who has more upside

[2014olympicgold]

Yawn.

Puempel played 3yrs in the OHL, Chabot is in his 4^th yr in the QMJHL

I?m just saying yrs in Jr don?t mean much anymore. It?s like the ECHL and goalies now. Just because you?re in that league doesn?t mean you?re career is done.

In the case of Debrincat, why would Chicago bring him to the NHL when he?s a top 6 player, and Hossa/Kane are the teams RW? He would be in the AHL but the rules don?t allow that. Eventually Hossa will have to move to a 3^rd line role, that?s when Debrincat will get his shot on the top lines.

[The Iron Sheik]

Puempel played 3yrs in the OHL, Chabot is in his 4^th yr in the QMJHL

I?m just saying yrs in Jr don?t mean much anymore. It?s like the ECHL and goalies now. Just because you?re in that league doesn?t mean you?re career is done.

In the case of Debrincat, why would Chicago bring him to the NHL when he?s a top 6 player, and Hossa/Kane are the teams RW? He would be in the AHL but the rules don?t allow that. Eventually Hossa will have to move to a 3^rd line role, that?s when Debrincat will get his shot on the top lines.

What the hell are you going on about. I didn't say his career was done because he's playing three years in junior. My statement was a bit farfetched, but a lot of players would probably score 50 goals three years in a row if they stick around longer than two years and don't go to the WJC.

And Matt Puempel is awful. So not sure what reason you brought him up. He played 4 years too.

(By the way, no I don't think he will do well in NHL compared to his junior numbers).

[2014olympicgold]

What the hell are you going on about. I didn't say his career was done because he's playing three years in junior. My statement was a bit farfetched, but a lot of players would probably score 50 goals three years in a row if they stick around longer than two years and don't go to the WJC.

And Matt Puempel is awful. So not sure what reason you brought him up. He played 4 years too.

(By the way, no I don't think he will do well in NHL compared to his junior numbers).

Is it fair to say that when you say ?the truly great players don?t spend three years there? would mean you don?t agree with Mr. Guru?s assessment of Debrincat? Because that?s how I read it. So I listed a player who was in Jrs a while who is very good (and that I know you have high praise for rightfully so).

Then I listed a couple of guys off the top of my head that spent longer than 2yrs in the jr system. Doesn?t mean I directed at Ottawa, just guys who popped in my head. Connor Brown spent 3 yrs in the OHL.

Debrincat?s size, and NHL Team?s roster is keeping him out of the NHL, not his talent. If he was bigger, he could be used as a 3^rd liner. He?s a high risk, high reward prospect that will be a ton of fun to watch in the NHL when he makes the jump. Debrincat?s omission from the USA WJ Team was controversial to say the least, but made sense from the guys who occupy the same position as he did. He played in Helsinki too, so he made the 50goal mark while playing the 2016 WJC.

[Jouko-Pouko]

Debrincat has the highest upside of this group for sure.

Anyone who doesn't pick a guy who is sparking discussion about matching a feat not seen in four decades (3 straight 50 goal seasons in the OHL) underlines that he is a special talent.

You wanted pure upside? Debrincat is your answer.

I agree with the Sheik here; if he was truly a special talent, he would have made the NHL already. Or at least gotten a 9-game trial. And he definitely would have been on Team USA roster at the WJC if he was a special talent. Even if the team management doesn't like his choice to play junior hockey in Canada, they wouldn't cut a special talent from their team. Patrick Kane is a special talent, and he made the jump straight to the NHL after the draft. He definitely would have scored 50 goals for 3 straight seasons if he played in the OHL that long.

Was DeBrincat even close to a roster spot this season? I can't find any information about that but I also don't remember that being the case. Considering Hossa was 37 when the season started and coming off a season of 33 points in 64 games, I doubt Hossa was standing in DeBrincat's way. I think most believed before this season that Hossa's time as a top-6 forward was done and he would continue playing on the 3rd line because of his strong two-way game. I remember reading comments how Nick Schmaltz or Tyler Motte was going to take Hossa's spot next to Toews; I don't remember reading any discussion about DeBrincat taking that spot.

