Do the Habs even make the playoffs

[bergman]

You don't actually need high picks to build an elite pipeline. It definitely helps the process but it still comes down to scouting and development. Teams like Anaheim, Nashville, St. Louis have built yearly contenders and have not had significantly better pick positioning as Montreal. Simply, Montreal has done a very poor job at drafting and developing the past number of years. I won't give credit for players drafted and then traded for peanuts (McDonaugh, Andrighetto, Beaulieu), to me that just shows that management valued them incorrectly and another teams management seen that and jumped on it.

Even those high picks you need to hit on, they aren't guaranteed. Even Toronto, could have ended up with Dal Colle and Strome in 14' and 15' instead of Nylander and Marner (If I recall correctly those spots were kind of a "toss up" and nobody really knew who would slide). That would drastically change where the team is at IMO - Not saying either DC or Stome won't become excellent players, but as of right now they aren't close to Nylander or Marner.

So to say they haven't had high picks, or dwelled in the basement are very much a "cop out" answer. Many teams have strong rosters and prospects without finishing consistently low. There are also teams that get the top picks and are constant under-performers, and that's because the scouting and development haven't been as good as other teams. It might be luck, but you need some luck in that type of thing too.

I think Montreal is in trouble. I hated the Subban-Weber trade (it was short-sighted), and I didn't really love the Drouin trade. Drouin might reach his potential, and if he does they will win the deal, but outside of one 17(?) game playoff run where he looked pretty dominant, he has looked just ok to me. I'm not sure that he is going to be a guy that drives the offense, but more of a complimentary player. I hope I'm wrong, because I like him, but I want to see more out of him. I get the trade but it's one we will all have to check back to in a few years to properly evaluate. I'm still putting it as a 50/50 shot as to who comes out on top.

If they make the playoffs will come down to Carey. If he plays like Superman they will make the playoffs and have a shot there (although I don't think he can play well enough to take out the top teams in a 7 game series, he can't score the goals for them too). If he plays average, or even above average they won't make the playoffs, he needs to be elite.

I assume you're referencing some of my arguments here, but I think you really misunderstand my points. My entire argument was that Montreal has done a good job of drafting since Bergevin has taken over, particularly in later rounds. Nobody's copping out by spending half an hour compiling quality draft picks, many of them late rounders, from 2012 - 2017, and defending their process. Nobody's stating you need high picks, yet you echo my arguments by stating it definitely helps. You stated three teams with "elite" pipelines. I'll let the fact that arguing on their contention rather than their prospect pools is using 30+ year old core players in your favour and focus on the fact that the 27/30 or so other teams with less continual draft success probably aligns well with the "almost exclusively" phrase I used regarding high picks. The picks Bergevin and Timmins have made are, at the oldest, 23. Two of those 23-year olds are in the NHL, one was a late round steal, the other the highest-scoring player from his draft year. If you read my post, you'll see my actual points. Can we wait until some of these kids are actually NHL regulars before we make statements like "Montreal has done a very poor job at drafting and developing the past number of years" ?

[The Black Panther]

I assume you're referencing some of my arguments here, but I think you really misunderstand my points. My entire argument was that Montreal has done a good job of drafting since Bergevin has taken over, particularly in later rounds. Nobody's copping out by spending half an hour compiling quality draft picks, many of them late rounders, from 2012 - 2017, and defending their process. Nobody's stating you need high picks, yet you echo my arguments by stating it definitely helps. You stated three teams with "elite" pipelines. I'll let the fact that arguing on their contention rather than their prospect pools is using 30+ year old core players in your favour and focus on the fact that the 27/30 or so other teams with less continual draft success probably aligns well with the "almost exclusively" phrase I used regarding high picks. The picks Bergevin and Timmins have made are, at the oldest, 23. Two of those 23-year olds are in the NHL, one was a late round steal, the other the highest-scoring player from his draft year. If you read my post, you'll see my actual points. Can we wait until some of these kids are actually NHL regulars before we make statements like "Montreal has done a very poor job at drafting and developing the past number of years" ?

Lets look at those 6 years. PLEASE NO OFFENCE I just want to show who they drafted for discussion. If i missed any key players please let me know.


