2018 mock drafts

[Pengwin7]

I foresee forwards going 2-5, with Arizona possibly moving down. More on that in a bit.
It seems most scouts are pushing Wahlstrom up with Tkachuk... and then there appears to be a forward-talent gap to Farabee/Veleno.

1. (BUF) Dahlin
2. (CAR) Zadina, yes - I think Carolina is going to do this. I think 2/3 are comparable and that Zadina is a better fit for the Canes.
3. (MON) Svechnikov. I think MON is fine with whoever here.
...
4. (OTT) Tkachuk. I'm not sure I love his game in the new, faster NHL... but OTT needs to look.... to feel... to try something different. Another D just doesn't seem like the fix, even with possible pending Karlsson departure.
5. (PHI or other) - Wahlstrom, but Arizona will trade down.
...
Since arriving in Arizona, Chayka has LOVED acquiring & moving D & G. Nobody is drafting a G this high, but I think Chayka (as a brilliant young mind) sees the merit in the NFL-Patriot way, and will trade down. Now WHO is looking to trade up... I could actually see the Flyers doing it. Hextall traded up in 2015 (#24.Konecny, for 29 & 61), down in 2016 (#22.Rubtsov & 36, for 18 & 79), and traded "up" in 2017 (#29.Frost & 2018-14, for Schenn)... that's a nice trend, with the two trade-UPs showing better future than the trade-DOWN. . I think Hextall is stocked with enough prospects. What he needs going forward is ONE more dynamite forward for his top 9F. He's got a future G1 (Hart), his top 4D (Ghost, Provorov, Myers, Sanheim... with Morin/Hagg to fill out future 3rd pair), he's got about 7-8 really solid F incl Giroux, Voracek, Couturier, Konecny, Patrick, Lindblom, Frost... Simmonds IDK what his future with PHI is, but I think Wade Allison is a bonafide 3rd line player this year or next. Is the #5 worth sending both the #14 & #19... and maybe Arizona asks for a player too, I can really see this happening as Arizona needs 2nd/3rd line scoring depth more than a single Tkachuk or Wahlstrom. There's a lot of really solid players in the teen picks this year - including Kotkaniemi, Kupari, and Kravtsov.
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From here, I think teams hold tight and run five straight D (a bit similar to the 2, 4-10 D run in the 2012 NHL draft):
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6. (DET) Quinn Hughes. Detroit has to have big picture thinking. They have NOBODY to run their powerplay and carry the puck up ice. Hughes fits perfect for the Wings... and if they suck enough, they are in the Jack Hughes running. Imagine BOTH Hughes on the Wings... that's tickets sold and games won.
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7. (VAN) Adam Boqvist. I think he's a nice fit here, especially as D1 right-side pairing to Juolevi (LH).
8. (CHI) Evan Bouchard. They need to restock their D badly.
9. (NYR) Noah Dobson. Ditto.
10. (EDM) Ty Smith.

That's my current 10. Arizona is interesting. They could also hold at #5 and draft a D... but I think they get a huge return IF Tkachuk or Wahlstrom go at #4 and only ONE is left... Chayka's phone will ring and he'll have a "value chart" to know how he wants to trade down.

[fungchen3]

5. (PHI or other) - Wahlstrom, but Arizona will trade down.
...
Since arriving in Arizona, Chayka has LOVED acquiring & moving D & G. Nobody is drafting a G this high, but I think Chayka (as a brilliant young mind) sees the merit in the NFL-Patriot way, and will trade down. Now WHO is looking to trade up... I could actually see the Flyers doing it. Hextall traded up in 2015 (#24.Konecny, for 29 & 61), down in 2016 (#22.Rubtsov & 36, for 18 & 79), and traded "up" in 2017 (#29.Frost & 2018-14, for Schenn)... that's a nice trend, with the two trade-UPs showing better future than the trade-DOWN. . I think Hextall is stocked with enough prospects. What he needs going forward is ONE more dynamite forward for his top 9F. He's got a future G1 (Hart), his top 4D (Ghost, Provorov, Myers, Sanheim... with Morin/Hagg to fill out future 3rd pair), he's got about 7-8 really solid F incl Giroux, Voracek, Couturier, Konecny, Patrick, Lindblom, Frost... Simmonds IDK what his future with PHI is, but I think Wade Allison is a bonafide 3rd line player this year or next. Is the #5 worth sending both the #14 & #19... and maybe Arizona asks for a player too, I can really see this happening as Arizona needs 2nd/3rd line scoring depth more than a single Tkachuk or Wahlstrom. There's a lot of really solid players in the teen picks this year - including Kotkaniemi, Kupari, and Kravtsov.

