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Thread: 2017/18 Rocky Horror Roto Show

  1. #91
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    Default Re: 2017/18 Rocky Horror Roto Show

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    God I hate looking at these standings.
    Gonna be a great finish - curious to know which GMs are crunching the numbers hard to set up their teams stretch run.

    I'm targeting 80pts!
    This is my year man... with you, Temek, horrorfan/shoeless sitting off the podium at the moment, it?s the best shot I?ve ever had at winning it all. I?ll need some luck, but I?m pretty sure it?s the best shot I?ve ever had in this league!

    My big trades have paid off so far, trading for Marner/Krug earlier in the year, moving 3 goalies for Pavelski/Miller. Hopefully these latest two moves are enough to put me over the top.

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    Default Re: 2017/18 Rocky Horror Roto Show

    Standings update - March 10, 2018:


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    Default Re: 2017/18 Rocky Horror Roto Show

    Standings update - March 25, 2018:


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    Default Re: 2017/18 Rocky Horror Roto Show

    Quick update of the leaders:

    1 Polter-Getz 129
    2 ZombEhlers 122.5
    3 Natural Born Quiller 109
    4 The Kings in Yellow 107
    5 Closer to Gaudreau 102

  5. #95
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    Default Re: 2017/18 Rocky Horror Roto Show

    Thanks for the update horrorfan! Was pretty stoked to find I was still in second after being away for a week. Should be a great finish!
    Without me, it's only "aweso".


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    Default Re: 2017/18 Rocky Horror Roto Show

    You know a league is competitive when there have been 48 transactions over the last 4 days this late in a season
    Without me, it's only "aweso".


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    Default Re: 2017/18 Rocky Horror Roto Show

    Standings update: April 2, 2018:

    1 Polter-Getz 132
    2 ZombEhlers 122.5
    3 The Kings in Yellow 104
    4 Closer to Gaudreau 103
    5 Natural Born Quiller 101.5
    6 Gost Story 97
    7 Maaaaaa-chete 88
    8 The Devan Rides Out 81
    9 Lil Propp of Horrors 79
    10 Fowlers in the Attic 72.5
    11 PumpKaneHead 64.5
    12 Steenage Werewolf 47

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    Default Re: 2017/18 Rocky Horror Roto Show

    Just a heads up that from tomorrow I will be away for a week with limited online access. Good luck this final weekend.

    Leaders' update:

    1 Polter-Getz 132
    2 ZombEhlers 125.5
    3 Closer to Gaudreau 104.5
    4 Natural Born Quiller 102.5
    5 Gost Story 100.5
    6 The Kings in Yellow 98

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    Default Re: 2017/18 Rocky Horror Roto Show

    It doesn't feel too early to congratulate Quentin (Yzerman's Legacy) and Gabe (4T2) on their tremendous seasons in 1st-2nd.
    Oh... I don't look forward to my team's post-mortem write-up next week.
    Oh, who am I kidding, I love post-team analysis - even when my team STUNK!!!

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    Default Re: 2017/18 Rocky Horror Roto Show

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    It doesn't feel too early to congratulate Quentin (Yzerman's Legacy) and Gabe (4T2) on their tremendous seasons in 1st-2nd.
    Oh... I don't look forward to my team's post-mortem write-up next week.
    Oh, who am I kidding, I love post-team analysis - even when my team STUNK!!!
    Thanks but I won?t get excited until it?s over. I?m still half expecting temek to come out of nowhere and pick up 30 points on the last day haha

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    Default Re: 2017/18 Rocky Horror Roto Show

    Well... (well... sigh...) time for a post-mortem on my team.
    A fitting term considering I felt dead about this team all year.

    Right to it.
    So... my closing case on my team write-up was this:

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    Projected Finish Cases:
    a) Mason sucks, I don't find patch goalies: 8/12
    b) Mason average, short a few patch goalies: 5/12
    c) Mason is great, I patch my second goalie: 2/12
    I finished 9/12... and Mason sucked. And I didn't find patch goalies.
    But, in honesty, it was all more about an abysmal offense that just far underperformed the 2nd-best prediction that even Temek assigned to them heading into the year.

