Fantasy Hockey - Luck vs Skill?

[Pargo]

How do people feel about their outcomes in fantasy hockey at the end of the season? Do you think it is mostly luck, or is there skill involved? I'm pretty sure most of you guys are like me and put a lot of time and consideration into researching what we feel are our best player options, but it can all blow-up so quickly. IMO, I think it's around 60% luck, 40% skill/research.

For example, I thought I drafted a pretty good team for a league with only 5 waiver moves per year. I was 1st place 2 weeks ago, but here's the list of injuries that have come up for my fantasy team in the past 2 weeks that has dropped me back 43 points behind 1st place (in a points only league)... Is this just bad luck? It just feels like I wasted so much time this year thinking about my team.

- Seguin out with achilles cut.
- Crawford out with "UBI".
- Saad was out and I replaced him with RNH and he gets a concussion.
- Stralman breaks his leg.
- Klingberg and Sharp were DTD for 6-8 games.

To top it off most of my players have gone extremely cold to end off the season.

[marsid6687]

I think of it as an equation: skill/research=luck/choices. Just like real life sports, your studs have to perform at their peak & you have to have some second tier help, and just like your case, you team has to remain healthy plus you have to somehow make the right choices on who to play on those heavily scheduled nights.

[butch]

Crawford , Seguin are hurting alot of fantasy teams right now .

I suspect your league is in playoffs by now which is usually a bit of a crap shoot for h2h anyways wheras roto or points only leagues the injury impact could be less severe .

[finminer]

There's certainly an element of luck, especially when it comes to H2H, where the playoffs are concerned. Which is why I prefer rotisserie scoring - the best team over the season wins, not just a team that gets hot or has luck at the end. League setup can also determine how much luck is involved. I prefer a lower number of stat categories (no more than 12 or so), where you can have more influence on your team's performance by targeting players who can help you in weak areas. If you have too many stats, then the influence you have is more watered down. The luck element also gets magnified if you have fewer active player positions (which is why I hate fantasy football). Also, if you are in an active league with lots of trading, there is a lot of skill involved in negotiating.

[pmorrow]

When I win, skill. When I lose, luck.

[newfcollins]

It's like poker. Luck is always a factor when you look at any specific hand, but over the course of years, skill will always win out in the long run.

There are things you can look out when it comes to fantasy hockey to negate that luck. I wrote a top 10 list earlier this year on worst second-half players. I had Seguin as number 10 on that list. Here were the numbers I wrote and a little portion of the blurb:

2014-15: 37 points in the first 40 games (1.18 PPG), followed by 30 in 31 (0.97 PPG)
2013-14: 41 points in the first 42 games (0.98 PPG), followed by 43 in 38 (1.13 PPG)
2012-13: 19 points in the first 22 games (0.86 PPG), followed by 13 in 26 (0.50 PPG)
2011-12: 36 points in the first 36 games (1.00 PPG), followed by 31 in 45 (0.69 PPG)

Seguin has 53 points in his first 46 games. It's very easy to imagine Seguin's point-per-game pace dropping the rest of the way. It's already started as he has just three points in the last seven games.

Sure enough, Seguin's stats this year:

50 points in 39 games (1.28 PPG), followed by 23 in 33 (0.70 PPG)

Huge decrease, and Seguin has a history of it (four of the past five seasons now). Sure he got injured, but he was also probably one of the cold players you were also talking about. Is the cold streak luck? I don't think so. He has a pattern of it. It's up to you to decide what to do with it. That's the skill part.

[Shiva Blaster]

I think it definitely takes some degree of luck to win a fantasy championship, no different than real life. That said, I think it takes skill to consistently put yourself in a position to win it all year after year.

[ericdaoust]

Skill pushes the odds in your favor but never to the point where you're a slam dunk winner. Even stacked teams can fall victim to bad luck and not win the championship.

[DusterDave]

Luck plays a big role in fantasy. Skill is also needed to win a championship. But sometimes it just comes down to poor or wrong decisions. I'm in the semi-finals in a H2H league where you are aloud only 5 moves per week. Monday started me off trailing 11-0. Since I started off the week so poorly I decided to save my roster moves for the end of the week. My matchup was 8-3 this morning, with a full slat of games today and tonight. I have 2 remaining moves that I can use tomorrow while my opponent has already used all 5 of his. Tomorrow I have 5 man games + my 2 roster moves will equal 7 man games. I planned out my mid-week moves to be bottom heavy in man games for the week. My opponent only has 2 man games tomorrow. Alot of the categories are close in this matchup so I am very much alive but will need big performances from my big names guys tonight, and a bit of good fortune tomorrow from my adds. But again, whether it be bad luck or poor decisions, they happen. I'm in need of some assists this week. I decided to bench the ice cold Phil Kessel and he has a goal and 2 assists already in the 2nd period today. We can only do so much, the rest is up to the Fantasy Hockey Gods.

[DusterDave]

Pittsburgh beat up on Washington 6-2 last week. Kessel had 0 points and was a (-2). Benched him today because he's been useless lately. 1 G, 4 A, 2 PPP, 6 shots, (+3). Bad luck? This could very well be the difference in my semi-final matchup.

[snipshow101]

It's mostly skill. Hard to say this without it coming off as a casual brag, but I've finished no lower than 3rd in the last 10 leagues I've played in, I highly doubt that was due to luck.

That being said, in one of my leagues this year, I've lost Malkin, Crawford, RNH, Edler, Gallagher, Schneider, Turris, and Vrbata. I'm not blaming that on skill.

It's hard to quantify the exact % of luck vs skill. Basically it's all skill up until fantasy playoffs, then it's 50/50 luck vs skill. 50% who has the better team (skill) and 50% who has the healthier team (luck).

[ericdaoust]

Skill gives you a chance to win every year. Luck can make the difference between first and third.

[StuntMan12]

Mostly skill. You have to get lucky at times though. Fluke injuries can brutalize your team and has happened to me a few times.

[zeptowl]

Depends on the style.

H2H is more luck heavy while rotisserie benefits the person with the best excel skills.

[StuntMan12]

Depends on the style.

H2H is more luck heavy while rotisserie benefits the person with the best excel skills.

I use to never like H2H until a buddy of mine said H2H is just like real NHL hockey, if your team gets hot they win the cup, if it gets cold then you dont. Just like real NHL.