cap guess

[roenick27]

I need some help in trying to decipher what a few contract will sign/ re sign for:

David Perron
Shea Theodore
Antoine Roussel

[Moses]

I'll take a stab at this.

David Perron $4.00M x 2yr - I think he stays in Vegas but is only offered a two-year deal. The "David Perron 2016" contract.
Shea Theodore $4.25M x 8yr - GMGM makes a gamble and signs him long term. The "Roman Josi 2013" contract.
Antoine Roussel $2.65M x 3yr - A GM who thinks their team needs team more toughness and grit will add the Frenchman. The "Derek Dorsett 2015" contract.

[PenguinHunter]

I'll take a stab at this.

David Perron $4.00M x 2yr - I think he stays in Vegas but is only offered a two-year deal. The "David Perron 2016" contract.
Shea Theodore $4.25M x 8yr - GMGM makes a gamble and signs him long term. The "Roman Josi 2013" contract.
Antoine Roussel $2.65M x 3yr - A GM who thinks their team needs team more toughness and grit will add the Frenchman. The "Derek Dorsett 2015" contract.

I think these are very solid reasoning behind these suggestions! Nice Work Moses.

Perron - I think 2 years is right... I think a bit higher salary I am thinking $5.00M X 2years. I think 5 is because GMGM knows that he would likely get $5.00M from another team and doesn't want to lose him. Got to try keeping him happy.

Shea Theodore I think Moses nailed it. Unless Theodore plays hardball and wants to cash in big time in 2 years. I could see a potential $3.50M X 2 years type bridge contract if he plays hardball.

Roussell - I am going to say less term on the deal but the salary is right. $2.65-2.85M for 1 year.

[Eskimo Brother]

I think Perron walks, so he ends up a little higher. My model has him at 6.2M x 5yrs, but I think that's a bit much. Just think about what Backes/Okposo/Lucic/Ladd got a couple years ago. All 5x6. A 5x4 kind of contract is very realistic here.

Theodore does still have a little to prove, but I agree that a long term deal is the smart play. However, the model says 3yrs @ 2.6M, which wouldn't be too far off of Trouba's contract from a couple years ago.

Don't have Roussel in my model yet, but I wouldn't guess he gets much. 2yrs x 1.5M maybe?

[Moses]

I think Perron walks, so he ends up a little higher. My model has him at 6.2M x 5yrs, but I think that's a bit much. Just think about what Backes/Okposo/Lucic/Ladd got a couple years ago. All 5x6. A 5x4 kind of contract is very realistic here.

@EB - I'm not going to argue with you that he could get more if he walks. That makes sense to me.

What I do want to add is that the contracts for Backes/Okposo/Lucic/Ladd/(Eriksson - my add) all look terrible only 2 seasons from when they were signed. There isn't a team in the league that would trade for one of those contracts. Woof. Using these a baseline for what future contracts should look like scares me. I know that GMs like to make the same mistakes over and over again but I want to at least hold out hope that teams aren't condidering giving 30 year old Perron a $5M x 5yr contract.

[Eskimo Brother]

@EB - I'm not going to argue with you that he could get more if he walks. That makes sense to me.

What I do want to add is that the contracts for Backes/Okposo/Lucic/Ladd/(Eriksson - my add) all look terrible only 2 seasons from when they were signed. There isn't a team in the league that would trade for one of those contracts. Woof. Using these a baseline for what future contracts should look like scares me. I know that GMs like to make the same mistakes oveer and over again but I want to at least hold out hope that that the teams aren't condidering giving 30 year old Perron a $5M x 5yr contract.

I agree that I hope GMs are learning from these. Those were just a few names off the top of my head of 30yr old wingers getting more than they deserved in recent years. Oshie was a similar case. Contract doesn't look as bad, but still big.