    Looking back, I was happy with this team I drafted.
    Temek's predictions gave me 83pts in Skater prediction, 10pts in Goalie prediction.
    I can almost always overachieve in goalie stats because I draft a last-place goalie team and then really work hard to spot-find saves & wins.

    Goalies:
    The GOOD: Saves. I scrapped for a full 165 starts, which actually got me to 4600sv, good for 3rd. 10pts / 12.
    The OK: Wins. More on goalie quality in a bit, but I finished with 79, 3way tie for 7th place. That's 6pts / 12. (18pts on W,SV... not bad)
    The BAD: GAA/SV%. Second LAST in both with a 2.94gaa & .908sv%. Amazing considering I owned the 2nd best goalie, Hellebuyck, who put up 2.36gaa & .924sv%.
    I mean... just think about how you have to balance a 2.36gaa & .924sv% to get it down to 2.94gaa and .908sv%... I mean seriously... what are we talking.... like a 3.30gaa & .895sv%... good grief.
    In most years, back-up goalies on good teams can be had/found, spot-started... it just wasn't that way this year. And Steve Mason was SOOOO bad to start the season.
    The Rant. While I dig most GMs in the league, one GM decided to draft five... (FIVE!) #1 goalies in the first 8 rounds. The GM this most affected... was me. The GM's strategy was probably to hold that goalie ransom on the team that needed it in hopes of getting a skater-haul in trade offer based on the ransom. It didn't work. I won't be ransomed. Then, GM didn't even start those goalies for the first 3+ weeks of season, essentially "benching value". In the 5+ seasons I've played in this league, I thought this was the most poor show of sportsmanship. I mean... GMs are welcome to try their own strategy, but he essentially took himself down by only drafting three skaters in the first 8 rounds... and what a beauty group of skaters it was as they included Kopitar & Giroux (& same GM had Dustin Brown!). If this GM had just drafted 3 goalies, say, and 5 skaters in 8 rounds, he probably finishes top two.

    Skaters:
    I drafted skaters in the first 9 rounds, taking Mason(10th)/Hellebucyk(22nd) to shore up 82 starts and then patched in back-up goalies all year.
    But it was my goal to go heavy on D as that strategy has won me league titles in two other leagues over past two years.
    Ultimately, though, just bad luck.
    1-5 Erik Karlsson had a dismal year. Anybody that took him new that.
    2-20 Hedman was a solid pick, he finished as the #1 overall D-man and top 20 fantasy, so got my value there.
    3-29 Weber injured his foot in game 1 and didn't even play 30gp... but he was a top 10 per-game D-man while he played injured.
    4-44 Ristolainen started slow, super duper slow. Finished as #22 D-man and #107 overall... and I would've much prefered that injured Auston Mathews over Risto. Sigh.
    ...
    5-53 Giordano was a guy I drafted too early, he started slow and then I traded him with...
    6-68 Ry.Johansen started... wasn't even slow... it was sloth-ish... and I was so far back in G (Ry-Jo not being a shooter) that I desparately traded Gio/Ryjo to the would-be-champ for Couture/J.Neal, both who were showing signs of goal-scoring.
    ...
    7-77 Toews was his started OK self. He just gives value of where he's drafted and lots of FOW - a category I won, as usual.
    8-92 W.Nylander was a tale of 3-season. He started on fire with Matthews, could not do shit with Matthews out, then finished hot with Matthews.
    ...
    9-101 Jon Drouin. Mercy. If there was ONE GUY this year I had huge, huge hopes for... it was Drouin. And though the shift to center give me FOW I wasn't expecting, I do believe it really curbed his ability to be offensive. Young players transitioning into full-time center often sputter... as MacKinnon did in his first few full-time years at C. Drouin will get there, but I think he would've been better as winger. He just didn't have together this year...


