Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 1 2
Results 16 to 25 of 25

Thread: Mittelstadt vs #2 Pick in 2018 Draft *REP*

  1. #16
    Location
    Regina, SK...EH!
    Rep Power
    43

    Dobber Sports Star

    Default Re: Mittelstadt vs #2 Pick in 2018 Draft *REP*

    Man I totally had that backwards..i thought you had #2 and was offered Mitts for it. I guess you can tell where I stand with the offer but knowing u have #3 As well keeping Mitts and drafting one of Zadina or Svech is the right call.
    ESPN Roto 10 team
    24 man roster (+1 IR) - Keep 20 - Daily settings
    Start 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 5D, 2G, 1UTIL
    G,A,PTS, +/-, PIM, PPA, PPG, D PTS - W, SV, SV%

    C- Point, Larkin, Hischier, Horvat, DStrome
    RW- Boeser, Rantanen, Debrincat, Tolvanen, Ho-Sang
    LW- Konecny(C/RW), Keller(C/RW), Buchnevich, Domi(C), Bratt (RW)
    D- Klefbom, Chabot, Trouba, Hamilton, Pulock
    G- Allen, Lehner, Demko, Markstrom
    IR -

    2018 Pick Nos: 1st, 2nd, 6th and 10th OA
    2019 Picks in Round 1,1,2,3


    From this day fwd i refuse to correct teh spelling of the word 'teh'



  2. #17
    Location
    Philly
    Rep Power
    50

    Dobber Sports Legend

    Default Re: Mittelstadt vs #2 Pick in 2018 Draft *REP*

    Quote Originally Posted by Jouko-Pouko View Post
    I guess I'm a new school guy then because I like to take as much input as possible - comments from trusted scouts, analytics, and the good old eye test. It's impossible to watch all the prospects 50 times a year, so stats can sometimes reveal something you may not see during those ~10 times you watch a player. And different scouts value different things on prospects and most likely watch different games than I do, so it's good to take their inputs as well even though I may not always agree with it. But to each their own - everyone can scout prospects just as they wish.
    JP,

    One thing I've learned over the years - we're all wrong at various times lol. Even the best of scouts, coaches and managers. Look at Alex DeBrincat and Philippe Myers. These kids didn't even sneak though in the early-80s, when scouting wasn't nearly as robust and revered as it is today. I got into a lengthy conversation with someone about this at the WJs in Buffalo - and how Alex DeBrincat was cut from the team at one point, after producing at a sick pace, and showing off world class skills.
    I mean, everyone gasped at the draft when Jarmo Kekalainen walked up to the podium and selected Pierre-Luc Dubois over higher-ranked Finnish prospect, Jesse Puljujarvi.
    2006, the Blues take E.Johnson 1st overall.
    Pens take J.Staal 2nd.
    Then goes a run on Toews, Backstrom, Kessel.

    Gudbranson, Niederreiter and Connolly over Skinner, Fowler, Schwartz and Tarasenko in 2010.

    Drouin and E.Lindholm over Monahan in 2013.

    And, forget about 2012 when they all got it wrong. Look at this mess ...

    1. Yakupov
    2. R.Murray
    3. Galchenyuk
    4. G.Reinhart

    over ...

    Rielly (5)
    H.Lindholm (6)
    Dumba (7)
    Trouba (9)
    Forsberg (11)
    Teravainen (18)
    Vasilevskiy (19)
    etc., etc.

    Pick a year - any year - it happens.
    Remember Adam Larsson was supposed to be Rasmus Dahlin before Rasmus Dahlin? Insane amounts of hype around that kid, and I bought it all, hook, line and sinker, even though I was watching him play and was saying to myself, "Gees, I really don't see the greatness here." He made a couple of nice plays in preseason his rookie year as a Devil and I thought that maybe he was the real deal. He's a solid, D, but come on - the hype and stats, and narrative was all there. I ignored my own eyes and gut - even though it was telling me this dude wouldn't be some offensive, two-way force.

