Sportsnet Top 15 UFA's - Predictions

[olafson1393]

Sportsnet published their top 15 upcoming UFA's here

I've made my own predictions for where they end up and how much they get for how long. I want to know what everyone else thinks. Either single a few out or do the whole list. Give me your thoughts on my predictions and others! Totally a crap shoot in most cases, I'm just interested in the arguments towards some guys ending up in unexpected places - mainly the guys on the list that don't get so much attention in the forum.

*** Rules - 1 player -> 1 team -> 1 contract *** Make it interesting, (i.e. no "Ward to either Calgary or Toronto for 3years at 3m")

Stamkos - Montreal 7 years @ 10.75m
Totally not taking into account the particulars when it comes to the cap, just more or less assuming they'll find a way to make it happen if it doesn't already fit. that is the case with some of my other guesses as well. Montreal obviously needs some help and a bit of a longer term solution rather than a short term gamble. If it ever worked out it would be a big step in sharpening that roster.

Backes - Anaheim 3 years @ 4.75m
A bit of a raise for Backes, not much though. Looks like Anaheim has some room in the cap, though not entirely that much. Might require some shuffling to make it happen, but it would bolster their top 9 for sure, also fits with their demographic quite evenly, not sure if that's a good thing though.

Okposo - Nashville 7 yeas @ 6.75m
I think its a slight overpayment, but I still think its bound to happen, no matter who its from. Another I thought (and I know this is against the rules of one team, but I still chose Nashville) I had was Columbus picking him up for the same, but I think they'll be looking for someone down the middle to replace who they lost to Nashville

Lucic - Edmonton 6 years @ 6.5m (Unless Edmonton makes a trade for Kreider/Nash)
Lucic would obviously a fit in Edmontons top 6, sounds like he wants to stay in LA though so I think the Oilers should push the Rangers for one of their guys.

Ladd - Buffalo 4 years @ 4.65m
Very small raise for Ladd. Veteran presence to add in Buffalo when Legwand walks away (3m)

Yandle - Colorado 6 years @ 6.5m
Unless Oilers don't get Lucic and push for Nash/Kreider and the Rangers have cap space to sign him

Eriksson - Carolina 5 years @ 5.25m
I think this would be huge for Carolina next year. I think they're one of the most interesting teams in the league right now and this might be right up their alley

Hamhuis - New Jersey 3 years @ 5.5m
No offence to anyone from or a fan of Jersey, but I just feel like I might not get enough exposure to the team and anyone who ends up there becomes a second tier to what they previously were. At least over the last couple of years - aside from Schneider

Campbell - Rangers 1 year @ 3.25m
Assuming Yandle goes elsewhere

Russell - Edmonton 5 years @ 5m
Since Colorado gets Yandle. Edmonton might actually have a cap problem with this.

Boedker - Toronto 4 years @ 4m
I heard a lot of criticism for him this year. Think he takes a small raise and comes in and surprises in TO

Hudler - New Jersey 2 years @ 3.75m
In my head, he's the same guy that's ended up in Jersey the last couple of off-season's. Lots of cap room. not sure who else will take that risk

Reimer - Carolina 6 years @ 5.25m
Because he damn well deserves it. Fair backup in Lack. will play a healthy 55 games. Calgary would've liked him too, but he's got a long term shot in Carolina

Ward - Calgary 3 years @ 3m
Affordable for the transition. Hopefully doesn't work out quite as bad as Hiller

E. Staal - Florida 4 years @ 4.5m
Fair-ish salary, maybe a little high, but Florida might need to do some Toronto-esque IR work in order to make it happen

Vrbata (not one offer at the deadline) - 1 year @ 2.25m
Detroit takes a flyer to make up for losing the Magic Man

Thoughts?

[Goldendelicious]

I like your Lucic prediction. Something no one is talking about but makes a lot of sense. I would be surprised if he stays in LA and likely won't happen without a big discount especially with extension they just gave to Kopitar.

Here's an interesting one for Stamkos....New York Islanders.All the rumble has been around Detroit, Montreal and Toronto (Buffalo to a little extent as well) but here's another team that makes a lot of sense. May need to move out some salary but I could see them making a push as well.

[Axeman33]

Considering STL already offered Backes a 3yr deal for $5.5m per year (which he didn't accept at this point yet), I don't see him taking less money to go somewhere else.

[Eskimo Brother]

Not sure I agree with Anaheim going out and getting another Kesler, but I agree with most of the predictions. I like the Okposo fit in Nashville, but I really worry about the term and dollars he is going to get.
I do also like your point that Carolina has surprise potential next year.

[rataylor22]

I don't think Calgary has any interest in Ward

[olafson1393]

Goldendelicious - I'm pretty much just a big advocate for Toronto NOT signing with him... I'm a Leafs fan and I really don't like the position it puts them in 1. in terms of the cap, and 2. in terms of a roster spot for a potential breakout prospect.

Axeman - definitely a solid point, and I would have to agree with you. Didn't realize STL had made that offer. That being said, I think if that's what they're willing to pay I think they're better off looking elsewhere.

