Am I crazy to offer Pasta in a deal for Dhalin?

[stevegamer]

I know. I know. Pasta is a beast. I have a chance to get Dhalin though in a deal if he is involved. I am a huge fan of Pasta but Dhalin is a generational player and from watching him live and all of his highlights, for a 17 year-old he is special. I feel like Pasta will be a star in this league but Dhalin will be a superstar.

As per FHG, Pasta was ranked 55th this year, tied with Victor Arvidsson, to give you an idea of his value. There were no RWs in the top 10 but 3 were Dmen, to give you an idea of the value of Dmen.

Should I just stick with Pasta and enjoy his production or should I take a chance and try to land Dhalin?

Thanks in advance for any advice. Will rep.

My first and second reactions are "Yes, you're crazy." To be fair, I will try and get some more relevant info, since you have positional requirements.

1. Where did Pastrnak end up among RW?
2. How many defenders ranked higher than him?
3. Why do you think Pastrnak is NOT a star right now?
4. Is your league category wins or points for each stat?

My take is simply that you are giving up a star for a chance at a star.

[Jouko-Pouko]

I have a follow up question to my last post...where was Ristolainen ranked compared to Pastrnak? Can we all agree that Dahlin will probably be ranked higher than Risto next year? If so, I'd be curious to know where this particular league had Risto ranked.

I may be wrong, but seems like dmen have massive value in this league, and getting your hands on a future stud dman like Dahlin is fantasy gold.

Ristolainen had 41 points in 73 games. That would be a huge season from an 18-year-old defenseman. And you think Dahlin will probably do better than that? Ekblad had a monster rookie season, and he only had 39 points in 81 games. Ekblad was very mature physically as a young kid, Dahlin is pretty much the opposite of that.

[SeaDawg]

Ristolainen had 41 points in 73 games. That would be a huge season from an 18-year-old defenseman. And you think Dahlin will probably do better than that? Ekblad had a monster rookie season, and he only had 39 points in 81 games. Ekblad was very mature physically as a young kid, Dahlin is pretty much the opposite of that.

It wouldn't shock me if Dahlin scored more than 41 pts in his rookie season. I also confidently feel that Dahlin is already a better defenseman than Ristolainen in all facets of the game. Risto was -25 and I'd be shocked if Dahlin doesn't have a much better plus/minus next year. I think Dahlin could at least match, if not eclipse most of Ristolainen's other stats next year (PIMs, SOGs, etc.).

Truthfully, as I've mentioned in previous posts, I don't know exactly how this league ranks/values players so I can't be certain that Dahlin will have more value than Ristolainen next year, but I think there is a good chance he does. Furthermore, even if Dahlin does, I have no idea where Ristolainen was ranked last year compared to Pastrnak. More details are clearly needed for me to make a final recommendation to the OP. My point is merely that if Arvidsson had equal value to Pastrnak in this league, then it is entirely possible that we are underestimating Dahlin's value in this particular league because (in theory at least) I would trade Arvidsson in a heartbeat in almost any conceivable league to get Dahlin (and in this league Arvidsson=Pastrnak).

[Jouko-Pouko]

It wouldn't shock me if Dahlin scored more than 41 pts in his rookie season. I also confidently feel that Dahlin is already a better defenseman than Ristolainen in all facets of the game. Risto was -25 and I'd be shocked if Dahlin doesn't have a much better plus/minus next year. I think Dahlin could at least match, if not eclipse most of Ristolainen's other stats next year (PIMs, SOGs, etc.).

Truthfully, as I've mentioned in previous posts, I don't know exactly how this league ranks/values players so I can't be certain that Dahlin will have more value than Ristolainen next year, but I think there is a good chance he does. Furthermore, even if Dahlin does, I have no idea where Ristolainen was ranked last year compared to Pastrnak. More details are clearly needed for me to make a final recommendation to the OP. My point is merely that if Arvidsson had equal value to Pastrnak in this league, then it is entirely possible that we are underestimating Dahlin's value in this particular league because (in theory at least) I would trade Arvidsson in a heartbeat in almost any conceivable league to get Dahlin (and in this league Arvidsson=Pastrnak).

I don't know how many games of Dahlin you watched but he had 20 points, +4, 84 SOG, 20 PIM, 30 hits and 36 blocks in 41 games. The SHL is a couple of tiers below the NHL for sure. I watched about 20 games of him in the SHL and World Juniors on top of that, and I don't see how you come to a conclusion that Dahlin's rookie season will be better than what Ristolainen is already doing - or that Dahlin would be better than Ristolainen in any facet of the game at this point. Ristolainen's plus-minus was bad because he played huge minutes (too much) on a terrible team.