    That was 2011, and the first 5 picks fell ...

    1. Nugent-Hopkins
    2. Landeskog
    3. Huberdeau
    4. Larsson
    5. R.Strome

    The next 5 were ...

    6. Zibanejad
    7. Scheifele
    8. Couturier
    9. Hamilton
    10. Brodin

    Today, which group of 5 is better?
    Point being, this happens all the time.
    Last year I thought the Flyers purchased snake oil with Nolan Patrick at 2. They fell into the "this is a 2 player draft" narrative, and seduced themselves with a big, strong, Canadian kid with bloodlines. While completely ignoring the fact that his body, at 18 years old, resembled a victim in a 6 car pile up on the expressway, with all the injuries and surgeries. Not that Patrick is a bad player - I think he will be a solid, good player, but he lacks borderline-elite talent and potential that you would like to get with a 2nd overall pick. And his injuries were more than many retire with.

    Meanehile a kid like Mittelstadt was absolutely lights-out and is a poster boy for where the NHL is heading - not where it's been. But the narrative on Casey was, "he can't do pull-ups." Mittelstadt even walked into the Wells Fargo Center in Philly and completely made mincemeat out of the other prospects in a game that I saw live. It was the first time I've seen him live and I was blown away, the same way I was watching all of the film I possible could on him.

    I go back to when Klusak and Wickenheiser were taken over Savard and Bellows, etc. When Nedved was taken over Jagr, Niedermayer and Brodeur.
    I only trust the scouts, reports, and junior stats so much. I put more credit into that stuff if the player: A) Has a consensus tag of "generational" next to their name, or B) When I study their film, or have a chance to see them for myself, and they impress me.

    The way I see it - if I'm proven wrong, and I definitely have been, at least I made my own conclusion, based on what I truly felt, and wasn't just taking someone's word for it, or solely reading narratives and stats. I think that's the only way to go and I find it incredibly fun because I don't have a life!

    But, man, when I see a scout say, "Zadina will be a playmaker" I cringe and shake my head. Then I say to myself, "no wonder why there are so many misses." This one is just common sense. I think a martian can drop from the sky, watch 30 minutes of film on Zadina, and be able to tell us in Klingon that he is a goal scorer.
    Whether he can be as great at scoring goals in the NHL is another thing. But he will not suddenly change his DNA and become Craig Janney.

  3. #18
    Location
    Tampere, Finland
    Rep Power
    50

    Dobber Sports Superstar

    Default Re: Mittelstadt vs #2 Pick in 2018 Draft *REP*

    Quote Originally Posted by fungchen3 View Post
    The way I see it - if I'm proven wrong, and I definitely have been, at least I made my own conclusion, based on what I truly felt, and wasn't just taking someone's word for it, or solely reading narratives and stats. I think that's the only way to go and I find it incredibly fun because I don't have a life!
    You're preaching to the choir saying how difficult scouting is and how everyone has hits and misses, even the guys who do that for a living. Some people have totally unrealistic expectations, and when someone like Button or Pronman misses on someone, they should be banned from the Internet because they weren't 100% correct with their rankings... And yet, NHL GMs have similar misses all the time, and they're paid millions of dollars to make those decisions.

    But I think you missed my point about taking inputs from different sources. That doesn't mean I just take someone's word and go with that. I try to understand why a trusted scout likes or doesn't like a player, take that input and watch that player again to see if I see the same thing or not. Or I look at analysis and when someone jumps out positively or negatively, I try to figure out why that has happened - have I missed something or is something skewing the analysis. And then based on every little input I've received, I make my own decisions and draw my own conclusions.