EskimoBro - I thought the exact same thing with the Kesler/Backes situation, for some reason still seemed like a fit to me. They might also be after a more cost effective option to replace what they thought they had in Hagelin (similar to Perron) Possibly Boedker or Vrbata who've got more experience out west.

rataylor - Calgary's in a tough spot with a decent goalie in the pipeline who is a hopeuful 3-4 years down the road. I suppose you wouldn't want that to deter you from the present which is what free agency is all about. Reimer would be their guy, definitely, I'm just not sure he'll go for the 3-4 year deal this time around. What are their other options? Trade for Niemi/Lehtonen? Interesting tid bit. Calgary finished the year with 3 of the 4 previously highest paid UFA goalies (Ramo3.8, Hiller4.5, and Backstrom3.4) If they're all in they're going to get in a bidding war on Reimer and I don't think that's a good idea when you have potential other options and one in the pipeline - even if you are looking for the NOW.

[butch]

if reimer pulls in 5.25 per we should all get a raise

[rataylor22]

rataylor - Calgary's in a tough spot with a decent goalie in the pipeline who is a hopeuful 3-4 years down the road. I suppose you wouldn't want that to deter you from the present which is what free agency is all about. Reimer would be their guy, definitely, I'm just not sure he'll go for the 3-4 year deal this time around. What are their other options? Trade for Niemi/Lehtonen? Interesting tid bit. Calgary finished the year with 3 of the 4 previously highest paid UFA goalies (Ramo3.8, Hiller4.5, and Backstrom3.4) If they're all in they're going to get in a bidding war on Reimer and I don't think that's a good idea when you have potential other options and one in the pipeline - even if you are looking for the NOW.

Calgary knows their entire season was sewered by bad goaltending. They are not going to risk that happening again next season. I think Reimer is a good goalie. I dunno what Calgary thinks of them.

But I'll peg the chances much higher at Calgary having one of MAF, Bishop, Andersen/Gibson, Elliot/Allen, Howard/Mrazek, than attempting to take a risk like Ward.

[olafson1393]

Calgary knows their entire season was sewered by bad goaltending. They are not going to risk that happening again next season. I think Reimer is a good goalie. I dunno what Calgary thinks of them.

But I'll peg the chances much higher at Calgary having one of MAF, Bishop, Andersen/Gibson, Elliot/Allen, Howard/Mrazek, than attempting to take a risk like Ward.

BAM! Now that's the kind of prediction I'm looking for!

I mean, not overly specific, but we all know those teams have somewhat of a starter logjam. I think Gibby will stick in ANA, Mrazek in DET, beyond that I really think the other teams need to either do some serious work to figure it out going forward or flip a damn coin. I think PIT will have a tough time getting MAF to waive for Calgary, though he should be jacked for something like that. Up until 2 months ago it seemed like the entire world thought Bishop was Tampa's guy. I've always liked Vas, so I think they've got to find a way to keep him. And St. Louis is a weird one, but I think Calgary would be most pumped to get Allen of any of the ones you listed. Fits the age window, price window, and he's probably still going to be a stud, especially with another strong D-core in CGY. Really interesting...

So all of that said, I've got to know, where do you figure Ward is going to end up? At the cottage?

[yougo]

No chance in hell that Backes signs in Anaheim. Especially at this salary, they are already overpaying Kesler.

Stamkos at MTL is really a great fit for both but as a Habs fan, I'll stay away from Stamkos. Especially if it's a 7 year contract.

I like Lucic to Edmonton.
Ward will probably find a suitor based on his past reputation but he deserves a minimum salary contract and proves he's still a NHL goalie.

Toronto are wayyyy to cap savvy and into analytics to sign Boedker or any UFA unless it's a below market value deal.

+1 for doing this.

[rataylor22]

BAM! Now that's the kind of prediction I'm looking for!

I mean, not overly specific, but we all know those teams have somewhat of a starter logjam. I think Gibby will stick in ANA, Mrazek in DET, beyond that I really think the other teams need to either do some serious work to figure it out going forward or flip a damn coin. I think PIT will have a tough time getting MAF to waive for Calgary, though he should be jacked for something like that. Up until 2 months ago it seemed like the entire world thought Bishop was Tampa's guy. I've always liked Vas, so I think they've got to find a way to keep him. And St. Louis is a weird one, but I think Calgary would be most pumped to get Allen of any of the ones you listed. Fits the age window, price window, and he's probably still going to be a stud, especially with another strong D-core in CGY. Really interesting...

So all of that said, I've got to know, where do you figure Ward is going to end up? At the cottage?

Add a second half to the "bold" prediction. Ward ends up as the backup to whatever team trades a starter to Calgary.

[LawMan]

Lots of well thought out posts in there. Going to comment only on the Edmonton stuff.

I really like the idea of Lucic to Edmonton. Don't forget Chiarelli is now in control of Edmonton, he has said many time he wants to get "heavier" which he partially achieved thru the minor additions of Maroon and Kassian but Lucic would be a more established and long-term solution there. It wasn't until Chiarelli was out of Boston that Lucic got dealt. If Edmonton doesn't get Lucic I could see them throwing some money at Backes for the same reasons as why they'd want Lucic.