    ...
    10-116 Steve Mason. Well, right & wrong on this. The right is that I was REALLY high on the Winnipeg Jets this year, and vowed to get their goalies... which I did. But the wrong was Mason himself, who was BlueJacket-esque in his early play.
    ...
    11-125. It gets interesting here. I actually had three straight terrific picks in the "value section" of the draft. Aleks Barkov in the 11th who finished as Yahoo #21. He was probably a top 10 skater in the middle 1/3rd of the season. When he was hot I thought I could chase more G/SOG by offering him for Jack Eichel, which was accepted, but Barkov stayed red-hot... and Eichel... got injured - it was that kind of year.
    ...
    12-140. Richard Rakell. Rakell was great this year, but another slow-starter. And I got desperate after the slow-start. Beyond mid-season I got a McDavid/Nino offer for Rakell/Toews... and made it. I don't think this trade made a difference for me in either direction as I still won FOW and finished on my own 2nd last planet in most offense. But Rakell, IIRC, ended as a top 60 skater.
    ...
    13-149. Muzzin returned to form and was really good... but did play poorly down the stretch.
    .

    After this point, most of my guys were typical throw-back fodder.
    Cam Fowler (14th) was OK here & there, but I had to shoot for the moon with high-risk players after a slow start. I named my team after him, then dropped him, which ALWAYS pisses of the fantasy hockey gods... and they shunned me!
    Jakob Silfverberg (15th) started insanely slow... man I had a ton of slow starters.
    Phillip Danault (16th) had his offense set-back when MON went with Drouin as C1. I really believe the team would've been better by letting Danault be a Bozak-esque C1 or C2 with Drouin on the wing.
    Maybe I'm smarter than Habs management because the way they ran the forwards sure didn't seem to work.
    M.Backlund (17th) is serviceable and was good line 2/PP2 value.
    K.Hayes (18th) actually finished the season very, very well, but I had dropped him long before NYR needed him to score.
    Brayden Point (19th) was my lone shining-late pick. He was terrific for most the year.
    Pulju(20) and Meier(21) were auto-picks who both had moments, but I dropped them after slow starts.


    Overall, it was just a rotten season.
    A huge slow start, Karlsson, Weber injury, desperation to keep-pace with goalie starts by rostering everybody I could find starting.
    It would actually be interesting to go back, swap out Karlsson for Ovechkin... project Weber to 82gp healthy, keep my guys (RyJo, Gio, Toews, Rakell)... and assume there was a 2nd goalie around for me.
    If all that happens and I happen to be forced into Fleury... or get Raanta... I think it's still a top five team, maybe even top three.

    Ultimately, I still liked my strategy, but some years.... things just don't go well.
    And this... this was one of those years!

    Back after it again next year.

    Congrats to the champ, Yzerman's Legacy/Polter-Getz, on a fine-fine season!!!

  12. #102
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    Default Re: 2017/18 Rocky Horror Roto Show

    Congrats to Yzerman's Legacy on the victory this year. I held out hope of catching you right until the last week. Great season by everyone as always.

    On a personal note! I'm pretty thrilled to have finally made the podium after 7 years in this league. This league is extremely competitive from top to bottom every year. Of course, now that I've gotten a second place finish, my sights are set on that elusive win. 2018/19 can't come soon enough!

    A quick post mortem on my team:

    Draft Analysis - My first 10 rounds were pretty solid (Kucherov, Seguin, Scheifle, Bishopo, Rinne, Ehlers, Panarin, Schultz, Phaneuf, Kadri). Really the only misses were Bishop (not that bad) and Schultz.

    I had a couple of hits later with Grubauer in the 16th, McAvoy in the 18th and the Detroit tandem in the 21st and 25th. All of those guys provided great value. But other than that my later draft was pretty unsuccessful. I cut bait on Gallagher after only 7 games (big mistake) and hung on to guys like Wennberg, Skjei, Dubinsky way too long.

