Points-only draft strategy - load up on D?

[Burgundy]

12-team, keep 6, points-only league (G=1, A=1, W=2, SO=3) and I think I have the best set of keepers and hopefully best chance to win this season. My keepers are Tavares, Benn, Hall, Johansen, PK and Price.

I'm picking 10th in the upcoming draft (no snake, so it's 10th each round) and I've been looking at the best teams in the league last year to see if I can identify a winning strategy but there was nothing obvious. The winning team went with forwards with 7 of his first 10 picks, 2nd place went forwards with 5 of his 10 picks, and 3rd (me) went with D for 4 of my first 5 picks.

I usually try to load up on D each season and it's worked out ok so far but I've never won the big prize. My reasoning has been that in a league where we start 6 D each week, defenseman that can put up 45-50+ are extremely valuable. The top D available in the draft are Josi, Hedman, Burns, Carlson, Weber, Letang, Klingberg, OEL, Giordano, Doughty, Yandle, etc. - so a lot of good talent. I'd say there are about 8-10 defensemen (almost) guaranteed to put up 50 points vs about 45 available forwards that are going to put up 50+.

Should I try switching things up and go for more forwards this year or stick with the focus on grabbing defense with my first few picks?

[PenguinHunter]

Defense first is always my strategy as well. It has worked for me. I have finished 1,2,1 in regular season the last three years, but only able to win playoffs once. I like grabbing the defense earlier, as long as not reaching too far for one. So I would say go with the same strategy, as its obviously one that you are comfortable with.

[Pengwin7]

Points only is all about relative difference.

Count the number of positions in play.
12 teams x 6D = 72D. Find out what #72D scored last year, say... 20pts.
12 teams x 12F = 144F. Find out what #144F scored last year, say... 40pts.

Whenever you draft... you are simply looking for the best NET gain.
50pt D vs. 65pt F... yeah, you take the D... he's +30.
40pt D vs. 65pt F... here, you take the F... he's +25.

Historically, I find that risers occur at each position at relatively the same rate.
Perhaps 20 new forwards each year rise above +40pts.
And about 10 new defense each year rise above +20pts.

In most drafts, the mix is usually F/D... a sprinkling of each... because usually the roster allocation is usually about 2F to 1D.
In 9F/6D leagues... yeah, I'd go D heavy.
I've seen 9F/4D leagues... where I'd go F heavy.

And the same theory applies to goalies... it's all relative to what you could snag off the waiver wire (i.e. "Last counting player at that position") at any given time in season.

Use this logic and mix in your own good projections for a player... and you're good to go!!!

[Samfolds]

Points only is all about relative difference.

Count the number of positions in play.
12 teams x 6D = 72D. Find out what #72D scored last year, say... 20pts.
12 teams x 12F = 144F. Find out what #144F scored last year, say... 40pts.

Whenever you draft... you are simply looking for the best NET gain.
50pt D vs. 65pt F... yeah, you take the D... he's +30.
40pt D vs. 65pt F... here, you take the F... he's +25.

Historically, I find that risers occur at each position at relatively the same rate.
Perhaps 20 new forwards each year rise above +40pts.
And about 10 new defense each year rise above +20pts.

In most drafts, the mix is usually F/D... a sprinkling of each... because usually the roster allocation is usually about 2F to 1D.
In 9F/6D leagues... yeah, I'd go D heavy.
I've seen 9F/4D leagues... where I'd go F heavy.

And the same theory applies to goalies... it's all relative to what you could snag off the waiver wire (i.e. "Last counting player at that position") at any given time in season.

Use this logic and mix in your own good projections for a player... and you're good to go!!!

Fantasy gold right there. This is absolutely the way to figure out your strategy for every league! If you are too lazy to do it, FHG will do that for you for a reasonable charge