Fantasy Hockey - Luck vs Skill?

[jatz]

While this would probably be very simple to create, I would doubt that it would actually be any better than a decent fantasy GM. In my opinion, recent performance and "hot streaks" have no bearing at all on future performance. I have never read a statistical analysis on this for skaters but I am pretty sure I saw this point made by someone who crunched the numbers for goaltenders. I would imagine that skaters would show the same trend.

Do you really think that Erik Haula's current 9 game point streak makes it more likely that he's going to get a point toinght? I would say the exact opposite is true. I think the fact that he has 10 points in his last 9 games makes it less likely that he's going to get a point tonight since regression to his mean is going to happen at some point.

Don't jynx me. I needed to pick him up for the injured Trocheck.

[Goldendelicious]

Skill gives you a chance to win every year. Luck can make the difference between first and third.

This 100%...skill is more important for drafts, free agency and trades but even those can't help the inevitable...injuries. You can draft the slickest team, make great trades, but when it comes time for playoffs, single elimination, if the injuries pile up at the wrong time, you're toast.

Case in point in a new 20-team dynasty draft this year, team was top 3 and tops in pretty well every single category thanks to good drafting, trading and pickups. By the last week of our regular season, I had 7 injuries on my roster to go into playoffs...of course lost in the first round to a team that I could of easily dominated

[Instant Karma]

While this would probably be very simple to create, I would doubt that it would actually be any better than a decent fantasy GM. In my opinion, recent performance and "hot streaks" have no bearing at all on future performance. I have never read a statistical analysis on this for skaters but I am pretty sure I saw this point made by someone who crunched the numbers for goaltenders. I would imagine that skaters would show the same trend.

Do you really think that Erik Haula's current 9 game point streak makes it more likely that he's going to get a point toinght? I would say the exact opposite is true. I think the fact that he has 10 points in his last 9 games makes it less likely that he's going to get a point tonight since regression to his mean is going to happen at some point.

I'm not arguing (nor am I interested in arguing) the relative effectiveness of the practice of hot-swapping players.

Without question you could recount cases where it would not be effective. One can find anecdotal evidence where any method used to obtain some solution comes up with an incorrect answer. That's where the element of randomness or luck comes in.

I'm not saying that I could write a program to do it flawlessly, what I'm saying is that I could write a program which would approximate the same level of success as doing it manually because it's a relatively straightforward process.

What I'm arguing here is that it's not a practice that should be lauded as skill, when in reality it amounts to mundane data-crunching.

I'm trying to highlight the difference between what is actually skill and what is merely effort.

[chuckcouples]

Then we are on the same page and I like your point about skill vs effort. Streaming players all year long is definitely not skillful.

[Daydream Nation]

Skill got me to the playoffs with excellent teams that were contenders for the title. Luck got me beaten in both matchups when my players underperformed and his overperformed.