Hey Dobs, radulov!

[ddp]

I\'m so tired of this story but the guy has soooo much potential...hard to just drop him.

My question to you is, you raise the chances from 5% to 10% only? how come? From reading what you wrote this morning of what you heard, I thought for sure your % would have jumped to 50%. is this you not trying to jump to far?

Like is it true you think? radulov wants to now come back to the NHL? cause of small arenas...etc

and last question: because of nashville suspending him, is he able to come back and play lets say to start the season if he were to chose?

[repenttokyo]

nashville can unsuspend him any time they choose.

[DarthVain]

Great. I have to decide to protect or drop Rads by tomorrow. Just great.

[miked]

drop him. re-draft him in the late rounds, if you really believe he will be back

[ddp]

miked wrote:

drop him. re-draft him in the late rounds, if you really believe he will be back

Cmon!? late rounds? even if he\'s not back or any further news, someone would take him in the first round. Its funny, I find either people pretend they think he\'s not that great or people think he\'s god. There\'s no in between with him.

I see his potential...after not given a heck of a lot of ice time and #1 PP...still scoring 25 goals...

I feel anyones pain that has to decide on him. Nothing would bug me more if I dropped him and someone drafted him in the first round.

[Steeler]

Depends on your league and what you think his general perception is. It a shame, but I had to release him due to the uncertaintly and he had the lowest possible salary. In my league, I\'d bet I can scoop him up mid to late if needed. For whatever reason, I drafted him in the last (22nd) round last year. The other owners in my league clearly value production over potential...

[miked]

dont get me wrong.. he is a great talent.. but first round? hes a first round talent.. but thats it... first off.. he probably wont come back to the nhl this year at least.. second off.. he is stuck in nashville where trotz will stick him on the second line and secondary power play... plus the fans probably wont be too happy with him and he will play out of his comfort zone and try to do too much.

im one of those guys who invested a lot to acquire radulov.. but im moving on.

[Dobber]

He\'d be first round in my pools. With 275+ players already drafted...after Stamkos, Filatov and Purcell it\'s hard to see a lot of players to take over Radulov.

Rads still may not come if the KHL fights him on it. Or if the IIHF or arbitrator says something, etc etc.

Still lots of doubts...

[fzusher]

Dobber and others are trying to temper expectations, but the reality of human nature is that it is likely at least one person in your pool would be reading this news and going \'great, he\'s coming back for sure\'. Whether that person is ahead of himself or not doesn\'t matter. What matters is they\'ll act based on that, and therefore, as you say, grab him in the first, or at the latest second, round. So the strategy of re-picking him in a late round won\'t work.

At the end of the day, it comes down to you gut feeling, but remember there are more than two scenarios here.

1) Stays in Russia.

2) Comes back to Nashville of his own will and full of drive, all is forgiven him immediately by teammates and coaches, and he has the breakout year everyone expects he\'ll have.

3) Forced to come back by an arbitrator to a team where players and coaches don\'t really want him there, or want to teach him a lesson; at the same time, though he wants to come back to the NHL, the issues that drove him out of Nashville still remain, and are exacerbated by the above behavior. So he\'s forced to comeback to a team that doesn\'t want him and where he doesn\'t want to be either. This scenario then has three variants:

3a) He stays this year in Nashville and has a terrible season.

3b) He gets traded mid season and revives himself, or gets traded early to a team with similar issues (low aspirations/budget constraints, defensive system, smallish fan base) and has a decent, but by his standards middling, season.

3c) He gets traded during camp to a team that knows how to handle talent like him, and he explodes like we all expect him to.

Personally, i\'d give these scenarios these percentages:

1 - 10%
2 - 17%
3a - 25%
3b - 30%
3c - 18%

Which means that I give 35% to the two scenarios (2, 3c) which would see him having a season that justifies keeping him or drafting him early, unless you are thinking beyond this year. But these are just my guesses, based on a whole host of assumptions about the mindsets of Rads himself and of players/coaches in Nashville that we can no more than guess at this point. For example, I have a very low opinion of how Nashville handled Radulov so far - I doubt he\'d have even contemplated quitting the NHL had he been developed by, say, MTL or NYR - and so have great doubts about their ability to get the best out of this now.

You may have a different set of assumptions and would give each scenario other probabilities.

Try this exercise on yourself and see what you get.


Oh, and yes, I see 90% chance of him coming back to North America. I just see no way for an arbitrator to not rule that he must honor his earlier contract first. That\'ll give the KHL the ladder they\'d need to climb down from their negotiations stance (i.e., telling fans at home they were forced to release Radulov). I believe the KHL won\'t want to fight it if its an arbitrator\'s decision because, for them, Radulov was pretty much a hostage they took in order to force the NHL to negotiate a new transfer agreement that will treat the Europeans with more parity. We are now at a point where it seems Radulov has become a block to such negotiations rather than a catalyst. But again, there are implicit assumptions in my argument here as well.

[ddp]

fzusher, your best stuff yet! thanks!

As for 1st round...I should have specified like Dobber we already have 16teams that kept 8 players...so Rads in the first round is a strong possibility. If rads was to play the entire year in russia and possibly renogotiate next year on coming back to NHL...I would drop him and say forget it even if someone else picks him up. I\'m about winning now. and our rules would play a big factor why I shouldn\'t bother.

However, this news is VERY interesting. The fact that dobber said NHLPA guy says that Rad Wants to come back now after talking with...(i\'m not quoting Dobbs) is great news.

[mapletreemarty]

So based on your scenerio\'s you\'re saying that there\'s a 90% that Radulov will be playing in the NHL this season???

[fzusher]

If I had to decide on this for a draft, i\'d be giving it 90% for him to play in the NHL next season, but only 35% to PLAY WELL in the NHL next season [edit: I meant this upcoming season]

But again, this is all based on personal assumptions that guide my reading of the situation, NOT on any extra information, so take that for what it is - a personal opinion/guess

[ddp]

Well or not...his value is still so high because of his potential and the potential situations that could arise. Like being traded to Vancouver where they have the need for some offence! (wishful thinking for my Luongo) or to a really good hockey market.

Next season? or THIS season?
haha...pfff Radulov...what a tool.

[mapletreemarty]

fzusher wrote:

If I had to decide on this for a draft, i\'d be giving it 90% for him to play in the NHL next season, but only 35% to PLAY WELL in the NHL next season

But again, this is all based on personal assumptions that guide my reading of the situation, NOT on any extra information, so take that for what it is - a personal opinion/guess

With what\'s going on I think hanging onto him for this upcoming season is the way to go... no need to hang onto S.Weber when I already have Phaneuf, time to update my signature.

Thanks for your thoughts Fzusher +1, plus I\'ve really enjoyed reading your thoughts on training camp announcements, keep up the great work

[fzusher]

ddpdaver wrote:

Next season? or THIS season?
haha...

Good spot. Corrected above.