Saad for Nylander

[Axeman33]

I didnt read all the posts before mine, but I would go with Nylander over Saad. Saad is the better player today, and I do think isn't appreciated enough, but Nylander should be the better player going forward for keeper leagues like yours. I simply like his offensive upside more.

[You Don't Know Jack]

By the time Nylander proves his 'worth' he will be worth two Saad's.

Some poolies like to wait for production and then over pay. I prefer to gamble A BIT (especially with high end prospects, like Nylander) and shoot for the stars.

Two Saad's = 62 goals, 44 assists, 106 points, 466 SOG

Just playing around...

[Jouko-Pouko]

I think the biggest issue for Nylander will be opportunity. For him to get into the top 9, Lupul needs to be hurt (so call it 30 games a season almost guaranteed), and/or he or Marner needs to switch to their off wing. I could see him seeing limited (but at least sheltered) minutes. Saad will likely see at least 2 minutes more per game than Nylander this season, and with Hartnell on his way out, or at the very least looking to see more limited minutes, he'll probably keep the trend up next season as well. I could see Saad going 20+ minutes a game by 17-18, but Nylander likely won't see that kind of increase for at least one more season after that.

I definitely agree that Nylander has a higher ceiling, but for my fantasy team, I'd prefer giving myself the almost-guaranteed 50-55pts with upside for up to 65 over the next couple seasons. 100% agree though that beyond that Nylander will most likely be the better asset. Take from that what you will, I just generally don't play two+ years down the road, personal preference though, so if your rebuild/timeline means your window isn't until that third year, Nylander very likely is the better option.

Do you think anyone wants to take Hartnell when he has NMC, meaning he has to be protected in the expansion draft? Even if they wait a year, then he's a 35-year-old with 2 more years left on his contact at $4.75M. They're probably stuck with that.

Discounting Panarin, cause he's a weird rookie, when was the last time a rookie posted 60+ in a season?

At least MacKinnon did it. And that wasn't even so long ago. Nylander has way more experience than MacKinnon had. Maybe a little less skill but in rookie season, experience goes a long way.

[Slickricks]

Thanks for all the different inputs guys. I have decided to go ahead with it. I know that there is risks going with the unknown but I feel good with the risks since he will be my 10th guy in a play 9. I hope it works out but I'd say it's a gamble worth taking

[2014olympicgold]

If anyone thinks Saad is playing 20+minutes a game on average, I think you are shooting too high. He’s a 17-18toi guy.

And I rather take the chance on a 40-70pt guy than play it safe with a 50-55pt guy with the last keeper spot of a league where you keep more than 10.

[Ingolo]

Do you think anyone wants to take Hartnell when he has NMC, meaning he has to be protected in the expansion draft? Even if they wait a year, then he's a 35-year-old with 2 more years left on his contact at $4.75M. They're probably stuck with that.

I think that it'll cost Columbus either a prospect, or they'll need to eat part of that contract. But based on what I've heard over the past year or so, it really does seem like it's a move they're intent on making.

[Jouko-Pouko]

I think that it'll cost Columbus either a prospect, or they'll need to eat part of that contract. But based on what I've heard over the past year or so, it really does seem like it's a move they're intent on making.

Being forced to protect someone like him means you have to expose someone better. If they want to get rid of him, they need to add Milano along with him and take nothing in return. Maybe they do it so that they can protect Atkinson instead but that's a tough pill to swallow.

Even if they decide they're willing to give away Milano, there are only a couple of teams that can add a NMC player without exposing someone good. So the market is very limited, and because of that they might as well ask for more even.

I still can't understand why the Blue Jackets didn't buy out Hartnell this summer. It's a lot of money but now they're either losing someone like Atkinson to the expansion draft or Milano just so that they get rid of Hartnell. It's not easy being an NHL GM when you have real money involved.

[Ingolo]

Being forced to protect someone like him means you have to expose someone better. If they want to get rid of him, they need to add Milano along with him and take nothing in return. Maybe they do it so that they can protect Atkinson instead but that's a tough pill to swallow.

Even if they decide they're willing to give away Milano, there are only a couple of teams that can add a NMC player without exposing someone good. So the market is very limited, and because of that they might as well ask for more even.

I still can't understand why the Blue Jackets didn't buy out Hartnell this summer. It's a lot of money but now they're either losing someone like Atkinson to the expansion draft or Milano just so that they get rid of Hartnell. It's not easy being an NHL GM when you have real money involved.

Very true, especially when it's not unlimited money like Toronto, Chicago, or the Rangers have to throw around.

I definitely think there are one or two teams who have enough space to protect Hartnell, based on not having to protect anyone in that "rookie" bracket. Teams like Carolina and Phoenix come to mind, although I could be wrong as there are a lot of intricacies of the expansion draft that I'm not 100% confident I understand.

That brings to mind something I heard during the Subban trade though. I know his trade took place before his NMC took effect, but because of that it seems to have nullified the NMC entirely. Not sure if that would effect any other contracts at all, or if it happened that way for Subban because of the timing. Again, just not something I'm the most familiar with, but definitely something I'd like to find out about from someone more knowledgeable.

[Jouko-Pouko]

Very true, especially when it's not unlimited money like Toronto, Chicago, or the Rangers have to throw around.