    And just like everyone else, I have my hits and misses but at least I can say I took all the information available to me and made the best possible decision based on that - and then I try to figure out what went wrong and what adjustments I can make to avoid those misses in the future. For example, I look at my draft rankings from last July and see that I had Robert Thomas at #22... That was a bad miss. And I still haven't figured out why that happened. Obviously I also had Chytil at #21 but that's easier to understand because he really came out of nowhere. Same with Tolvanen at #19 - I head about potential attitude issues and was scared but all those concerns have been washed away this season. By the way, here's a link to those rankings in case you're curious: https://forums.dobbersports.com/show...antasy-ranking
    Writer & scout at DobberProspects, focusing on Finnish Liiga, Swedish SHL, and the Florida Panthers. Find me on Twitter @JokkeNevalainen

    >> My latest Liiga report & latest SHL report

    "I never trust people who are 'sure' of things. I trust those who are temporarily confident in their current interpretations." - Dr. Andreo Spina

  4. #19
    Location
    Philly
    Rep Power
    50

    Dobber Sports Legend

    Default Re: Mittelstadt vs #2 Pick in 2018 Draft *REP*

    Quote Originally Posted by Jouko-Pouko View Post
    You're preaching to the choir saying how difficult scouting is and how everyone has hits and misses, even the guys who do that for a living. Some people have totally unrealistic expectations, and when someone like Button or Pronman misses on someone, they should be banned from the Internet because they weren't 100% correct with their rankings... And yet, NHL GMs have similar misses all the time, and they're paid millions of dollars to make those decisions.

    But I think you missed my point about taking inputs from different sources. That doesn't mean I just take someone's word and go with that. I try to understand why a trusted scout likes or doesn't like a player, take that input and watch that player again to see if I see the same thing or not. Or I look at analysis and when someone jumps out positively or negatively, I try to figure out why that has happened - have I missed something or is something skewing the analysis. And then based on every little input I've received, I make my own decisions and draw my own conclusions.

    And just like everyone else, I have my hits and misses but at least I can say I took all the information available to me and made the best possible decision based on that - and then I try to figure out what went wrong and what adjustments I can make to avoid those misses in the future. For example, I look at my draft rankings from last July and see that I had Robert Thomas at #22... That was a bad miss. And I still haven't figured out why that happened. Obviously I also had Chytil at #21 but that's easier to understand because he really came out of nowhere. Same with Tolvanen at #19 - I head about potential attitude issues and was scared but all those concerns have been washed away this season. By the way, here's a link to those rankings in case you're curious: https://forums.dobbersports.com/show...antasy-ranking
    I actually really like Button, just don't agree with him all the time. Same with Bobby MacK, but his take is usually a consensus based on the scouts he talks to.
    Interesting point, in a recent Bobcast, he was asked if some scouts intentionally over-value or devalue prospects with him as a tactic to sway perceptions on draft day. And he said, yes, he does believe some of that exists, but he feels there's enough info out there to balance it out. Interesting point on gamesmanship though.

    As for your 2017 rankings, I think you did a very nice job! I never understood the Patrick love though, for fantasy, which sucks because my Flyers were in that 2 slot and I was hoping the Devils took him 1st. But I always thought Mittelstadt and Makar should be a little higher than they were continually ranked, but you were a lot better than the majority I've seen, especially with Mittelstadt. And great call on Pettersson.

  5. #20
    Location
    Tampere, Finland
    Rep Power
    50

    Dobber Sports Superstar

    Default Re: Mittelstadt vs #2 Pick in 2018 Draft *REP*

    Quote Originally Posted by fungchen3 View Post
    I actually really like Button, just don't agree with him all the time. Same with Bobby MacK, but his take is usually a consensus based on the scouts he talks to.
    Interesting point, in a recent Bobcast, he was asked if some scouts intentionally over-value or devalue prospects with him as a tactic to sway perceptions on draft day. And he said, yes, he does believe some of that exists, but he feels there's enough info out there to balance it out. Interesting point on gamesmanship though.

