who has more upside

[Jouko-Pouko]

Ok, name players that have posted back to back 50 goal seasons.

Surely 2 years in the OHL is normal, right?

Jason Dawe
Norm Milley
Jon Sim

I didn't want to list anyone too old because they would be from a different era. These three are all younger than Jagr. I'm sure you remember the kind of superstars these guys became?

[Mr. Guru]

If you didn't want to list anyone too old you could have went with Toffoli.

Would have fit the bill perfectly, no? Naming guys from the 80's and 90s lol. The era of Daigle, Berard, Phillips and Stefan etc. were all first overall picks.

Over the last decade or so I only know of Toffoli getting back to back 50. Anyone else?

What about 100 in 2 seasons? Tavares for sure, who else?

What about .82 goals per game in the OHL?

Pretty remarkable. Highest upside. Biggest gamble.

[VintageVibe]

Upside:

Debrincat
Brown
Boeser
Sprong

Likelihood of reaching said upside:

Boeser
Brown
Sprong
Debrincat

[Jouko-Pouko]

If you didn't want to list anyone too old you could have went with Toffoli.

Would have fit the bill perfectly, no? Naming guys from the 80's and 90s lol. The era of Daigle, Berard, Phillips and Stefan etc. were all first overall picks.

Over the last decade or so I only know of Toffoli getting back to back 50. Anyone else?

What about 100 in 2 seasons? Tavares for sure, who else?

What about .82 goals per game in the OHL?

Pretty remarkable. Highest upside. Biggest gamble.

There's just no pleasing you. Is Toffoli then a special talent in your books? The guy with 0.61 PPG average in his NHL career and 58 points as his career high. I can agree that DeBrincat also has that kind of upside. But I wouldn't call Toffoli a special talent by any means, just a solid NHL player. The difference is that Toffoli is 6'1", 196 lbs and plays a solid two-way game. If he didn't have that NHL sized body and solid two-way game, I doubt he would have even gotten the kind of chances to succeed he got.

Like I said, DeBrincat's junior number aren't even all that special. His 1.66 PPG average equals to NHLe of 41 points. That's the same as 1.14 PPG in the AHL. Or 1.22 PPG in NCAA. And Boeser has 1.34 PPG in NCAA. So the numbers are actually saying that Boeser is better. Numbers are definitely not everything but even they favor Boeser. And DeBrincat actually started his junior career a year later than most players do, so his first year numbers are higher than usual because of that.

Tavares started in the OHL as a 15-year-old, so his PPG average is only 1.75. But if we ignore his 15-year-old season, his average was 1.96. And that didn't include him playing there as an 19-year-old. Connor McDavid also started as a 15-year-old but if we ignore that, his PPG was 2.13. Mitch Marner scored 2.02 PPG during his final two OHL years. Patrick Kane only played one year in OHL but scored 2.50 PPG during that time as a 18-year-old. So the actual special talent can usually produce around 2 points per game in the OHL. DeBrincat's 1.66 just isn't up there with the real talent. His numbers are definitely good but people seem to be overvaluing them a bit.

By the way, Dylan Strome without his 16-year-old season: 1.96 PPG. People are down on him because he doesn't play in the NHL yet but his junior numbers are remarkable. He is the current benchmark for special talent in the OHL, and DeBrincat just isn't there even though they play on the same team.

[Mr. Guru]

Sure Id call Toffoli a special talent. I guess leading your team in goals in your third 'full' NHL season isn't special?

I guess where we differ is what we determine to be a special talent.

Will Debrincat be as good Tavares, McDavid, Marner and other top 5 NHL picks? No, probably not. Those guys are superstars in the making.

I think Debrincat has a higher upside than Boesser (who I think also has a high upside) but unfortunately there is no way to prove this.

All I know is Debrincat has put up points (and big points) in every league he has played in. He is shifty with a great release that seems to find the open space.

Will be interesting to keep on eye on him in Rockford later this season.