Wideman - I'd rather Edmonton target Demers (age 27 vs Wideman's 33) first but Wideman could be a solid #2 plan. At 33 a 5-year deal could look tough right when the Oilers will need big money to sign McDavid's second deal. They will likely have to overpay a Right shot UFA D to get them in as the Oilers need 2 and I think they'll get 1 via trade.

[Crazy Joe Davola]

Overall a good list and reasonable destinations and cash. Although Reimer making 5.25 million for six years would be pretty terrible IMO. Far too many years for a guy who's never played more than 37 games in an NHL season.

Eric Staal to Florida doesn't really make sense for me either as they have Barkov/Trocheck/Bjugstad as their top three centres and their wings are fairly stacked up as well.

Brian Campbell heading to NYR makes a ton of sense if/when Yandle departs.

[Rodgort]

Sportsnet published their top 15 upcoming UFA's here


Stamkos - Montreal 7 years @ 10.75m - Could make sense, but I just don't see MTL doing it

Backes - Anaheim 3 years @ 4.75m - No they have Kesler tied up to a massive deal and an internal budget with many RFA's

Okposo - Nashville 7 yeas @ 6.75m - I actually like this one, but they they need a C more

Lucic - Edmonton 6 years @ 6.5m (Unless Edmonton makes a trade for Kreider/Nash) - maybe, minus the trade. But then they'd have 3 big slow wingers

Ladd - Buffalo 4 years @ 4.65m - Pretty sure he wants a $5M+ deal

Yandle - Colorado 6 years @ 6.5m - Doubt it with Roy there wanting his big tough dmen

Eriksson - Carolina 5 years @ 5.25m - like this

Hamhuis - New Jersey 3 years @ 5.5m - Not moving East, also Devils don't need him IMO

Campbell - Rangers 1 year @ 3.25m - I think Campbell will want a couple years but this could make sense

Russell - Edmonton 5 years @ 5m - Lol, YES!

Boedker - Toronto 4 years @ 4m - He will wants $5M+ range too, when has a recent UFA been in his prime at 26?

Hudler - New Jersey 2 years @ 3.75m - Not in the plan, but a possibility

Reimer - Carolina 6 years @ 5.25m - Stigma on Riemer is he is not a #1, so I do not think any team signs him to #1 $$$ or term

Ward - Calgary 3 years @ 3m - Poor CGY if this happens

E. Staal - Florida 4 years @ 4.5m - Possibly with the ADV stat people taking over, but they still have that awful Bolland contract to deal with first

Vrbata (not one offer at the deadline) - 1 year @ 2.25m - Smart

Thoughts?

MY TURN!!!
Stamkos - TOR - 8 years @ $10M
Going with the rumour mill here, and I think if Stevie-Y knows he can't resign him to a discount he will move him to a team so he can get an extra year.

Backes - MTL - 4 yrs @ $5M
MTL will want size down the middle even though his is a declining asset.

Okposo - MIN - 7yrs @ $6.5M
Buy out Vanek and move pominville

Lucic - Vancouver - 6yrs @ $6M
Benning is hilarious and would do this

Ladd - BUF - 4yrs @ $5.5M
Would be a solid addition.

Yandle - BOS - 5yrs @ $5.25M
BOS needs a dman like him (I know they have Krug but the rest of their d can't move the puck like Yandle)

Eriksson - FLA - 4 yrs @ $5M
I think he could fit right in on L2

Hamhuis - Dallas - 2yrs @ $4M
Wants to be on a competitive team, stays in the west, helps out Dallas' defense

Campbell - Florida - 2 years @ $3.5M
With how good they were last year I think he wants to stay and I believe both his teammates and management (new and old) love him

Russell - Colorado - 5yrs @ $5M
Roy wants big dmen, but he is a tough dman who blocks shots, so they'll throw money at him.

Boedker - New Jersey - 6yrs @ $5.5M
A little overpaid but is a UFA in his prime and can help the Devils with scoring next season, possibly speeding up the rebuild

Hudler - NYI - 2 yrs @ 3.25M
Okposo leave, they sign Hudler to a short term deal. Can help their PP and depth scoring

Reimer - Calgary - 2 yrs @ $3M
Cap room and a very good goalie that gets undervalued

Ward - Swiss League - 1 year @ 2M Euro's (or whatever swiss currency is)
NHL teams wake up and realize he is not good anymore. Or a team signs him cheap as a back up

E. Staal - NSH - 4 years @ $4M
They need a C and he is available, Riberio is done there I think.

Vrbata - Chi - 1yr @ $2M
Cheap signing for his chance at the cup

[Mr. Guru]

Here's an interesting one for Stamkos....New York Islanders.All the rumble has been around Detroit, Montreal and Toronto (Buffalo to a little extent as well)

Lots of specualtion of Stamkos heading to the big Apple too.

Rangers, I think, should be pretty high on the list.