Who to Keep? Need opinions!

[ivegottheblues]

Hello everyone.

Looking for a little input on how to approach next year. I ended a terrible 8th this year, as my weak draft picks didnt pan out as expected.

See team in Signature.

We have some odd keeper rules in this league.

1. CANNOT keep first two drafts picks, so that removes Scheifele and Murray as options.
2. Keep 1 Forward 1 Defense 1 Goalie - redraft rest of team
3. Any player we keep, we forfeit the draft pick we drafted that player. Example- I drafted Anderson in the 7th, will lose my 7th round pick next year for keeping him.
4. I ended up in 8th place this season, will get 4th pick in 1st round next season.
5. Not exactly sure how we're going to deal with waiver pickups (i dont think our commish even knows and i'm thinking he's just making these rules up as we go). If i had to guess, whatever player you dropped to pickup someone from FA or W, you lose that draft pick.


It's obvious who i should keep for my goalie. Freddie is a steal for a 7th round pick, but that's where my clarity gets deluded. I realize this is the forwards forum, so i will only focus on them.

Marchessault (Waiver), Granlund (4th rd pick), Barzal(waiver), and Couturier(waiver) all seem appealing.

March - Is his pace sustainable for next season? If so would probably be my best bet, as i acquired him via waivers.

Granlund- The most appealing option in my opinion. I see him being consistent for years to come, but is it worth sacrificing the fresh 4th round pick?

Barzal- Obvious, future superstar. BUT can i hold off and get him anyways without keeping.

Couturier- I'm only entertaining this one because of the insane season he's having now. Is this trend going to continue? Another player i could probably get back even without keeping.


As always,

Thank you for any/all input.

[The Bottlenecker]

Tough choices, but Granlund as a 4th round pick is pretty good too. Maybe not as great a steal as Andersen at 7th, but not bad at all.

He has had two very good seasons in a row now, and it only stands to reason that he will continue to have more. Barzal might suffer the sophomore jinx, while I think Marchessault and the Knights are all overachieving a bit. Couturier is having a great season, but I'm not sure if it is sustainable.

[MZac]

*double post - can delete*

[MZac]

Depending on how waiver pick ups work I'm leaning towards barzel. Need to know how it works before you can decide here, it very well may be giving up your last draft pick (I've seen this in similar leagues before)

For your D either Macavoy or Provorov but would need to know rounds drafted before picking.

[Martin5150]

Barzal and Provorov

[stevegamer]

Feel free to discuss whole team here, it even says this is the default for combined forward & defense issues in the forum description.

Things that would help to know:

1. When you picked these players. this is huge because we only know about Granlund, and I doubt he'd be my keep of those options, due to draft pick cost.
2. How waiver pickups work for this (league needs to clarify)

Barring something really weird with picks used and waiver costs, I want Provorov and one of Barzal/Marchessault.

[ivegottheblues]

Thank you for all the responses!

I inquired to our commish about next years picks for keeping the guys off FA and W. Will advise the second he figures that out! For now lets assume if I keep one of my FA or W pickups that i will be sacrificing my last round pick.

@stevegamer & anyone else who'd like the info, here's the info on draft order;

M.Barzal (FA), M. Scheifele (2nd), Couturier (FA)

M.Pacioretty (3rd) OUCH!! /J. Guentzel (6th) /M. Perreault(FA) / J Marchessault (FA)

R. Hartman (FA) / T. Wilson(FA)

C. Atkinson (5th) OUCH!! / M. Granlund (4rd)

I. Provorov (FA) /C. McAvoy (FA) / J. Gardiner(9th)

F. Anderson(7th)/ M Murray (1st) OUCH! / P Mrazek (FA)

As you can probably tell my draft wasn't a very strong one with year as most of my team I pieced together from the FA,W's. In my defense, our commissioner didn't tell us the rules prior to the draft (which is total BS) so i drafted with the assumption that i would be keeping the large majority of my team, including 1st and 2nd round picks. I'd hoped to keep Scheifele and had built for the future. (Don't really care about this season too much, I won our 1 yr league last year, this is our first year for keep and I landed a crap pick for the draft this season so I went into it thinking about the future).

Based on the input from you guys I've scratched Couturier from the possibles. Maybe i can nab him later in the draft if i'm in need of another center but he worries me as this year is his breakout. Philly is kind of stacked as a team though.

Granlund is the definitely the player i have the most confidence in as far as reliability. He's on solid line on a solid team and as long as Staal sticks doesnt fall off a cliff I don't see that changing. BUT is giving up my 4th round pick next year worth it? The answer to that is yes of course BUT could i get someone just as good in without sacrificing that pick?

Barzal worries me in two ways. Sophmore slump, is the obvious one. BUT what happens if Tavares leaves? I realize they don't play together much other than on the PP, so Barzals' value will potentially increase if Tavares happened to leave. That scares me a bit, those are big shoes to fill, especially during the dreaded sophmore season. I'd be shocked if the Isles let Tavares leave though.

Marchessault is Marchessault, and Vegas is bound to see some regression! Maybe not this season but it WILL happen.


Defense Mhmmmmm Defense....

McAvoy is so hard to pass on! He's going to be a stud BUT so is Provorov. Nothing against the Bruins but IMO Provorov has the better supporting cast. As far as the draft picks go, Provorov has the slight advantage there, as he was a FA pickup, McAvoy was my 11th round pick.

Who do we think has more upside here? Whichever I go with will almost assuredly be my keeper for a while.

Tough choices.

Thanks again all!

[stevegamer]

One thing,your goalie is F. Andersen, if you post it with an "o" and aren't clear about Toronto versus Ottawa or Freddie verus Craig, you may get erroneous advice.

More on my thinking here.

D:
You are in a multicategory league, so I'd want Provorov. As good as McAvoy seems to be, Provorov is complete.

F:
If you can figure out what people in your league think of Barzal versus Marchesault, you should keep the one more highly valued. I suspect it'll be Barzal, since "Vegas regression" will be on everyone's minds more than "sophomore slump".

[Bubba55]

Provorov is turning into, or already is a multi cat beast and I think you have to include him. I am not worried about Barzal and with what we have already seen and his potential upside you can't let that slip through your fingers.

Hope this helps