(Article) Sneaky Players to Win Your Pool With - Part 2 Defensemen

[Crazy Joe Davola]

Hey all,

This is an article I had prepared for the main site, however there has been so much great content of late, that this won't likely be published in time for most drafts. So instead of letting it go to waste, I thought I would share with all of you! So without further adieu, here they are, some sneaky (and not-so-sneaky) players to help win your pool.

Sneaky Players To Help Win Your Pool
By: Cameron Robinson

When I was just a wee lad, it felt like summer could not get here soon enough. Those last few days of school seemed like an eternity. But then something strange happened; as soon as the calendar rolled over to July, it seemed the days went by far too quickly. Where had my summer gone?! September looms and with it, cold weather, alarm clocks and teacher’s dirty looks. However, it didn’t take long for me to heed my Dad’s advice on the matter. See he would always remind me that as summer closed, with it comes the greatest time of year. Fall brings us a brand new chapter for 30 NHL clubs and all their fans; it brings us MLB playoffs, NFL action and even some basketball highlights to fill in the last five minutes of SportsCentre. And for a lucky few of us, fall also brings our Fantasy Drafts.


If you’re anything like me, draft day is the pinnacle of weekend activities. It’s a time when your closest friends (and fantasy enemies) get together from wherever each individual’s lives have taken them, sit down, talk hockey, chat about life, chirp each other and the laughs are endless. It usually culminates with a headache and a greasy diner breakfast, and if I’m lucky I’ll be doing that every year ’til the day I die.


Now what happens between those welcoming high fives and Flo serving that Eggs Benny… is the pudding. If you have serious aspirations of winning, you need a strong draft. