Tolvanen

[rangerdanger]

Also, I am kind of curious given so many seem to still rate Tolvanen fairly low, relative to being #1 in Dobber's ranking. A spot usually reserved for real prime A prospects with huge upside. The likes of Keller, Laine and yes sometimes Yakupov. But I wonder if some are shooting too low as far as his upside. He may be a risky prospect. But I would expect his upside to be elite. Also, if you do that in the KHL at 18, your outlook probably should be elite. Especially when you surpass other players like Kuz and Tarasenko, who are generally in an elite conversation. From fantasy perspective, I would think Tarasenko is probably his upside. Might actually be a similar type of player no?

Like 30% chance to be similar to Tarasenko. maybe 15% he's more like Yakupov or Pajaarvi. And the rest he turns out somewhere in between?

[Axeman33]

An opinion is like an arsehole; everyone's got one.

None of us own a crystal ball so all you can do is look at what you know and make your own opinion from there.

For me, considering the team and system he plays in, I don't expect the same type of production as if he was on a different team. Im not saying Nashville is bad, Im just saying they are deep and can roll lots of lines that are capable of producing. I feel this hurts Tolvanens output but that's my opinion and my reasoning for said opinion.

I simply don't think he's going to be much more than a 60pt type of guy with some years higher and some lower. On other teams he might have a better chance of reaching a higher potential output but I don't see it in Nashville.

[Jouko-Pouko]

He may be a risky prospect. But I would expect his upside to be elite.

I actually think it's the exact opposite - he's a safe prospect but doesn't have huge upside. He's a good teammate who wants to get better (coachable), good skater, good defensively, doesn't mind physical play, good playmaker, and obviously an elite shooter with very good shot selection to choose from. So he has all the tools to be successful, and he's proven he can be a great player in the 2nd best league in the world at age 18. Very few prospects are as safe as Tolvanen. But I don't see him being someone who can challenge for scoring title. He's a top tier prospect for me but there are a couple of guys with higher upside in my opinion.

[saucelife90]

I actually think it's the exact opposite - he's a safe prospect but doesn't have huge upside. He's a good teammate who wants to get better (coachable), good skater, good defensively, doesn't mind physical play, good playmaker, and obviously an elite shooter with very good shot selection to choose from. So he has all the tools to be successful, and he's proven he can be a great player in the 2nd best league in the world at age 18. Very few prospects are as safe as Tolvanen. But I don't see him being someone who can challenge for scoring title. He's a top tier prospect for me but there are a couple of guys with higher upside in my opinion.

I think this sums Tolvanen up perfectly. I'd put him in a Toews category where his numbers won't blow you away but will be consistently above average every year.

[Jouko-Pouko]

I think this sums Tolvanen up perfectly. I'd put him in a Toews category where his numbers won't blow you away but will be consistently above average every year.

What exactly is Toews category? From 2010-2013, he had 181 points in 186 games. So do you mean Tolvanen would be a point-per-game player? More recently, Toews has been around 55 points per season. So do you mean that? This is why I hate comparing prospects to current players. Besides, Toews is a horrible comparison for Tolvanen. Tarasenko is much more accurate.

[saucelife90]

What exactly is Toews category? From 2010-2013, he had 181 points in 186 games. So do you mean Tolvanen would be a point-per-game player? More recently, Toews has been around 55 points per season. So do you mean that? This is why I hate comparing prospects to current players. Besides, Toews is a horrible comparison for Tolvanen. Tarasenko is much more accurate.

His category would be around the 0.80-0.90 ppg that he averages over his career. Not picking and choosing a couple great seasons (including a lockout year) or "more recently" one bad one in which the entire Blackhawk team played poorly.

Which means on average I would say Tolvanen will put up around 70 points a year.

"I hate comparing prospects to current players, but here's a current player I'd compare him to."

[Jouko-Pouko]

His category would be around the 0.80-0.90 ppg that he averages over his career. Not picking and choosing a couple great seasons (including a lockout year) or "more recently" one bad one in which the entire Blackhawk team played poorly.

Which means on average I would say Tolvanen will put up around 70 points a year.

"I hate comparing prospects to current players, but here's a current player I'd compare him to."

See the problem is that some people see 55 points in their head when you say Toews' name. That's why I wanted to give them a more realistic projection instead of Toews who as I said, is a very bad comparison. 70 points for Tolvanen sounds about right but I'm guessing 90% of people don't see Toews as a 70-point player.