    As for your 2017 rankings, I think you did a very nice job! I never understood the Patrick love though, for fantasy, which sucks because my Flyers were in that 2 slot and I was hoping the Devils took him 1st. But I always thought Mittelstadt and Makar should be a little higher than they were continually ranked, but you were a lot better than the majority I've seen, especially with Mittelstadt. And great call on Pettersson.
    That question on Bobcast was from me!
    Writer & scout at DobberProspects, focusing on Finnish Liiga, Swedish SHL, and the Florida Panthers. Find me on Twitter @JokkeNevalainen

    >> My latest Liiga report & latest SHL report

    "I never trust people who are 'sure' of things. I trust those who are temporarily confident in their current interpretations." - Dr. Andreo Spina

  6. #21
    Location
    Philly
    Rep Power
    50

    Dobber Sports Legend

    Default Re: Mittelstadt vs #2 Pick in 2018 Draft *REP*

    Quote Originally Posted by Jouko-Pouko View Post
    That question on Bobcast was from me!
    Get out?! Haha, that's fantastic! And great question.

  7. #22
    Zorro's Avatar
    Zorro is online now
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Posts
    18,840
    Location
    Canada
    Rep Power
    50

    Dobber Sports Jedi

    Default Re: Mittelstadt vs #2 Pick in 2018 Draft *REP*

    Quote Originally Posted by fungchen3 View Post
    JP,

    One thing I've learned over the years - we're all wrong at various times lol. Even the best of scouts, coaches and managers. Look at Alex DeBrincat and Philippe Myers. These kids didn't even sneak though in the early-80s, when scouting wasn't nearly as robust and revered as it is today. I got into a lengthy conversation with someone about this at the WJs in Buffalo - and how Alex DeBrincat was cut from the team at one point, after producing at a sick pace, and showing off world class skills.
    I mean, everyone gasped at the draft when Jarmo Kekalainen walked up to the podium and selected Pierre-Luc Dubois over higher-ranked Finnish prospect, Jesse Puljujarvi.
    2006, the Blues take E.Johnson 1st overall.
    Pens take J.Staal 2nd.
    Then goes a run on Toews, Backstrom, Kessel.

    Gudbranson, Niederreiter and Connolly over Skinner, Fowler, Schwartz and Tarasenko in 2010.

    Drouin and E.Lindholm over Monahan in 2013.

    And, forget about 2012 when they all got it wrong. Look at this mess ...

    1. Yakupov
    2. R.Murray
    3. Galchenyuk
    4. G.Reinhart

    over ...

    Rielly (5)
    H.Lindholm (6)
    Dumba (7)
    Trouba (9)
    Forsberg (11)
    Teravainen (18)
    Vasilevskiy (19)
    etc., etc.

    Pick a year - any year - it happens.
    Remember Adam Larsson was supposed to be Rasmus Dahlin before Rasmus Dahlin? Insane amounts of hype around that kid, and I bought it all, hook, line and sinker, even though I was watching him play and was saying to myself, "Gees, I really don't see the greatness here." He made a couple of nice plays in preseason his rookie year as a Devil and I thought that maybe he was the real deal. He's a solid, D, but come on - the hype and stats, and narrative was all there. I ignored my own eyes and gut - even though it was telling me this dude wouldn't be some offensive, two-way force.

    That was 2011, and the first 5 picks fell ...

    1. Nugent-Hopkins
    2. Landeskog
    3. Huberdeau
    4. Larsson
    5. R.Strome

    The next 5 were ...

    6. Zibanejad
    7. Scheifele
    8. Couturier
    9. Hamilton
    10. Brodin

    Today, which group of 5 is better?
    Point being, this happens all the time.
    Last year I thought the Flyers purchased snake oil with Nolan Patrick at 2. They fell into the "this is a 2 player draft" narrative, and seduced themselves with a big, strong, Canadian kid with bloodlines. While completely ignoring the fact that his body, at 18 years old, resembled a victim in a 6 car pile up on the expressway, with all the injuries and surgeries. Not that Patrick is a bad player - I think he will be a solid, good player, but he lacks borderline-elite talent and potential that you would like to get with a 2nd overall pick. And his injuries were more than many retire with.