[lucafen4]

Hedman didn't put up numbers until his 6th season - toiled in the 20-27pt range until then. Erik Karlsson went 26-45-78. It took him 3 years. Those are two physically comparable players to Dahlin, tall, slender, needing maturity. On the same line with J.P. Ekblad put up 39, Doughty who was also thought to be physically mature put up 26 in his 1st year - 59, second season. Phaneuf has 2 extra years post draft before putting up 49. Werenski did put up 47 - BUT, that was draft year +1. There was even a multi-year wait on Lidstrom before he made his debut and kicked in 60 (different era) - but you get the point.

There's always the chance Dahlin is the exception, but expecting 40+pts on Buffalo next year is, I think setting yourself up for disappointment. Buffalo should take the Philly - Ghost-type approach, feed him the PP and give him protected minutes 5x5. It would not shock me to see him bound above 50pts in year 2, but temper year 1 as an 18yr old

[Jouko-Pouko]

Hedman didn't put up numbers until his 6th season - toiled in the 20-27pt range until then. Erik Karlsson went 26-45-78. It took him 3 years. Those are two physically comparable players to Dahlin, tall, slender, needing maturity. On the same line with J.P. Ekblad put up 39, Doughty who was also thought to be physically mature put up 26 in his 1st year - 59, second season. Phaneuf has 2 extra years post draft before putting up 49. Werenski did put up 47 - BUT, that was draft year +1. There was even a multi-year wait on Lidstrom before he made his debut and kicked in 60 (different era) - but you get the point.

There's always the chance Dahlin is the exception, but expecting 40+pts on Buffalo next year is, I think setting yourself up for disappointment. Buffalo should take the Philly - Ghost-type approach, feed him the PP and give him protected minutes 5x5. It would not shock me to see him bound above 50pts in year 2, but temper year 1 as an 18yr old

Also good to remember that Dahlin was a PP2 player in the SHL, so expecting him to jump straight to PP1 in the NHL might be too much to ask as well.

[lucafen4]

Also good to remember that Dahlin was a PP2 player in the SHL, so expecting him to jump straight to PP1 in the NHL might be too much to ask as well.

totally, especially with the NHL's desire to deploy 4-1 and Risto already in that spot. Especially to start the season. By Jan, they could easily switch to a 3-2 and put him up there to try it out. It all leads to tempered expectations on his 1st year production

[SeaDawg]

The NHL is a different league than it was when Karlsson, Hedman, and Ekblad entered it. There is a place in the league for players like Dahlin to come in and be productive right away. If Gostisbehere, Klingberg, and Werenski can do it, why can't Dahlin (who is even better than them).

[ericdaoust]

Pastrnak >>> Dahlin

And that's not a knock against Dahlin

[SeaDawg]

Pastrnak >>> Dahlin

And that's not a knock against Dahlin

Is Arvidsson >>> Dahlin as well?

Cause Arvidsson = Pastrnak in this league.

[lucafen4]

The NHL is a different league than it was when Karlsson, Hedman, and Ekblad entered it. There is a place in the league for players like Dahlin to come in and be productive right away. If Gostisbehere, Klingberg, and Werenski can do it, why can't Dahlin (who is even better than them).

it's because all of them had at least 1+ year after their draft year before transitioning into the NHL. Werenski went to the NCAA, Klingberg & Ghost were both in their 20's

[SeaDawg]

it's because all of them had at least 1+ year after their draft year before transitioning into the NHL. Werenski went to the NCAA, Klingberg & Ghost were both in their 20's

true, but none of them were as highly-touted as Dahlin, nor did they have Dahlin's raw potential. Also, Dahlin has been playing in the SHL, which one could argue better prepares him for the NHL.

Anyway, this is all speculation...no one knows exactly how Dahlin will transition to the NHL, but it is my opinion that I think he will outperform Ristolainen out of the gate. I might be wrong, but nothing I can say is going to get you to change your mind, and vice versa. One of us will be wrong. Simple as that. No biggie either way.

Again, the OP wanted to know if it made sense to trade Pastrnak for Dahlin, and I merely wanted to know how Ristolainen ranked compared to Pastrnak this past season because I think Dahlin will outproduce Risto next year. My question/logic is completely moot if Risto did not have much value in this league, even *if* I am correct in thinking that Dahlin outproduces him next year.

It would have been a more productive and useful debate if the OP had not disappeared and been able to provide us with more details about how the league works, and in particular the ranking of players. I still can't quite understand how Pastrnak was ranked 55th in this league, tied with Arvidsson. I'd really like to know more about dmen valuations in this league. Oh well.