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Sure Id call Toffoli a special talent. I guess leading your team in goals in your third 'full' NHL season isn't special?

I guess where we differ is what we determine to be a special talent.

Will Debrincat be as good Tavares, McDavid, Marner and other top 5 NHL picks? No, probably not. Those guys are superstars in the making.

I think Debrincat has a higher upside than Boesser (who I think also has a high upside) but unfortunately there is no way to prove this.

All I know is Debrincat has put up points (and big points) in every league he has played in. He is shifty with a great release that seems to find the open space.

Will be interesting to keep on eye on him in Rockford later this season.

[The Iron Sheik]

Mentioning Marner with Tavares and McDavid (actual superstars) is the reason why it's impossible to have debates with people on this site.

[Jouko-Pouko]

Sure Id call Toffoli a special talent. I guess leading your team in goals in your third 'full' NHL season isn't special?

I guess where we differ is what we determine to be a special talent.

Will Debrincat be as good Tavares, McDavid, Marner and other top 5 NHL picks? No, probably not. Those guys are superstars in the making.

I think Debrincat has a higher upside than Boesser (who I think also has a high upside) but unfortunately there is no way to prove this.

All I know is Debrincat has put up points (and big points) in every league he has played in. He is shifty with a great release that seems to find the open space.

Will be interesting to keep on eye on him in Rockford later this season.

Well, yeah. If 58 points is a special talent for you, then that's definitely a big difference between the two of us. When I think of special talent, I think 70+ points for sure. Evander Kane also lead his team in goals in his 3rd season. Not a special talent in my books. The same with Brandon Saad. Nail Yakupov actually lead his team in goals in his rookie season.

What really got under my skin was when you said that DeBrincat has higher upside "for sure". There's just nothing supporting that as a fact. You can definitely think he has higher upside and that could be even true. But Boeser's numbers right now are better than DeBrincat's if we use NHLe to level the playing field between different leagues. Does that mean Boeser will definitely be better? Of course not. I don't mind people saying their opinion even if they don't agree with me. I just don't like it when people state things as facts without anything to support it.

You seem to be placing a whole lot of value on the fact that he scored 50 goals both years. Let's say 4 of his shots didn't go in but ended up creating rebounds which gave him an assist. His point totals would remain the same but now he would have 49 goals each year. Would he then be a lesser player because of that?

Let's look at some other recent 50 goal scorers from OHL:
2012-2013: Reid Boucher with 62 goals and Vincent Trochek with 50
2013-2014: Dane Fox with 64 goals
2014-2015: Joseph Blandisi with 52 goals
2015-2016: Christian Dvorak with 52 goals, Andrew Mangiapane with 51 and Michael Amadio with 50

So it's not like people don't score 50 goals in the OHL. Two or three years in a row is less likely to happen because players get injured and don't always get to play 2-3 years on a good team with good players. Like I said, DeBrincat has had the good fortune of playing on the same team with Dylan Strome. Even when they're not playing on the same line, having a real superstar on your team definitely helps. From that list, Trocheck is a good NHL player and Dvorak is a very interesting prospect. But I doubt anyone is giving even them any magical 80+ point upside. Maybe not even 70+.

At the WHL side, Oliver Bjorkstrand scored two 50 goal seasons in a row recently. He's struggling to adjust to the NHL level even though he's 5" taller than DeBrincat.

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Mentioning Marner with Tavares and McDavid (actual superstars) is the reason why it's impossible to have debates with people on this site.

Marner was definitely a superstar in junior hockey. That doesn't mean he'll do the same at the NHL level but when thinking about recent junior superstars, he's definitely on that list.

[Mr. Guru]

30+ goals before your 24th birthday in the NHL is nothing to sneeze at.

That's pretty rare. Pretty special.

I place a lot of value that Debrincat has 0.8+ goals per game. That is pretty significant. Pretty rare. Pretty special.

I don't read too much into NHLe, it's a nice quick metric, but, it's burned me in the past and aren't they both similar anyway? Within 3 points or something?