    Meanehile a kid like Mittelstadt was absolutely lights-out and is a poster boy for where the NHL is heading - not where it's been. But the narrative on Casey was, "he can't do pull-ups." Mittelstadt even walked into the Wells Fargo Center in Philly and completely made mincemeat out of the other prospects in a game that I saw live. It was the first time I've seen him live and I was blown away, the same way I was watching all of the film I possible could on him.

    I go back to when Klusak and Wickenheiser were taken over Savard and Bellows, etc. When Nedved was taken over Jagr, Niedermayer and Brodeur.
    I only trust the scouts, reports, and junior stats so much. I put more credit into that stuff if the player: A) Has a consensus tag of "generational" next to their name, or B) When I study their film, or have a chance to see them for myself, and they impress me.

    The way I see it - if I'm proven wrong, and I definitely have been, at least I made my own conclusion, based on what I truly felt, and wasn't just taking someone's word for it, or solely reading narratives and stats. I think that's the only way to go and I find it incredibly fun because I don't have a life!

    But, man, when I see a scout say, "Zadina will be a playmaker" I cringe and shake my head. Then I say to myself, "no wonder why there are so many misses." This one is just common sense. I think a martian can drop from the sky, watch 30 minutes of film on Zadina, and be able to tell us in Klingon that he is a goal scorer.
    Whether he can be as great at scoring goals in the NHL is another thing. But he will not suddenly change his DNA and become Craig Janney.
    This was a beauty post!! Enjoyed it thoroughly!!
    Zorro says "vote for Dobber"
    Angus is my best friend at dobberhockey..

  8. #23
    bergman's Avatar
    bergman is online now
    Join Date
    Oct 2015
    Posts
    555
    Location
    London, ON
    Rep Power
    7

    Dobber Sports Apprentice

    Default Re: Mittelstadt vs #2 Pick in 2018 Draft *REP*

    Would you guys say that when looking back at past years' drafts and seeing players taken later actually out-producing and out-succeeding players taken earlier, that it wasn't a matter of assessing talent or potential incorrectly, but rather just the risk/roll-of-the-dice playing out exactly as (could be) predicted by scouts?

    Random inaccurate example:

    Player A: tools of an elite scoring winger, needs some work in many areas, scouts feel he could be elite but there is a large risk
    Player B: solid two-way winger who will play big minutes in the top-6 and there's a very good chance he'll contribute 55+ points every year

    8 years down the road, Player A turns out to be the better player with better career, adjusted for other stuff. But it was never a matter of scouts not realizing that, but rather a calculated decision by whoever had the higher pick to avoid the risk involved with Player A and take Player B, because forgoing Player B for Player A was too costly.

    That doesn't explain picks like Yakupov, for example, but I just wonder sometimes if "steals" late in the first or even later in the draft aren't really "steals" but just scouts and GMs collectively avoiding the risk, and one team getting lucky. Mittelstadt could even be an example of that. Playing in highschool during draft year, he could (still) completely flop, so despite his skills, why take him at 6th, 4th, etc when there are likelier scorers you'd have to pass on to do so... it's early but so far looks like the risk with Mitts is paying off.
    Bergman - est. 2015

    H2H Dynasty 20-team, 32+10m Roster - G A Pts +/- PPP Sh Hit Blk FOW W GAA Sv% SHO

    C: Barkov, Monahan, Nugent-Hopkins, Wennberg, Eriksson Ek, Jost, Roslovic, Dahlen, Mittelstadt
    LW: Beauvillier, Dubois, Bjork, Hudon, De La Rose, Vesalainen
    RW: Okposo, E.Lindholm, Smith, J. Anderson, Bjorkstrand, Thompson, Tippet
    D: Letang, Carlson, Skjei, Beaulieu, G.Carlsson, Pulock, Pouliot, Mete, R.Andersson, Wood, Larsson, Juulsen
    G: Price, Mrazek, Brossoit, Demko, Lindgren, Montembeault

  9. #24
    Location
    Tampere, Finland
    Rep Power
    50

    Dobber Sports Superstar

    Default Re: Mittelstadt vs #2 Pick in 2018 Draft *REP*

    Quote Originally Posted by bergman View Post
    Would you guys say that when looking back at past years' drafts and seeing players taken later actually out-producing and out-succeeding players taken earlier, that it wasn't a matter of assessing talent or potential incorrectly, but rather just the risk/roll-of-the-dice playing out exactly as (could be) predicted by scouts?