[fungchen3]

Dahlin is going to be a different animal. He is in the perfect situation on a young, up-and-coming Swords squad, with players like Eichel, Mittelstadt and Nylander who can match his creativity. He also has a monster like Ristolainen to feed one-timers to.

Here's what you'll see from Dahlin:

2018-19: 10g/32a/42pts
2019-20: 11g/35a/46pts
2020-21: 17g/40a/57pts
2021-22 (and on): average of 17g/45a/62pts (some years 54, a couple that are 68-70)

And his career year will be something like: 22g/53a/75pts

I don't expect him to hit Karlsson / Burns numbers, but he'll reach Hedman. And he'll be in the Subban, Carlson, Josi, Klingberg, Gostisbehere, rat race every year by 2020-21.

He will not take as long as Hedman to "arrive" offensively. His real breakout will come year 3 - not 4, 5 or 6.

As for Pastrnak, I think we're looking at a superstar who has potential to be the next "Kucherov" in terms of breaking out into the elite, 100 point flirters.
Over the next 5 years, I see him between 84-94 points, with no less than 80 and a reasonable ceiling of 98-100.

Either way, you're golden. There is risk involved, but there's zero doubt in my mind that Dahlin will be a stud. The problem is, Pastrnak is already stud and will follow the Kucherov path soon.

[Moses]

It would have been a more productive and useful debate if the OP had not disappeared and been able to provide us with more details about how the league works, and in particular the ranking of players. I still can't quite understand how Pastrnak was ranked 55th in this league, tied with Arvidsson. I'd really like to know more about dmen valuations in this league. Oh well.

The OP has been a member since 2008 (just like you SeaDawg) but only has 211 posts to your 7,622. I don't think they have disappeared, they are just pacing themselves. The OP is only 29 hours old.

Their sig has this info.

H2H, 12 Teams, Full Keeper
Skaters: G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG, FW, HIT
Goalies: GS, W, L, GAA, SA, SV, SV%, SHO
(Looks like 18 players per team a farm)


Pasternak's "value" takes a hit as he had zero SHP and won only 5 faceoffs. He had 55 hits last season and was +10.

Therefore: 2/10 CATS Pasternak did not factor in (SHP, FW) and another 2/10 CATS he was just OK (HITS, +/-).

In my main H2H league with similar-ish CATS (G, A, +/-, PIM, SOG, PPP, SHP, Hit, Blk, FO%, TOI/G) Pasternak was the 60th ranked forward and Arvidsson was 69th. This is how Pasternak ends up ranked 55th in the OP's league.

As far as Dmen go in a set-up like mine, Hedman was the top-ranked player and Subban was 4th. The next highest ranked D was Matt Dumba who was helped along by going 2/2 in the face-off dot (100% - best face-off man in the league!) and dropping in a SHP.

For comparison's sake, ranked 56-60th overall was cluster were Carlson, Rantanen, Gostisbehere, Laine, Pasternak.

Hope this helps a bit in understanding how Pasternak was ranked 55th in the OP's set-up and how scoring defensemen compare against scoring forwards.

[Jouko-Pouko]

Dahlin is going to be a different animal. He is in the perfect situation on a young, up-and-coming Swords squad, with players like Eichel, Mittelstadt and Nylander who can match his creativity. He also has a monster like Ristolainen to feed one-timers to.

Here's what you'll see from Dahlin:

2018-19: 10g/32a/42pts
2019-20: 11g/35a/46pts
2020-21: 17g/40a/57pts
2021-22 (and on): average of 17g/45a/62pts (some years 54, a couple that are 68-70)

And his career year will be something like: 22g/53a/75pts

I don't expect him to hit Karlsson / Burns numbers, but he'll reach Hedman. And he'll be in the Subban, Carlson, Josi, Klingberg, Gostisbehere, rat race every year by 2020-21.

He will not take as long as Hedman to "arrive" offensively. His real breakout will come year 3 - not 4, 5 or 6.

As for Pastrnak, I think we're looking at a superstar who has potential to be the next "Kucherov" in terms of breaking out into the elite, 100 point flirters.
Over the next 5 years, I see him between 84-94 points, with no less than 80 and a reasonable ceiling of 98-100.

Either way, you're golden. There is risk involved, but there's zero doubt in my mind that Dahlin will be a stud. The problem is, Pastrnak is already stud and will follow the Kucherov path soon.

I'm fine with that projection although I might slice a couple of points from him in his rookie season. But I don't really see Nylander being a factor on that team in any way... Hopefully he proves me wrong, though.

Most likely Pastrnak will be the better player for 2-3 years. No matter what the scoring system is - Dahlin doesn't provide a ton of peripheral stats, so there's no advantage coming from there either. Dahlin could be the better player in 3-4 years depending on the scoring system but is the difference going to be big enough to wait that long?