JP,
One thing I've learned over the years - we're all wrong at various times lol. Even the best of scouts, coaches and managers. Look at Alex DeBrincat and Philippe Myers. These kids didn't even sneak though in the early-80s, when scouting wasn't nearly as robust and revered as it is today. I got into a lengthy conversation with someone about this at the WJs in Buffalo - and how Alex DeBrincat was cut from the team at one point, after producing at a sick pace, and showing off world class skills.
I mean, everyone gasped at the draft when Jarmo Kekalainen walked up to the podium and selected Pierre-Luc Dubois over higher-ranked Finnish prospect, Jesse Puljujarvi.
2006, the Blues take E.Johnson 1st overall.
Pens take J.Staal 2nd.
Then goes a run on Toews, Backstrom, Kessel.
Gudbranson, Niederreiter and Connolly over Skinner, Fowler, Schwartz and Tarasenko in 2010.
Drouin and E.Lindholm over Monahan in 2013.
And, forget about 2012 when they all got it wrong. Look at this mess ...
1. Yakupov
2. R.Murray
3. Galchenyuk
4. G.Reinhart
over ...
Rielly (5)
H.Lindholm (6)
Dumba (7)
Trouba (9)
Forsberg (11)
Teravainen (18)
Vasilevskiy (19)
etc., etc.
Pick a year - any year - it happens.
Remember Adam Larsson was supposed to be Rasmus Dahlin before Rasmus Dahlin? Insane amounts of hype around that kid, and I bought it all, hook, line and sinker, even though I was watching him play and was saying to myself, "Gees, I really don't see the greatness here." He made a couple of nice plays in preseason his rookie year as a Devil and I thought that maybe he was the real deal. He's a solid, D, but come on - the hype and stats, and narrative was all there. I ignored my own eyes and gut - even though it was telling me this dude wouldn't be some offensive, two-way force.
That was 2011, and the first 5 picks fell ...
1. Nugent-Hopkins
2. Landeskog
3. Huberdeau
4. Larsson
5. R.Strome
The next 5 were ...
6. Zibanejad
7. Scheifele
8. Couturier
9. Hamilton
10. Brodin
Today, which group of 5 is better?
Point being, this happens all the time.
Last year I thought the Flyers purchased snake oil with Nolan Patrick at 2. They fell into the "this is a 2 player draft" narrative, and seduced themselves with a big, strong, Canadian kid with bloodlines. While completely ignoring the fact that his body, at 18 years old, resembled a victim in a 6 car pile up on the expressway, with all the injuries and surgeries. Not that Patrick is a bad player - I think he will be a solid, good player, but he lacks borderline-elite talent and potential that you would like to get with a 2nd overall pick. And his injuries were more than many retire with.
Meanehile a kid like Mittelstadt was absolutely lights-out and is a poster boy for where the NHL is heading - not where it's been. But the narrative on Casey was, "he can't do pull-ups." Mittelstadt even walked into the Wells Fargo Center in Philly and completely made mincemeat out of the other prospects in a game that I saw live. It was the first time I've seen him live and I was blown away, the same way I was watching all of the film I possible could on him.
I go back to when Klusak and Wickenheiser were taken over Savard and Bellows, etc. When Nedved was taken over Jagr, Niedermayer and Brodeur.
I only trust the scouts, reports, and junior stats so much. I put more credit into that stuff if the player: A) Has a consensus tag of "generational" next to their name, or B) When I study their film, or have a chance to see them for myself, and they impress me.
The way I see it - if I'm proven wrong, and I definitely have been, at least I made my own conclusion, based on what I truly felt, and wasn't just taking someone's word for it, or solely reading narratives and stats. I think that's the only way to go and I find it incredibly fun because I don't have a life!
But, man, when I see a scout say, "Zadina will be a playmaker" I cringe and shake my head. Then I say to myself, "no wonder why there are so many misses." This one is just common sense. I think a martian can drop from the sky, watch 30 minutes of film on Zadina, and be able to tell us in Klingon that he is a goal scorer.
Whether he can be as great at scoring goals in the NHL is another thing. But he will not suddenly change his DNA and become Craig Janney.