    Random inaccurate example:

    Player A: tools of an elite scoring winger, needs some work in many areas, scouts feel he could be elite but there is a large risk
    Player B: solid two-way winger who will play big minutes in the top-6 and there's a very good chance he'll contribute 55+ points every year

    8 years down the road, Player A turns out to be the better player with better career, adjusted for other stuff. But it was never a matter of scouts not realizing that, but rather a calculated decision by whoever had the higher pick to avoid the risk involved with Player A and take Player B, because forgoing Player B for Player A was too costly.

    That doesn't explain picks like Yakupov, for example, but I just wonder sometimes if "steals" late in the first or even later in the draft aren't really "steals" but just scouts and GMs collectively avoiding the risk, and one team getting lucky. Mittelstadt could even be an example of that. Playing in highschool during draft year, he could (still) completely flop, so despite his skills, why take him at 6th, 4th, etc when there are likelier scorers you'd have to pass on to do so... it's early but so far looks like the risk with Mitts is paying off.
    Yes, I think this is correct in many cases. Especially NHL scouts and GMs prefer the safer options because they can point to their guys and say they're playing in the NHL whereas they could be fired if they pick a risky guy high and he ends up being a bust. That's why rating scouting accuracy based on "NHL games played" is flawed especially in the first round - a star player and a 4th line grinder shouldn't be scored equally. Is it better to get three depth players or one star player and two busts? I think I'd rather have that one star player. But most NHL teams would rather have three depth players because then they can't be fired for those busts. GMs and scouts are never fired for passing up elite talent - they're fired for drafting a bust. This is important to remember when drafting for fantasy hockey - it's OK to go for the high upside because your job is not on the line.
    Writer & scout at DobberProspects, focusing on Finnish Liiga, Swedish SHL, and the Florida Panthers. Find me on Twitter @JokkeNevalainen

    >> My latest Liiga report & latest SHL report

    "I never trust people who are 'sure' of things. I trust those who are temporarily confident in their current interpretations." - Dr. Andreo Spina

  10. #25
    Location
    Philly
    Rep Power
    50

    Dobber Sports Legend

    Default Re: Mittelstadt vs #2 Pick in 2018 Draft *REP*

    Quote Originally Posted by Jouko-Pouko View Post
    There are definitely some people who like Zadina as much as you do. For example, Mitch Brown from The Athletic wrote a great article about Zadina's goal-scoring abilities: Why Filip Zadina is the draft?s premier NHL-ready sniper.

    But I'd say majority believe Svechnikov will be the better goal-scorer. This is from The Athletic Mock Draft:


    (By the way, it was also Wheeler who said Zadina will be a high-end playmaker at the NHL level.)

    EDIT: Just wanted to add this great graph from Mitch Brown's Twitter account:
    JP,

    Just wanted to bump this and say - after our conversation, you inspired me to dig even deeper into Svechnikov. So this weekend I spent a lot of time watching as much film on him as possible and reading as much viable content as possible. I must say, I am liking him a little more than I was at the beginning of our conversation, mainly in the goal scoring department.
    This is no reflection on my feelings for Fil Zadina, whom I think will be a star, and high-end sniper. I still feel the same way about him (a potential 35-45 goal scorer in the NHL one day).
    But I am liking Svechnikov more, enough to say that any NHL should take him 2nd overall without question. I also bumped him up a tad in terms of potential fantasy production.

    Thought I would share this with you, and thank you for presenting enough of a case to motivate me to challenge my own initial evaluations. Good stuff.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •