Hey Dobs, radulov!

[captaincheat]

Dobber wrote:

He\'d be first round in my pools. With 275+ players already drafted...after Stamkos, Filatov and Purcell it\'s hard to see a lot of players to take over Radulov.

Rads still may not come if the KHL fights him on it. Or if the IIHF or arbitrator says something, etc etc.

Still lots of doubts...

Wouldn\'t a KHL fight have about as much weight as the NHL? He has a contract in BOTH leagues. This is a real mess. If Rads wants to come back, he will obviously be welcomed back with open arms by both the Preds and the league.

[Enapai]

I have been following the whole Radulov debate from a distance. I have never had him on any of my fantasy squads, so his departure had little immediate effect on any of my teams. I attempted to acquire him on the cheap a couple of times, but the asking price (usually a high draft pick or solid roster player) seemed too great.

With the way the KHL has been billed (as a league to rival the NHL) losing Radulov would seem to be a huge blow in their attempts to attract other high end talent from the NHL. Perhaps this was a stab in the dark to negotiate a better transfer agreement that kind of blew up in their face, but if a mid-range talent cant be wooed back to his homeland for big bucks, I foresee a pretty low risk on worries of bigger stars in the prime of their careers taking the plunge. Seems a slap in the face of the KHL that Radulov is apparently complaining about rink and crowd sizes.

Just some of my thoughts.

[fzusher]

captaincheat wrote:

Dobber wrote:

He\'d be first round in my pools. With 275+ players already drafted...after Stamkos, Filatov and Purcell it\'s hard to see a lot of players to take over Radulov.

Rads still may not come if the KHL fights him on it. Or if the IIHF or arbitrator says something, etc etc.

Still lots of doubts...

Wouldn\'t a KHL fight have about as much weight as the NHL? He has a contract in BOTH leagues. This is a real mess. If Rads wants to come back, he will obviously be welcomed back with open arms by both the Preds and the league.

He has a contract in both, but the fact that one of them was signed earlier, was still in effect at the time of the signing of the second contract, and was not breached by the other side, means to me the second contract must be invalidated, at least until the first contract is fulfilled.

Think of it in these terms: you hire me to design a complex interactive multimedia display system for you which requires a unique skill set that only I possess in your market (so if I don\'t do the job it doesn\'t get done). Upon completing two thirds of it, I inform you that I have now signed a contract to do another project, and since I like that project more I will go work on that one and leave your project unfinished. You take me to an arbitrator. There\'s no way, to my mind, that an arbitrator would rule anything other than forcing me to finish your project before I take on any other project, because that\'s the only ruling in this case that can preserve the original intention of the parties signing the original contract in good faith - a fundamental principle guiding contract law.

[fzusher]

Enapai wrote:

I have been following the whole Radulov debate from a distance. I have never had him on any of my fantasy squads, so his departure had little immediate effect on any of my teams. I attempted to acquire him on the cheap a couple of times, but the asking price (usually a high draft pick or solid roster player) seemed too great.

With the way the KHL has been billed (as a league to rival the NHL) losing Radulov would seem to be a huge blow in their attempts to attract other high end talent from the NHL. Perhaps this was a stab in the dark to negotiate a better transfer agreement that kind of blew up in their face, but if a mid-range talent cant be wooed back to his homeland for big bucks, I foresee a pretty low risk on worries of bigger stars in the prime of their careers taking the plunge. Seems a slap in the face of the KHL that Radulov is apparently complaining about rink and crowd sizes.

Just some of my thoughts.

I don\'t think the KHL strategy backfired. They want a transfer agreement because, obviously, in a free marketplace, the NHL can do more damage to the than they can do the NHL (to take this summer as an example, think of it as a trade - Radulov for Filatov, Tikhonov, F Fedorov, Mojzis, and Krog; Do you do this trade if you\'re the one getting Radulov?). They didn\'t need this summer to realize that - they knew very well what their competitive position is. However, they want a transfer agreement with more parity than the previous ones, which were entirely skewed in favor of the NHL.

So they \'kidnap\' a \'hostage\' - young star-in-making, from a small market team (precisely the kind of team that needed the old transfer agreements - see below), and in fact, a team in trouble within its market and one that the NHL brass now have a vested interest in having succeed in its market. It\'s like kicking you in the inner thigh - it causes little actual damage, but it hurts like hell and is close enough to your vital organs to scare you, too. Its a soft spot.

Now, the point of this is to worry the NHL enough so that (1) they would start thinking there may be long-term benefit to a transfer agreement, especially to smaller, more precarious NHL clubs, even if there is little short-term danger for the NHL as a whole; and (2) they would be willing to acknowledge the European Leagues as something more than just a feeder system like the CHL or college (which is pretty much how the NHL treated them in past transfer agreements). We are now at the point were these two objectives seem to have been reached, at least, reached as much as possible without negotiations. The NHL is worried.

So now the hostage isn\'t needed anymore. Only, he was also turned into a symbol, a focal point of the conflict, especially at home. If the Russians cave-in and return Radulov as the NHL has thus far demanded, they again appear powerless. Enter arbitration. First, agreeing to arbitration is a concession by the NHL, which signals to the fans at home that they are capable of getting concessions from the NHL. Second, once the arbitrator rules (as I believe they can only do) in favor of the NHL, at least for this year, it can now be spinned not as simply giving-in to the NHL because the ruling came from a third party. I think the NHL realized that (or was made to realize that by go-between who know a thing or two about conflict resolution - like Paul Kelly) and in agreeing to arbitration essentially gave the KHL a way to save face at home.