2012

Alex Galchenyuk
Charles Hudon - yet to see if hes not just a CAREER ahler

2013

Michael McCarron
Zachary Fucale
Artturi Lehkonen
Sven Andrighetto

2014

Nikita Scherbak

2015

Noah Juulsen

2016

Mikhail Sergachev (Johnathan Drouin)
William Bitten
Victor Mete

2017

Ryan Poehling

[newfcollins]

Okay, this is just ridiculous... Bergevin and his staff inherited a horrible pipeline comprised of the following drafts' hauls (or lack thereof):

[Cut the list for space, but suffice to say it is horrible]

What's interesting about this draft list is that it's same head scout for every draft. And in 10 years, nothing much has improved. I agree that Bergevin inherited a horrible pipeline, but six years later, it's not that great. Dobber Prospects ranked Montreal as having one of the worst prospect groups in the league. The Hockey Writers had the Habs as one of the worst prospect groups in the league. ESPN was nice and had Montreal ranked as high as 23rd.

[bergman]

What's interesting about this draft list is that it's same head scout for every draft. And in 10 years, nothing much has improved. I agree that Bergevin inherited a horrible pipeline, but six years later, it's not that great. Dobber Prospects ranked Montreal as having one of the worst prospect groups in the league. The Hockey Writers had the Habs as one of the worst prospect groups in the league. ESPN was nice and had Montreal ranked as high as 23rd.

Sorry guys but each time I look into the facts behind these issues of debate I seem to find the Canadiens get trolled and trashed undeservedly...

In his time with the Canadiens, Timmins has had below-average first-round success. He's had among the best success in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, and is among the best in later rounds. This is measured in games played per pick. You could attempt to argue that the Canadiens have been a bad team, and therefore it's been easier for their prospects to walk onto the NHL roster, but they have missed the playoffs only three times since the lockout in 04-05. They rank 11th out of 30 teams in playoff wins since the lockout, and 11th in regular season points. They rank 8th in points-per-game-played for their draftees since 2003. They rank 1st out of 30 teams in games played by their draftees since 2003. This is all based on an average draft position of 17th overall or 17th out of 30 each round. This is despite all of the horrible selections throughout many of the drafts in the years before Bergevin came along. I really don't know what went on in those years, it was pretty bad. But to summarize, there is probably no one single person to have had better success at the draft than Timmins. It truly seems that their pipeline is being rebuilt. You add 4-9 players per draft and have a low likelihood of success given that the best team, Montreal, sees only one full season worth of games out of each pick... The conclusion that they've always had poor drafting and development is perhaps based on people not seeing big-name players in their system.

Info from here:

https://www.habseyesontheprize.com/n...ateur-scouting
Wikipedia Canadiens page.
NHL.com for the playoff and reg season leaders.

[agentzero]

The conclusion that they've always had poor drafting and development is perhaps based on people not seeing big-name players in their system.

That's exactly it, Bergman. The problem is below average drafting success in the round that is supposed to produce a higher rate of impact players. I think games played by prospect is a poor measure, since you can play and call-up the Daniel Carrs, Mike McCarrons... etc. but they are bottom 6 in quality, never mind the quantity of the players the Habs have had play NHL games. You said yourself they mis-implemented Andrighetto and my argument regarding professional development is exactly this.

In the 10 years plus that Timmins has been at the helm of the program, the Habs have produced exactly ONE top line NHL plyaer (Patches, and even he isn't that great), one elite goalie selected 5th overall and two high-end defencemen, one who was traded needlessly before Bergevin and one who was needlessly traded BY Bergevin.

Draft position matters somewhat, but plenty of other teams have been able to select budding stars in the same slots or thereabouts where the Canadiens selected. Draft picks are lottery tickets to an extent, but the prospects the Habs select are never considered bad when they are drafted (if we take the first round, for example), however they consistently don't make and NHL impact. To me, that suggests a professional development problem and an obvious one at that.

The Habs might get trolled a lot needlessly, but they sure as hell get needlessly defended too, which only hurts their progress. They should accept the critique, the reality, and maybe change their model.

[als_revenge]

To make this thread more relevant, I think the following should be added to the subject title: "....this decade?"

[Call of Doughty]

Any predictions on tonight's leafs habs game?

Being close to the QUE. border and having 690 TSN on most of the time, I can tell you the hosts and community are ready for the roof to collapse (if it hasn't done so already). Galchen. has been ripped and shredded for 2 years now on radio. Poor scouting, poor player development and a mediocre GM are constantly circled about on 690. Don't believe me, go and listen to as many podcasts from the past month or so online. Talented players should not be playing on the 4th line. They should be playing with other talented offensive players. But in hindsight, #27's motivation has been called out numerous times.