I like your style P7. I also think Hextall has the stones to trade up, unless he loves two players he thinks he can get at 14+19, a la Richards and Carter draft.

[Jouko-Pouko]

It seems most scouts are pushing Wahlstrom up with Tkachuk... and then there appears to be a forward-talent gap to Farabee/Veleno.

I think you forgot Kotkaniemi who slots in between the two groups you mentioned.

[Daydream Nation]

I think you forgot Kotkaniemi who slots in between the two groups you mentioned.

I have also seen multiple rankings have Farabee in front of Kotkaniemi.

[Jouko-Pouko]

I have also seen multiple rankings have Farabee in front of Kotkaniemi.

I think most rankings after the U18s have Kotkaniemi ahead. Kotkaniemi has been rising and is now a potential top 10 pick whereas Farabee seems to be in that #11 to #14 range.

[fungchen3]

I think most rankings after the U18s have Kotkaniemi ahead. Kotkaniemi has been rising and is now a potential top 10 pick whereas Farabee seems to be in that #11 to #14 range.

Kotkaniemi is definitely rising, at least based on all the chatter. I've heard plenty of talk from Montreal radio where callers are really liking him - even to the point where some are suggesting Bergevin should take him at 3. While I don't see that happening, I wouldn't be surprised to see him go ahead of his ranking. Scheifele and Kopitar were both considered "reaches" on draft day, so if a team loves him, I could see them trading up to get him.

[lucafen4]

gone are the days of Finnish prospects having low offensive ceilings.... there was a decade or so where it seemed no Finnish player could crack 60pts, now they're becoming an offensive force.

[Jouko-Pouko]

gone are the days of Finnish prospects having low offensive ceilings.... there was a decade or so where it seemed no Finnish player could crack 60pts, now they're becoming an offensive force.

There was a big change in prospect development style in Finland. You're absolutely right - for about 10 years, Finland mostly just produced depth players. But the last few years, Finland has been producing a lot of offensive talent which has been seen at WJCs and U18s lately as well.

Finland used to force this "everyone plays, everyone is equal" garbage which meant they all became equally bad. Luckily they realized that doesn't work and started focusing more on individual development and focus more on top players who have a realistic chance of becoming NHL players. Sweden did something similar a few years before Finland did.

[lucafen4]

There was a big change in prospect development style in Finland. You're absolutely right - for about 10 years, Finland mostly just produced depth players. But the last few years, Finland has been producing a lot of offensive talent which has been seen at WJCs and U18s lately as well.

Finland used to force this "everyone plays, everyone is equal" garbage which meant they all became equally bad. Luckily they realized that doesn't work and started focusing more on individual development and focus more on top players who have a realistic chance of becoming NHL players. Sweden did something similar a few years before Finland did.

I target young Fins in trades because not everyone's mindset has caught up with the reality of that philosophy change. That's coming to an end very quickly however. It's similar to Russia never being able to produce elite level Dmen... that has started to change in the past few years, but before Sergachev & Provorov, we're going back to Gonchar to find a top 2Dman

[Jouko-Pouko]

I target young Fins in trades because not everyone's mindset has caught up with the reality of that philosophy change. That's coming to an end very quickly however. It's similar to Russia never being able to produce elite level Dmen... that has started to change in the past few years, but before Sergachev & Provorov, we're going back to Gonchar to find a top 2Dman

Finland had a similar issue with defensemen. I think we went from Timonen to Vatanen and there's like 10 years between the two. EDIT: And not just top 2, not sure Finland produced a true top 6 defenseman within that time period...