And as for the point I left open above as to why transfer agreements are needed for small-markets rather than big-market teams: without a transfer agreement, to bring a European player over, a team must convince him to come, and if they want to play by the international market\'s rules, to pay the transfer fee (compensation) if they are still under European contract. Now think Nashville vs., say, Rangers or Detroit. Rangers or Detroit can pay the player more, pay a higher transfer fee, offer better hope of winning the cup, bigger and more fervent fan support, in the case of the Rangers a better city to live in, and so on. Transfer agreements, alongside the draft and entry-level contract systems, eliminated all of these advantages. The transfer costs were born by the NHL, teams and players could not choose the NHL teams they\'d be dealing with, and the playing field between the Nashvilles and the Detroits of the league was leveled. That was the second and no less important function of the transfer agreements (the first - to enable the pillaging of players out of Europe regardless of their contract situation there).

It\'s this that I think is worrying the NHL even more than the danger of the competition from the KHL - not what would happen if the Radulovs, Ovechkins, Malkins, Kovalchuks, Filatovs etc. played in Russia instead of the NHL, but what if they played in NYR, DET, and any Canadian team rather than in Nashville, Washington, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Columbus etc.

[fzusher]

One intriguing scenario that occurred to me as I was writing the previous posts:

While I\'m pretty certain an arbitrator would rule that Radulov should complete his contract with Nashville, the arbitrator could also rule that AFTER the completion of that contract, Radulov would then have to complete his KHL contract. For Rads himself this would be the worst scenario, unless he has a compensation clause in his KHL contract that the arbitrator allows the NHL to activate. This is sheer speculation on my part, but I think it is possible. I\'m not saying probable, but possible.

[habsrule]

Another factor to weigh into this is that after Vancouver, the next winter Olympics is in, uh, Russia...I don\'t like the chances of the NHL agreeing to let their players participate if the KHL pushes this. I know, 5 years away and all, but the decision would have to come much earlier than that, and the NHL is absolutely petty enough to stick it to the Russians for something like this. I would be very surprised if that fact has not been mentioned in some of the conversations between the NHL and KHL, or the IIHF...

I think he will be back if not to start training camp, shortly thereafter....

[Shoeless]

Amazing how the mood twists positive when the news seems good and how it is so negative when the news is bad. Line forms to the right for those who want to give me their money because they are banking on Rads being back in the NHL this season.

[elTIGREblanc]

I love having access to fzusher\'s brain... +1.

The NHL should hire him as a consultant to translate the actions of those crazy russian oil barrens.

[Shoeless]

Don\'t imagine Russian oil barons are all that crazy if they got to be oil barons. But yup Fzusher does a great job for us.

[doulos]

Dobber snagged Radulov in the Expert Draft last night, so he must be listening to Fzusher as well!

[Shoeless]

Might be okay if that league has a reasonable sized bench and he didn\'t grab him too early. He is still waiting to go over 70 points and if he comes back he does it with a team he stiffed - not likely going to be very cool.

[mister_mcgoo]

I think there\'s one more option that Fzusher hasn\'t presented. Assuming the arbitrator rules in favor of the Preds for having the pre-existing contract you have to imagine the Preds are still pretty pissed off the way he jumped ship on them. So now they\'re stuck with a guy who the fans are going to boo (all 4000 of them :laugh: ) his teammates are going to shun as a deserter, he\'s all but useless as a bargaining chip for trades because any other team can rightfully say \"well we\'d be taking a HUGE risk that he pulls the same thing again\" which devalues him significantly. Its kind of a lose-lose situation for the Preds and what they would most want would be to try and make the most out of it as possible so I think its a real possibility that they turn around and sell his rights to the KHL for a few million and then as Fzusher notes, Rads is really screwed then cause he now has to honor his KHL contract.

[fzusher]

Mcgoo,

The NHL won\'t let them do that, as it has been adamant thus far to not allow any \'official\' money-for-player moves by individual teams - in fact, this might even be in the CBA (I know the prohibition on cash compensation in trades between NHL teams is). If the precedent it set, what\'s to prevent to Leafs and Rangers from then turning and \'buying\' a European player.

I don\'t think the market is so bad for him right now - especially with teams who have experience and confidence in handling Russians, and especially if the decision comes very soon, before teams need to be under the cap.

I could see, for example, a team like the Devils dangling Gionta for him, though they might need to take a bit of salary (Radek Bonk for Mike Rupp?) back, depending on what Nashville\'s own spending ceiling is. Still, it would save the Devils enough cap to make a D move.
An offer involving conditional picks (1st rounder in 09 conditional on performance, 1st rounder in 10 conditional on resigning) could also help teams to land him.

[mister_mcgoo]

the \'official\' part is what gives me pause...that and the fact that this isn\'t exactly a typical situation. I\'m just trying to envision a scenario where everyone gets to save face and everyone gets a return on their investment and that seemed like it would do the trick

[ultrawhiteness]

good god fzusher, i hope you\'re a lawyer or politician or something. if i find out you\'re a bean counter or a plumber or something, i\'ll be pissed.

can\'t decide if i like your breakdown because it was well thought out or if i like it because it\'s good news, hah.