I definitely think there are one or two teams who have enough space to protect Hartnell, based on not having to protect anyone in that "rookie" bracket. Teams like Carolina and Phoenix come to mind, although I could be wrong as there are a lot of intricacies of the expansion draft that I'm not 100% confident I understand.

That brings to mind something I heard during the Subban trade though. I know his trade took place before his NMC took effect, but because of that it seems to have nullified the NMC entirely. Not sure if that would effect any other contracts at all, or if it happened that way for Subban because of the timing. Again, just not something I'm the most familiar with, but definitely something I'd like to find out about from someone more knowledgeable.

If trade happens before player's NMC comes into affect, the receiving team doesn't have to honor it. That's what happened with Subban. It doesn't happen very often because players usually either have NMC or they don't. Exception is players who haven't reached UFA age yet (players cannot have NMC until after their RFA years). Subban was just about to enter into his UFA years. Of course some players only have NMC in the early years of the contract but that doesn't help. Once it starts, it's on until it officially ends. For Hartnell, it doesn't end until 2019 when his contract ends.

And yeah, a couple of teams have room for Hartnell but those teams don't really need Hartnell, so they would be just taking him so that they get that good prospect like Milano. But I'm not sure if those teams can afford to waste ~$10M on a player they don't need. Many teams have internal budgets, they don't spend to the cap.

[2014olympicgold]

Milano wouldn’t need to be protected by CBJ. He’s exempt from the draft. Wennberg and Jones are really the only 2 young players that a team would accept a trade with Hartnell for.

[Jouko-Pouko]

Milano wouldn’t need to be protected by CBJ. He’s exempt from the draft. Wennberg and Jones are really the only 2 young players that a team would accept a trade with Hartnell for.

I do not understand your point about Milano. I never said he needs to be protected. He's the reason some other team would take Hartnell because Hartnell needs to be protected.

[2014olympicgold]

I do not understand your point about Milano. I never said he needs to be protected. He's the reason some other team would take Hartnell because Hartnell needs to be protected.

With their NMC guys right now, I’d keep:
Forward:
Saad, Dubinsky, Foligno, Clarkson, Hartnell, Jenner, Wennberg. Leaving Atkinson as the best forward left out.
Defense:
Jones, Savard, Murray. Leaving Jack Johnson left out. He hasn’t done much, but if they keep him, then Savard/Murray are exposed.

Las Vegas takes 1 player from the team. So it’ll be Jack Johnson (or 1 of the other 2 D), or Cam Atkinson. Considering what some of the other D could be out there come expansion draft time, LV will likely go for Cam Atkinson/Forward from CBJ.

Who would you rather lose? Cam Atkinson, or Milano/Hartnell? If Trading Hartnell opened up a keeper spot for a guy of Milano’s caliber, then I understand trading Hartnell+prospect, but it’s not like trading Hartnell+Prospect will open up a spot for a high end player. If you do trade Hartnell, you’re opening up a spot for Atkinson. I’m saying Milano+Hartnell>Atkinson.

[Jouko-Pouko]

With their NMC guys right now, I’d keep:
Forward:
Saad, Dubinsky, Foligno, Clarkson, Hartnell, Jenner, Wennberg. Leaving Atkinson as the best forward left out.
Defense:
Jones, Savard, Murray. Leaving Jack Johnson left out. He hasn’t done much, but if they keep him, then Savard/Murray are exposed.

Las Vegas takes 1 player from the team. So it’ll be Jack Johnson (or 1 of the other 2 D), or Cam Atkinson. Considering what some of the other D could be out there come expansion draft time, LV will likely go for Cam Atkinson/Forward from CBJ.

Who would you rather lose? Cam Atkinson, or Milano/Hartnell? If Trading Hartnell opened up a keeper spot for a guy of Milano’s caliber, then I understand trading Hartnell+prospect, but it’s not like trading Hartnell+Prospect will open up a spot for a high end player. If you do trade Hartnell, you’re opening up a spot for Atkinson. I’m saying Milano+Hartnell>Atkinson.

That's why I said it's a tough pill to swallow and not guaranteed that Saad's minutes will go up. The only way someone takes Hartnell is if they get a player like Milano. So apparently I agree with you entirely.

[2014olympicgold]

That's why I said it's a tough pill to swallow and not guaranteed that Saad's minutes will go up. The only way someone takes Hartnell is if they get a player like Milano. So apparently I agree with you entirely.

Lol, I took the long road to say I agree too I guess.

But personally I think if CBJ were to deal Hartnell, it would be with a prospect like Wennberg, or a Jenner. Someone who isn’t a free keep for CBJ. Or a pick.

But Saad isn’t getting any more minutes than he is now, 17-18ATOI guy. I think we’ve seen his max points range. 50-55, with the outside career yr of 60.

[Sulla]

At least MacKinnon did it. And that wasn't even so long ago. Nylander has way more experience than MacKinnon had. Maybe a little less skill but in rookie season, experience goes a long way.

3 years ago is decent lol but I guess the point I'm making is that it's the exception not the rule - when was the last time multiple rookies did it so with that, and changing the thread slightly, does Nylander lead all rookies in scoring this season?