Didn't Boeser have Schmaltz with him last year in North Dakota? One could argue Schmaltz is better than Strome. Jost too? Hmmmm

Boeser not having as successful of a year without Schmatlz. Pre injury.

Im not saying Debrincat hasn't had some talented teammates. McDavid, Strome, Raddysh....but he keeps chugging along. Hard to ignore.

For sure the highest upside

PS) Nice back and forth. Its rare to find posters who keep it respectful around here.

[Jouko-Pouko]

30+ goals before your 24th birthday in the NHL is nothing to sneeze at.

That's pretty rare. Pretty special.

I place a lot of value that Debrincat has 0.8+ goals per game. That is pretty significant. Pretty rare. Pretty special.

I don't read too much into NHLe, it's a nice quick metric, but, it's burned me in the past and aren't they both similar. Within 3 points or something?

Didn't Boeser have Schmaltz with him last year in North Dakota? One could argue Schmaltz is better than Strome. Jost too? Hmmmm

Boeser not having as successful of a year without Schmatlz.

Im not saying Debrincat hasn't had some talented teammates. McDavid, Strome, Raddysh....but he keeps chugging along. Hard to ignore.

For sure the highest upside

Nothing to sneeze at but nothing special. Most goal-scorers have their best goal-scoring seasons at 22 or 23, so it's actually a pretty common thing to happen. Looking at just last season, Forsberg, Saad, Jenner, Kucherov, Gaudreau and Galchenyuk also managed to do the same. Scheifele and Barkov were also on pace for 30+ goals. I'm optimistic that Boeser can join that group of players in due time but I don't see DeBrincat doing the same.

0.8 goals per game is very good. But does that mean he can score 50 goals in the NHL? 40? 30? I'm guessing between 30 and 40 as absolutely best case scenario. I still think it's 50-50 if he even becomes a full-time NHL player.

NHLe similar for both, yes. Boeser is slightly higher but not by much. I'm not really using it as an argument to say that Boeser has higher upside because of it. My argument is that Boeser's game translates to the pros better than DeBrincat's.

Schmaltz better than Strome? You must be kidding, right? No one in this universe can argue that. Boeser was better than Schmaltz last year. Strome has been better than DeBrincat every year. Case closed.

Boeser's so called struggles are more related to injuries this season in my opinion. Jost is not having a great season either; they need each other because there's not a whole lot of talent on that team besides those two.

[Mr. Guru]

Forsberg, Saad, Jenner, Kucherov, Gaudreau and Galchenyuk also managed to do the same. Scheifele and Barkov were also on pace for 30+ goals.

Some pretty good company

[Mr. Guru]

Upside:

Debrincat
Brown
Boeser
Sprong

Likelihood of reaching said upside:

Boeser
Brown
Sprong
Debrincat

How did I miss this post.

I would just change Boeser and Brown in pure upside and would agree with you.

[Jouko-Pouko]

Some pretty good company

But that's Toffoli's company, not DeBrincat's. Like I said, I'm not expecting DeBrincat to join that group. But Boeser definitely could. Solid group but only a few of them are "special talent" in my books.

Besides, only Gaudreau and Kucherov from that group are below 6'0". Gaudreau is like the smallest player ever, and even he's 2" taller than DeBrincat. It will be a long and difficult road ahead for DeBrincat if he wants to make it to the NHL. Junior players are much smaller than NHL players, and NHL players can actually play defense which is something you don't see that much in junior hockey. I would expect a couple of full seasons in the AHL to start.

[VintageVibe]

How did I miss this post.

I would just change Boeser and Brown in pure upside and would agree with you.

Was debating just that. Had them both on the same level but had to make the decision.

I really like Boeser. He's going to be a good one very soon.

[VincentVega]

Mentioning Marner with Tavares and McDavid (actual superstars) is the reason why it's impossible to have debates with people on this site.

Didn't you hear? Marner's already a HOFer.