[Axeman33]

It's funny (not in a laughing way but more of an ironic way) that people are all climbing on Galchenyuk and the Habs now for his questionable development when for ages, everyone crapped on the Oilers for "ruining" Yakupov due to poor prospect development. For quite some time, some folks always said that the Oilers pooched the pick and should have taken Galchenyuk (or even Ryan Murray, who the Oilers scouts really wanted at 1st overall that year) instead of Yakupov because he looked like the best of the three but it would seem that it wasn't just the Oilers who didn't got it right at the top of that draft. At least not yet anyway. That or all the teams are guilty of ruining the young talent at the top of that draft. I don't really blame the Blue Jackets though. Ryan Murray struggled early in his career with injuries and D do take longer to develop.

I still believe that all three of those top three guys will carve out good NHL careers. Murray and Galchenyuk both could use a change of environment to help turn their careers around. Early on, it's looking like Yakupov may have finally found a good landing spot on a team that will use him in a role he can excel in.

FWIW, I do think Montreal needs to get Galchenyuk back up into a role that fits his skillset. If not, they are simply paying a lot of money to a kid to do next to nothing. Don't get me wrong, Galchenyuk needs to be better too, but he won't be much help to them, or get any better if he's only playing in a 4th line role. The Habs NEED Galchenyuk if they are going to make a serious run at the playoffs.

[Taco97]

Without Carey Price, this is a bottom-5 NHL team. Haven't been able to score goals for years, and they lost more talent over this last offseason. D is hot garbage outside of Weber, and only forward that can consistently put the puck in the net is Patches. Zero chance this team makes the playoffs, the Habs have been a very poorly run franchise for quite some time now.

[The Black Panther]

It's funny (not in a laughing way but more of an ironic way) that people are all climbing on Galchenyuk and the Habs now for his questionable development when for ages, everyone crapped on the Oilers for "ruining" Yakupov due to poor prospect development. For quite some time, some folks always said that the Oilers pooched the pick and should have taken Galchenyuk (or even Ryan Murray, who the Oilers scouts really wanted at 1st overall that year) instead of Yakupov because he looked like the best of the three but it would seem that it wasn't just the Oilers who didn't got it right at the top of that draft. At least not yet anyway. That or all the teams are guilty of ruining the young talent at the top of that draft. I don't really blame the Blue Jackets though. Ryan Murray struggled early in his career with injuries and D do take longer to develop.

I still believe that all three of those top three guys will carve out good NHL careers. Murray and Galchenyuk both could use a change of environment to help turn their careers around. Early on, it's looking like Yakupov may have finally found a good landing spot on a team that will use him in a role he can excel in.

FWIW, I do think Montreal needs to get Galchenyuk back up into a role that fits his skillset. If not, they are simply paying a lot of money to a kid to do next to nothing. Don't get me wrong, Galchenyuk needs to be better too, but he won't be much help to them, or get any better if he's only playing in a 4th line role. The Habs NEED Galchenyuk if they are going to make a serious run at the playoffs.

Leafs too. As far back as the 70s Leafs have been guilty of poor drafting & development(Not to mention trading them). I mean some of the guys drafted back then were good NHL Players but they couldve drafted better. And never a real superstar other then Darryl Sittler(Honorable mention to Lanny Macdonald). (Though they almost traded him cause they thought he was a bust - Couldnt skate). Though to be honest in the early 70s drafts werent as deep with very good players. Most of the late rds, while you got an odd steal, you sometimes got a servicable player.

1st rdrs; Jack Valliquette(cement feet) DAshby(RIP)
1977 - Missed out on Mike Bossy. Drafted Anderson & Johansen instead. Yikes
1979 - Laurie Boschman. So many better after him.

And many know about the 80s and beyond

[ShawneePanthers]

To make this thread more relevant, I think the following should be added to the subject title: "....this decade?"

It's funny to see how the team has unraveled this year.

[tweetdrivr]

It's funny to see how the team has unraveled this year.

Ah yes...5 games in and they have "unraveled". I remember my first season as a hockey fan.

[ross10019]

Without Carey Price, this is a bottom-5 NHL team. Haven't been able to score goals for years, and they lost more talent over this last offseason. D is hot garbage outside of Weber, and only forward that can consistently put the puck in the net is Patches. Zero chance this team makes the playoffs, the Habs have been a very poorly run franchise for quite some time now.

You're entitled to your opinion of course, but saying Habs are a bottom 5 team without Price is a bit ridiculous. Zero chance of making playoffs is even more absurd. I definitely have concerns about the future, but thus team with Price is at the least a playoff bubble team and possibly a playoff contender.

[berni67]

To answer the question of this thread : No the Habs won't make the playoff

[ShawneePanthers]

Ah yes...5 games in and they have "unraveled". I remember my first season as a hockey fan.

Let's just say that I've seen enough to know when a team is doomed. But please elaborate about your first season as a hockey fan - it sounds quite recent.