[ericdaoust]

The more time goes on the more I'm realizing many (maybe most) GMs aren't that good at being GM. Lots of decisions are made that are obviously shortsighted when they happen and the teams end up in bad places as a result. Regarding being reckless vs showing restraint on July 1st I think it's mostly cyclical. We have the Lucic/Okposo/etc examples so everyone is saying be careful in free agency. Then we have a big jump in cap coming up and teams will be reckless again.

It's the same with coaches managing games for their starting goalie. Every year we get tons of coaches saying they want to keep their starter under 60 GP. Then the games happen and almost half the teams have their goalie at 60+ GP, with a few others that would be there if not for injury. The NHL is mostly run on short-term thinking. The grand plans and visions we keep hearing about are mostly hot air.

I think Perron has no problem getting 5x5.

[Moses]

I think Perron has no problem getting 5x5.

Perron has played for 6 NHL teams in the last 6 years, turns 30 this month and just had a career season in a contract year. If a GM gives Perron $5M x 5 yr that GM should be marched in the corporate boardroom and be ceremoniously fired then escorted from the building by security. HAHAHA

This is just my opinion.

[stevegamer]

Perron has played for 6 NHL teams in the last 6 years, turns 30 this month and just had a career season in a contract year. If a GM gives Perron $5M x 5 yr that GM should be marched in the corporate boardroom and be ceremoniously fired then escorted from the building by security. HAHAHA

This is just my opinion.

Basically this, although I hate the "escorted out by security" thing for people who aren't actually causing issues. We had layoffs, and they hired a private security firm to escort out something like 40% of the building. Then they need to rehire for about half those spots, as the takeover people making cuts in consolidation had no clue what they were doing - a couple of them got fired, and one was grousing about being escorted out by security as they were leaving. Hypocrisy can be funny.

[ericdaoust]

Perron has played for 6 NHL teams in the last 6 years, turns 30 this month and just had a career season in a contract year. If a GM gives Perron $5M x 5 yr that GM should be marched in the corporate boardroom and be ceremoniously fired then escorted from the building by security. HAHAHA

This is just my opinion.

History says Perron will do just fine on July 1st. Like I said that's not the day where GMs are known for making intelligent decisions.

[Pengwin7]

I agree with Eric, I think Perron gets paid.

I really dislike Perron - think of him as a bit of a slacker who can play well when he's motivated.
We got a great season out of him because he's been playing for that last big income of his lifetime.

When Free Agency comes though, GMs are looking at 25-30 forwards and whoever is in that top 10... they get money.
GMs are told/expected to go out and bring in somebody that could improve the club.
If they don't do this... it looks like they are doing nothing.
Better, for a GM, to take a risk and make a mistake... then to do nothing.

Matt Beleskey, David Clarkson, Nathan Horton, Clarke MacArthur, Johan Franzen... man, the list is long.
(btw, several of these guys injured, but hey aren't fast enough for current NHL either way)

Perron IS actually quick enough (when he tries) to keep up with the younger NHL pace.
And with 31 GMs... somebody will consider him a top 10 forward UFA - which is enough to get him paid.

I'll say 5yr x $5.8m for Perron.

Theodore, for me, as done enough down the stretch to get paid as well.
I think he'll get close to 6yr x $5m; Theodore.


I do think the NHL is almost done with guys like Roussel: 1yr x $2.5m "test you out" contract.

[lucafen4]

I'll take a stab at this.

David Perron $4.00M x 2yr - I think he stays in Vegas but is only offered a two-year deal. The "David Perron 2016" contract.
Shea Theodore $4.25M x 8yr - GMGM makes a gamble and signs him long term. The "Roman Josi 2013" contract.
Antoine Roussel $2.65M x 3yr - A GM who thinks their team needs team more toughness and grit will add the Frenchman. The "Derek Dorsett 2015" contract.

I think Perron gets more elsewhere, likely a longer deal (he should stay and for cheaper since year 1 has really worked well for him)
Agree Shea gets a long term deal - although I'd say 5 - 5.5m for 6-8yrs (Morgan Rielly esque)
Roussell - I can see him getting even a bit more 3 - 3.5m per