-80 points.
Tolvanen scores 45-60 points on avg. over the next two seasons before entering his prime years of 60-72 points.
the 8th overall pick ends up one of... Boqvist, Dobson, Farebee. You are conceding what's most likely a D with 45-55+ point upside, or another forward, who if he reaches his ceiling, could be on par with Tolvanen and reasonably close to Zadina.
That's a lot to give up for a likely 10-15 point boost down the line. It's not like Zadina projects to be a Laine or Eichel (85+ forward).

Scenario 2
Svechnikov and Zadina go 1-2 and Dahlin falls into your lap. You need to take him. He scores 40-50 points over the next 3 seasons before exploding into a 55-65+ point, high-end stud.
Tolvanen scores 45-60 points on avg. over the next two season before entering his prime years of 60-72 points.
the 8th overall pick ends up one of... Boqvist, Dobson, Farebee. You are conceding what's most likely a D with 45-55+ point upside.
Again, you'd be potentially giving up a future 60-72 point forward and a 45-55+ point defenseman for a 55-65 point D.
This is very risky, considering Dahlin will be an elite, two-way D in the mold of Hedman / Doughty and you could have had a high-end offensive D like Boqvist in the mold of Gostisbehere / Klingberg... in addition to keeping Tolvanen.

Next, let's look at the Draisaitl for 1st overall pick (Dahlin)...

This time last year, poolies were gushing over Draisaitl being a future 82-92 point monster moving forward - the "Messier" to McDavid's "Gretzky". After a down year (if 70 points can be considered "down"), he's suddenly an afterthought or no longer en vogue? Don't fall for it. Draisaitl is a hulking center with 80-90 point upside entering 2019-20. Quite honestly, from a pure fantasy perspective, he'd go 1st overall in most drafts this year, ahead of Dahlin, Svechnikov, Zadina if he were a free agent in those leagues.

With your 8th overall pick, you will likely have your choice between Boqvist, Dobson or Smith - if you insist on targeting D.
Boqvist is pure offense - big shot, slick PP QB. In the NHL, Dahlin will likely be far superior, but the gap could be much closer in fantasy.
How about if Dobson continues to polish off his already-impressive game? He'll top off as a 6-5, 220 pound, smooth-skating monster with untapped upside. This kid has "Pietrangelo" and "Hamilton" written all over him. I'd even argue his ultimate upside (if everything goes 100% perfectly) is Seth Jones... or Zach Werenski if we want to be more conservative.
Smith, while not the ideal candidate for this pick, could be a HR play if he ends up being drafted the by Oilers and turning into their version of Tyson Barrie. That's potentially a fantasy gold situation.

Neither of these deals "feel good" to me right off the bat. Tolvanen and 8 for 3 is a stone cold NO from me. The Draisaitl for Dahlin is more approachable but I'd still pass. I mean, if you replaced Draisaitl with a Malkin or Wheeler (an 80-90 point forward who is 30+ years old) then it's a different story. But Draisaitl is 22 and didn't even get cranking yet.

[Pengwin7]

OR I also have had some negotiations for the 1st pick with a GM (he also has the 7th) but he wants Draisaitl in return. Is there any way that trade makes sense?

Stats for league are

G A P PPP SOG FW HIT BLK

thanks!

For honesty, I don't quite know what numbers Dahlin will put up in HIT, BLK... but lets consider that he's more of a scoring-heavy machine.
Draisaitl will be a 6-cat monster, getting everything but HIT & BLK.
Dahlin will be a 5-cat monster, assuming all but FOW, HIT & BLK.
D who can give points and PPP are uber-valuable... but often D can be rostered JUST for HIT/BLK... and the only way to win BLK is to have enough BLK-heavy D.

It depends a bit on how many roster positions you have.
If you have a 4/4/4/6 league, I like Dahlin, I'm looking to roster 2-3 high scoring D and 3-4 HIT/BLK D. The FOW missed from Draisaitl can be made up in depth FOW-specialists, like a Bozak or Vermette.
If you have a 3/3/3/5 league, I start to hedge more towards Draisaitl, because you just can't afford to roster a Bozak or Vermette in your C3 spot.

And... it's league dependent - you have to know the other teams and whether you want to be able to compete with them in FOW or rather need to be strong in points, which you'll do better if you have Dahlin.

Tough call, I'm quite interested in this one.
As for first item, I'd go with the the 3pick and send Tolvanen & 8th. I think whoever falls to you at #3 could be a PP1, first line (or first pairing) monster.

I dealt away my #8 overall this year, because I think the fantasy value drops off after the top 6or7 in HIT/BLK leagues.