[VincentVega]

See the problem is that some people see 55 points in their head when you say Toews' name. That's why I wanted to give them a more realistic projection instead of Toews who as I said, is a very bad comparison. 70 points for Tolvanen sounds about right but I'm guessing 90% of people don't see Toews as a 70-point player.

70 points for Tolvanen seems high. I don't see it in Nashville and also don't think he'll be able to put up the assist totals to get up there. 60 points is where I see him most years when he reaches his potential.

[Jouko-Pouko]

70 points for Tolvanen seems high. I don't see it in Nashville and also don't think he'll be able to put up the assist totals to get up there. 60 points is where I see him most years when he reaches his potential.

Tolvanen is a good playmaker. A lot of people seem to be overlooking that fact, probably because they haven't been watching him much in the KHL.

The Predators spreading their offense could be an issue, that's not really something I'm concerned of. The same thing could happen to whoever drafts Svechnikov, Zadina etc. so I focus on individual talent. Team situations can change quickly.

[Mr. Guru]

Yeah Tolvanen in Nashville 60 points sounds about right.

[VincentVega]

Tolvanen is a good playmaker. A lot of people seem to be overlooking that fact, probably because they haven't been watching him much in the KHL.

The Predators spreading their offense could be an issue, that's not really something I'm concerned of. The same thing could happen to whoever drafts Svechnikov, Zadina etc. so I focus on individual talent. Team situations can change quickly.

Yeah, team situations can change but I don't see Tolavenen leaving Nashville or Nashville's situation changing much over the next few years. Also, individual talent considered, Both Svechnikov and Zadina are better than Tolvanen regardless of team situation.

[Jouko-Pouko]

Also, individual talent considered, Both Svechnikov and Zadina are better than Tolvanen regardless of team situation.

I guess we have to agree to disagree when it comes to Zadina. Both Tolvanen and Zadina are '99 kids, and besides those 2-3 weeks in Buffalo, Zadina has done nothing to outshine Tolvanen.

[VincentVega]

I guess we have to agree to disagree when it comes to Zadina. Both Tolvanen and Zadina are '99 kids, and besides those 2-3 weeks in Buffalo, Zadina has done nothing to outshine Tolvanen.

Agree to disagree it is. For me Tolvanen, other that his first two months in the KHL and 4 or 5 games at the Olympics, has done nothing to outshine Zadina. Tolvanen's pre-draft numbers were good but not great. His WJs performance was good, not great. His 2nd half in KHL was below average. His KHL playoffs were good, not great. So I mean, we don't have a lot of great play sample from Tolvanen.

[Axeman33]

As someone who has had the luxury of watching Zadina live in Halifax, I can tell you he had done plenty since the WJC and I would also have him ahead of Tolvanen in my rankings. I haven't watched much of Tolvanen because I dont watch KHL hockey but don't think for one second that Zadina has only had a couple good weeks at the WJC for the rest of the world to see. He's been fantastic all year in Halifax.

[Jouko-Pouko]

Agree to disagree it is. For me Tolvanen, other that his first two months in the KHL and 4 or 5 games at the Olympics, has done nothing to outshine Zadina. Tolvanen's pre-draft numbers were good but not great. His WJs performance was good, not great. His 2nd half in KHL was below average. His KHL playoffs were good, not great. So I mean, we don't have a lot of great play sample from Tolvanen.

Below average 2nd half? LOL. Tolvanen had a very good end to his KHL season. I honestly don't know what you're talking about here. He had a big slump midway through the season but bounced back really well to end the season on a high note. His slump lasted less than two months, and that included the World Juniors.

You want to talk about numbers? 43 points in 60 KHL games is much better than 91 points in 63 games in the Q where players don't know how to defend. A year ago, Tolvanen had 64 points in 65 games in the USHL while Zadina had 18 points in 20 games in the Czech U20 league which is way below the level of USHL. Zadina also had just 2 points in 25 games in the Czech men's league where Martin Necas had 15 points in 41 games at the same age. If you want to make Zadina look good, using numbers isn't going to do it - his numbers have never been very impressive.

EDIT: Just to add, I have no issue with anyone ranking Zadina ahead of Tolvanen. They're very close and it could go either way. I just hate it when people start spreading lies and stuff that's badly inaccurate.