Let's use NHLe to see how DeBrincat's numbers match up against Brock Boeser:
DeBrincat 2014-2015: 38 points
DeBrincat 2015-2016: 41 points
DeBrincat 2016-2017: 46 points

Boeser's NHLe number in his NCAA rookie season was 48 points. So his NCAA rookie season was already more impressive than DeBrincat's 3rd OHL season. So yeah, don't be fooled by junior numbers because many people can score a ton there without it translating to the NHL. It also hasn't hurt DeBrincat that Dylan Strome has been on the same team with him that entire time (and of course McDavid was also there during DeBrincat's 1st year). By the way, Dylan Strome has outproduced DeBrincat every season on the same team, and his pace this year is also better then DeBrincat's.

So maybe you can say that DeBrincat has higher upside than Boeser but there's definitely nothing "sure" about it. I ranked Boeser 1st because I like his combination of upside and NHL certainty. I would put Boeser's NHL certainty at 80% while DeBrincat is somewhere around 50%. Even if there's a small difference in their upside (which I don't believe there is), it wouldn't be enough for me to justify taking that risk. If they played junior hockey their entire career, then perhaps DeBrincat would have more upside. But Boeser's game translates to the NHL much better which puts his NHL upside higher in my opinion.

[The Iron Sheik]

Is it fair to say that when you say ?the truly great players don?t spend three years there? would mean you don?t agree with Mr. Guru?s assessment of Debrincat? Because that?s how I read it. So I listed a player who was in Jrs a while who is very good (and that I know you have high praise for rightfully so).

Then I listed a couple of guys off the top of my head that spent longer than 2yrs in the jr system. Doesn?t mean I directed at Ottawa, just guys who popped in my head. Connor Brown spent 3 yrs in the OHL.

Debrincat?s size, and NHL Team?s roster is keeping him out of the NHL, not his talent. If he was bigger, he could be used as a 3^rd liner. He?s a high risk, high reward prospect that will be a ton of fun to watch in the NHL when he makes the jump. Debrincat?s omission from the USA WJ Team was controversial to say the least, but made sense from the guys who occupy the same position as he did. He played in Helsinki too, so he made the 50goal mark while playing the 2016 WJC.

Great. You completely missed my point, but OK. Do I think DeBrincat has special talent? No. There are endless guys like him who come and go. Rocco Grimaldi is a great example.

[The Iron Sheik]

I agree with the Sheik here; if he was truly a special talent, he would have made the NHL already.

I didn't say that. I was just commenting on the record being discussed. That's it.

For the record, for upside and certainty (combination of two), I think Brown has most upside for points and Boeser for goals.

[lucafen4]

DeBrincat's going into a Chicago team that's loaded still... 3? 4? years before he gets going full steam ahead?

If McCann, Virtanen, Horvat, Stecher - can all make the jump to the Canucks in their first year of pro hockey... Boeser definitely will.

Besides... there is still an empty space on that top line with the twins. It's been vacant since Anson Carter left.

Boeser's a much safer bet to reach his upside than DeBrincat.

I wouldn't be surprised though if in 5 years, Logan Brown is having the most team impact of the bunch.

Sprong needs to play some games before we can seriously consider him moving forward. AHL bound for at least one season, possibly two, after all this is Pittsburgh's line up he needs to crack and Sheary/Guentzel just filled spots.

[havanablast21]

I'd go debrincat then broeser.

Make that 2. Agree with kevinsrangers

[2014olympicgold]

Great. You completely missed my point, but OK. Do I think DeBrincat has special talent? No. There are endless guys like him who come and go. Rocco Grimaldi is a great example.

Isn?t Rocco Grimaldi only 23 and decided to go to university and played very little yr 1? He?s 5?6? and only like 10lbs heavier than Debrincat but 4yrs older? Plus a different league he was in (college). I haven?t watched him play since the WJC in ?13.

Debrincat is a High ceiling, low floor kind of player. That?s all I?m saying. I prefer the boom/bust guys when it?s something like this (all uncertain career arches).

