Drouin vs. Guentzel - who you got?

[RizzeeDizzee]

Sorry about no Cage Match last week. Real life - i.e., my day job - interfered. Hopefully that won't happen again soon. But to make up for the two week gap I figured on a match that's both topical (Guentzel being on fire in the playoffs) and notable (Drouin playing for the high-profile Habs).

Here's a link to the column: https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home...jake-guentzel/. Give it a read and share your thoughts. Do you think the numbers paint a fair picture of both players, and support the conclusions I drew? Can Guentzel find a way to produce again in the regular season like he does in the playoffs, despite not getting all-important PP1 time? Do things look as bleak for Drouin, or are the numbers not telling the real/whole story?

Let's hear your views, particularly if you own either player.

[lucafen4]

this article pretty much confirms my gut feeling on Drouin since the trade to Mtl. Even in TB I steered clear of him. Hornqvist will get hurt next year and Guentzel will again see spot time on PP1

[GretzkysMullet]

Guentzel's production in the playoffs is almost entirely 5 on 5, his PP time is virtually the same. The difference is he is seeing an extra minute of ice time, and it's all with Crosby. This wasn't the case consistently during the past season, which had him playing on the third line for stretches. A full season with Crosby at 5 on 5 and PP2 with spot duty on PP1 when injuries occur (as you and others have mentioned) should see Guentzel above 60 next season IMO.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Guentzel's production in the playoffs is almost entirely 5 on 5, his PP time is virtually the same. The difference is he is seeing an extra minute of ice time, and it's all with Crosby. This wasn't the case consistently during the past season, which had him playing on the third line for stretches. A full season with Crosby at 5 on 5 and PP2 with spot duty on PP1 when injuries occur (as you and others have mentioned) should see Guentzel above 60 next season IMO.

What you say makes sense, except when looking at past results. I suppose you can make the argument that Guentzel is a step above those who've previously flanked Crosby and not been on PP1, but this is one case where I think it's best to tread lightly.

As for Drouin, all I can say is I apologize to any of his owners who may have vomited on their keyboards upon reading the column.

[stevegamer]

I own Guentzel and have been dangled Drouin in trade for a few years (he wanted Gostisbehere) as he fit the Tampa line on my team. Drouin in Montreal with no real center doesn't interest me much.

And, no, I didn't trade Gostisbehere for Drouin.

[MZac]

It was Guentzel at the beginning of the season for me, which was kind of dissapointing, but it's still Guentzel now.

[DusterDave]

I don't own either player on any of my teams but I would draft Guentzel before I'd take Drouin.

[SeaDawg]

There is no doubt that both Guentzel and Crosby have seriously stepped up their games in the playoffs. Watching Crosby especially, I get the feeling that (consciously or not) he was saving himself for the playoffs. It isn't that Crosby didn't have a good regular season, but 17 points in 9 games is amazing production, and not really sustainable over an entire 82 game season.

I guess my point is just that Crosby's play in these playoffs is dragging Guentzel's production up. However, once Crosby goes back to "only" a point-per-game pace instead of the two-points-per-game pace he is on now, Guentzel's production will in turn drop considerably.

[RizzeeDizzee]

There is no doubt that both Guentzel and Crosby have seriously stepped up their games in the playoffs. Watching Crosby especially, I get the feeling that (consciously or not) he was saving himself for the playoffs. It isn't that Crosby didn't have a good regular season, but 17 points in 9 games is amazing production, and not really sustainable over an entire 82 game season.

I guess my point is just that Crosby's play in these playoffs is dragging Guentzel's production up. However, once Crosby goes back to "only" a point-per-game pace instead of the two-points-per-game pace he is on now, Guentzel's production will in turn drop considerably.

You may be onto something here. Between Crosby being in beast mode and Malkin often taking time off before the NHL playoffs due to injury, the Pens could well be treating the regular season as sort of a prolonged version of Spring Training. If so, that might indeed mean that Guentzel's production would suffer once 2018-19 rolls around, especially due to being relegated to the wasteland of PP2.

[SeaDawg]

Beast-mode is a good way to put it. Crosby has been incredible these playoffs, and his play has been infectious. Crosby always plays with passion and energy, but he really has stepped it up in these playoffs. I don't want to take anything away from Guentzel, but he really has been the beneficiary of some unreal plays by Crosby. I mean, even the empty net goal Guentzel scored last night was all about Crosby knocking the puck out of the air, using his strong edge work to cut back the other way (twisting Ovechkin into a pretzel), and then sending the pass over to a wide open Guentzel. Guentzel was also the beneficiary of a nice passing play between Crosby and Simon on the first goal. Again, not taking anything away from Guentzel who has shown a real knack for getting to the open areas of the ice and a nice finishing touch, but many of his goals have resulted from amazing plays by Crosby. Not to mention that Crosby himself has scored some highlight goals (in the previous series), knocking pucks out of the air, etc. that have resulted in Guentzel being "gifted" some points.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Beast-mode is a good way to put it. Crosby has been incredible these playoffs, and his play has been infectious. Crosby always plays with passion and energy, but he really has stepped it up in these playoffs. I don't want to take anything away from Guentzel, but he really has been the beneficiary of some unreal plays by Crosby. I mean, even the empty net goal Guentzel scored last night was all about Crosby knocking the puck out of the air, using his strong edge work to cut back the other way (twisting Ovechkin into a pretzel), and then sending the pass over to a wide open Guentzel. Guentzel was also the beneficiary of a nice passing play between Crosby and Simon on the first goal. Again, not taking anything away from Guentzel who has shown a real knack for getting to the open areas of the ice and a nice finishing touch, but many of his goals have resulted from amazing plays by Crosby. Not to mention that Crosby himself has scored some highlight goals (in the previous series), knocking pucks out of the air, etc. that have resulted in Guentzel being "gifted" some points.

Not to derail, but I think Crosby realizes that McDavid will put up better numbers than he did, so Crosby wants to be the Sakic/Yzerman of his era - great player.....plus several Cups. And if I'm the Pittsburgh brass, I sure as heck take Crosby playing at 80% effort level in the regular season and putting up 80-90 points if it means he's fresh for the playoffs. Same with Malkin getting hurt and missing the last 10-15 games of the season and then somehow coming back in perfect shape for the playoffs - small price to pay if they can win in all each year, or be in serious contention to do so.