    Waiver Analysis - Snagged Brock Boeser on Oct 18th and he would provide tremendous value all season. A week later I snagged William Karlsson and we all know how that worked out. Ferland in November and Colin Miller in December also provided some pretty good value throughout the season. Hell, even Michael Haley's 39 PIM game that I picked up with a waiver add gave me a full standings point. All in all, this was a great year for me for working the WW.

    Trade Analysis - This was my most aggressive year for trading in this league and it paid off in spades.
    Dec 6 - Traded Dion Phaneuf and Elias Lindholm for Mitch Marner and Torey Krug - Marner was struggling and Lindholm had been steady. I took a risk on this as I hated giving up Phaneuf's perihperals. But it paid off. Phaneuf and Lindholm were pretty unimpressive for the remainder of the season while both of the players I acquired took off shortly after.

    Feb 7 - Traded Jimmy Howard, Mrazek and Grubauer for Pavelski and JT Miller. I was pacing way ahead on goalie games and Steenage Werewolf needed the G help. The forwards combined for 52 points in 54 games for me while boosting my peripherals and snagging me a few standings points in FOWs from guys who were directly ahead of me in the overall standings. Kind of owe a stick tap to Maaa as he had convinced me to target FOWs in trade talks with him, although I ended up going a different route.

    Feb 28 - Traded Boeser/Schultz for Dustin Brown. I know Maaa is kicking himself for this one as we were battling in the overall standings and I'm pretty sure he only got 2 games out of Boeser before his injury. Brown meanwhile stuffed the stats for me with 17 points in 18 games, while posting 60 SOG and 34 hits.

    Feb 28 - Traded Krug and Ehlers for Backstrom and Goligoski. Backstrom was spectacular for me after this trade. Ehlers and Krug were no slouches for Rick, but this gave me a boost in the categories I needed help in.

    All in all, without the luck I got trading this year, I don't think I finish on the podium.

    Overall Analysis - My most successful year ever in the RHRS and I owe it all to being aggressive between the trading and the waiver wire. I had far more hits than misses and lucked out buying low on a few guys. I also was the beneficiary of down years for some of the league heavyweights and perennial contenders in temek, Pengwin and horrorfan. I'll definitely be taking the lessons I learned this year and shooting for my first win for next season.

    Great season guys and I can't wait for year 8.
    Without me, it's only "aweso".


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    Default Re: 2017/18 Rocky Horror Roto Show

    Killer write-ups Peng and 4T2.

    For the record, that final point total is VERY misleading as things were actually MUCH closer than that. I had about a 3-4 point drop I was vulnerable to right up to the final few nights - and truthfully, one GM who didn't max his games would have 100% taken me down in 4, maybe 5 cats had he maxed his roster. That's a 7-9 point drop, and a win for 4T2 if everything went like the Oilers season did. Happy that it didn't!

    Always enjoy doing my post-mortem as I tend to learn a LOT from revisiting what I was thinking in Sept/Oct and why I hit or missed on certain guys. While I was happy with my team at the draft, I wasn't elated, and in fact, really believed that 1, maybe 2 teams, were significantly "better" than mine. Interestingly neither of those teams finished in the top half... so I'm already wary that my early season predictions weren't as solid as the league "win" would suggest!