[The Iron Sheik]

Isn?t Rocco Grimaldi only 23 and decided to go to university and played very little yr 1? He?s 5?6? and only like 10lbs heavier than Debrincat but 4yrs older? Plus a different league he was in (college). I haven?t watched him play since the WJC in ?13.

Debrincat is a High ceiling, low floor kind of player. That?s all I?m saying. I prefer the boom/bust guys when it?s something like this (all uncertain career arches).

again missing the point...nevermind.

[Mr. Guru]

Ok, name players that have posted back to back 50 goal seasons.

Surely 2 years in the OHL is normal, right?

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Ok, name players that have posted back to back 50 goal seasons.

Surely 2 years in the OHL is normal, right?

[Mr. Guru]

Boeser's a much safer bet to reach his upside than DeBrincat.

Ahh, but thats not the question.

The question is who has the highest upside

[2014olympicgold]

again missing the point...nevermind.

I would say Rocco Grimaldi hasn?t ?gone? yet. But, to me, you?re saying Debrincat isn?t much because if he was good, he would have made the jump to the NHL by now?

I?m saying with the way the CHL/NHL rules are, this kid wouldn?t be in the OHL right now if he could be in the AHL. If Marner wasn?t a leaf this yr (which was a big possibility going into the year) he?d be an OHL-er, does that make him not special? And it?s not like the Leafs could have called him up after destroying the OHL for half the yr. Same with Chabot.

Being in the CHL longer than 2 yrs shouldn?t be a gauge if you?re good or not. I get what you?re saying,? if you are in the CHL longer than 1 yr post draft, you must be ?not special??. I?m saying, there?s a bunch of examples saying that being in the CHL longer shouldn?t be a gauge.

[The Iron Sheik]

I would say Rocco Grimaldi hasn?t ?gone? yet. But, to me, you?re saying Debrincat isn?t much because if he was good, he would have made the jump to the NHL by now?

I?m saying with the way the CHL/NHL rules are, this kid wouldn?t be in the OHL right now if he could be in the AHL. If Marner wasn?t a leaf this yr (which was a big possibility going into the year) he?d be an OHL-er, does that make him not special? And it?s not like the Leafs could have called him up after destroying the OHL for half the yr. Same with Chabot.

Being in the CHL longer than 2 yrs shouldn?t be a gauge if you?re good or not. I get what you?re saying,? if you are in the CHL longer than 1 yr post draft, you must be ?not special??. I?m saying, there?s a bunch of examples saying that being in the CHL longer shouldn?t be a gauge.

No. I literally just said I didn't say that. You are not understanding anything I type. I did not say he wasn't good because he stayed in the CHL...that would make no sense. I said his record would have been beaten by other, better players had they stayed longer. Me saying he wasn't special was separate to that discussion. You can be special and play all four years of junior. I just don't think he is. He's an average prospect right now.

we have now gone back and forth with multiple posts because you either can't read or understand what I said and you're putting words in my mouth

[2014olympicgold]

Rare feat because the truly great players don’t spend 3 yrs in the CHL = “truly great players don’t stay in the CHL”.

Debrincat stayed in the CHL. But you just said “I didn’t say he wasn’t good because he stayed in the CHL”. You said the record thing after your first post so you back tracked, or just assumed we knew you were saying the record would be broken before you came out and actually said that.

That’s where I got “the words I put in your mouth”. Get where I’m coming from now? Anyways, like Guru said, the question was who has the highest ceiling, and to me it’s Debrincat, but he has a low floor too.

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Rare feat because the truly great players don?t spend 3 yrs in the CHL = ?truly great players don?t stay in the CHL?.

Debrincat stayed in the CHL. But you just said ?I didn?t say he wasn?t good because he stayed in the CHL?. You said the record thing after your first post so you back tracked, or just assumed we knew you were saying the record would be broken before you came out and actually said that.

That?s where I got ?the words I put in your mouth?. Get where I?m coming from now? Anyways, like Guru said, the question was who has the highest ceiling, and to me it?s Debrincat, but he has a low floor too.