[Pengwin7]

I like your style P7. I also think Hextall has the stones to trade up, unless he loves two players he thinks he can get at 14+19, a la Richards and Carter draft.

I'm sort of feeling like there are C2-types and D2/D3 types available at 14 & 19.
People like to talk about drafting BPA... and that's great if you don't have other options... but I think C1/C2 and D1-D4 are Flyer strengths... so I think they may look to trade out of that area to somebody who values it.
If they can't trade up, I'd even be on boarding with trading back a year, say for two 1sts in 2019 or 2020.

A little bit of draft pick staggering can also be good so that you have new kids on affordable ELCs to patch in when all their kids are looking for big contracts.

If Arizona does stay at #5... I'll be interested to see Chayka make his pick of the very good D vs. Wahlstrom.

@JP: I didn't know Kotkaniemi was trending up. Is he a consensus top 10 pick now? 11-13 range?

[Jouko-Pouko]

@JP: I didn't know Kotkaniemi was trending up. Is he a consensus top 10 pick now? 11-13 range?

Not a consensus top 10 but a potential top 10 pick. Depends on what happens with all the defensemen who are currently in top 10. But I do think he's the top forward behind the top four.

Kotkaniemi, though he was just one spot below Hughes, didn?t receive anywhere close to the same support.

Kotkaniemi is closer to being an interchangeable part with the next three prospects, ranked Nos. 11 through 13. That group, in order, includes Drummondville Voltigeurs centre Joe Veleno, Soo Greyhound centre Barrett Hayton and Spokane Chiefs defenceman Ty Smith.

From https://www.tsn.ca/the-big-four-soli...king-1.1066345

EDIT: Forgot to say that I believe Bob's survey was done before the U18s and Kotkaniemi really solidified his spot in that tournament. I think there's a consensus top 9 (Dahlin, Svechnikov, Zadina, Tkachuk, Bouchard, Hughes, Boqvist, Dobson, Wahlstrom), and Kotkaniemi is a strong option to join them for top 10 (although team needs could come into play there).

[lucafen4]

I'm sort of feeling like there are C2-types and D2/D3 types available at 14 & 19.
People like to talk about drafting BPA... and that's great if you don't have other options... but I think C1/C2 and D1-D4 are Flyer strengths... so I think they may look to trade out of that area to somebody who values it.
If they can't trade up, I'd even be on boarding with trading back a year, say for two 1sts in 2019 or 2020.

A little bit of draft pick staggering can also be good so that you have new kids on affordable ELCs to patch in when all their kids are looking for big contracts.

If Arizona does stay at #5... I'll be interested to see Chayka make his pick of the very good D vs. Wahlstrom.

@JP: I didn't know Kotkaniemi was trending up. Is he a consensus top 10 pick now? 11-13 range?

Hextall meet Bergevin.

[Bazz]

2. (CAR) Zadina, yes - I think Carolina is going to do this. I think 2/3 are comparable and that Zadina is a better fit for the Canes.

That's some stones, I personally want to see Aho and Svechnikov play together. I'd like to see Kotkaniemi go to Vancouver (Horvat, Dahlen, Kotkaniemi) could provide a solid decade down the middle. They can wait until round two to draft a defenceman since this is a deep draft for them, or so it seems.

[fungchen3]

That's some stones, I personally want to see Aho and Svechnikov play together. I'd like to see Kotkaniemi go to Vancouver (Horvat, Dahlen, Kotkaniemi) could provide a solid decade down the middle. They can wait until round two to draft a defenceman since this is a deep draft for them, or so it seems.

Well I'll tell ya, if the Canes are like Scotty Bowman and believe each scoring line should feature a great duo plus a support player, then drafting Zadina makes some sense. Aho and Teravainen have great chemistry, which has been carried over to the Worlds, and Necas and Zadina were incredible together at the WJC. This would give the Canes the foundation of 2 scoring lines with other talent like Staal, Skinner, Williams, Lindholm and Zykov to round out the forwards.