    Draft Analysis:
    1) J.Benn - knew I was overpicking him at the time but his FOW and expected peripherals were important to my draft strategy. He did fine - not insanely good (weak on the PIMs) but fine.
    2) Letang - expected more and his +/- was horr-awful, but getting a full year out of him basically made him decent value
    3) Gibson - Very solid despite some (expected) time on the IR
    4) Doughy - Home run. Targeted him hoping the coaching change would open things up and it did. Stick tap to Kopitar for being a beast to help make this happen.
    5) Getzlaf - Tough IR time in the first half but he was a monster when he played.
    6) S.Darling - Ouch. Couldn't have had a bigger miss at this point in the draft. I REALLY missed on my Canes call this season and it likely cost me a win in a different pool.
    7) Radulov - Excellent. He's a guy people love or hate which can sometimes make him strong value. He delivered what I was hoping for.
    8) E.Kane - Monster in the first half. Tried hard to move him mid-way but couldn't find a match. Salvaged the season with a strong finish on SJ. Weaker on PIMs than expected.
    9) J.Carlson - Home run. Banked on a few UFA guys to have big years and JC killed it. So much so that I moved him near the deadline assuming there's no way he'd keep up the pace. He did, and I lost that trade to Shoeless (JC, Stastny, Varly for Matthews, Ward) - but was able to get waiver runs out of D in his slot and when Matthews played he was decent enough that it didn't cost me too badly.
    10) Gudas - Half miss. First half of the year he was exactly as expected. Then he got his 10-game suspension and turned into a shell of himself. Wound up dropping him altogether after Boro became available on the wire
    11) Couture - Great start enabled me to make a deal with Peng for pieces I needed. Would not have moved him if he didn't wind up losing his FOW to Hertl - but once he did, and it took quite a while for him to get his LW, he didn't fit my puzzle anymore.
    12) Raanta - Great hit and salvaged my terrible Darling miss earlier.
    13) M.Stone - Returned great value for here, especially since what he provided was what my team needed at this point.
    14) Huberdeau - See M.Stone
    15) J.Neal - Great start and the other piece of the RyJo/Gio for Couture swap with Peng.
    16) J.Staal - Really solid hit here.
    17) Stastny - Again, great hit with a fantastic start. Had I had any inkling he'd go to the Jets I would not have made the Matthews deal... but that's how it goes.
    18-25) Mostly misses but that's a little expected at this stage. Big hit was Varlamov at 22 and Del Zotto/Parise were fine for 18/19. And while they didn't last on my team, Pulock (23) and Ferland (24) held value for other GMs when they had them for stretches. Severson (20), Tatar (21) and D.Strome (25) didn't make a ripple. That D.Strome one hurt too, as the other guy I was debating between was D.Brown. If only we counted AHL points...

    Waivers:
    Not as in-depth an assessment at 4T2 but overall I seemed to do better than worse off the wire this year. Big hits were Josh Anderson, Atkinson, Gallagher, Fowler & H.Lindholm who each sucked at times but seemed to peak when I had them.

    Trades:
    Definitely lost that deal to Shoeless and I'd call my deal with Peng a push. Solid deal moving a hot J. Anderson for S.Aho in early Dec. Was trying like mad to make deals at different times but it just seemed like the guys who needed the cats I was selling didn't have the cats I needed and vice versa. Lots of great trade convos - just few finalized. The reality is that this group of GMs knows their stuff so well, that unless there's a mutually beneficial hockey deal to be had, there's usually no deal.

    Overall:
    The fantasy gods were kind to me this year with no massive injuries and aside from Darling, no massive misses with my picks when it counted. Few home runs but a bunch of singles, doubles and a few triples kept me in contention almost the entire year. Waiver wire (which I think is a critical piece since I don't think anyone can win this league without making moves along the way) had more hits than misses too so my read on guys who were "due" seemed to be strong this season.

    I liked my draft strategy for this year but didn't leave thinking I was the best team - which means I'll have to switch up the plan for next season since I know the other GMs will be switching up their plans too.

    Stick tap to 4T2 for pushing things right down to the end - and to the fantastic group of GMs who make this one of the most challenging leagues out there. Slow clap as well to HorrorFan for his excellence as commissioner. (Quick helmet shake to The Comish too for filling in early on!)

    Already looking forward to next year and our live draft in Vegas!!
    Hanson Bros., ESPN, 10-Team, Keep 8, weighted scoring
    RHRS, Yahoo 12-team ROTO

    ​"Great minds discuss ideas. Average minds discuss events. Small minds discuss people" - Eleanor Roosevelt

  14. #104
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    Default Re: 2017/18 Rocky Horror Roto Show

    Congrats to YzermansLegacy on the win! Here are the final standings:


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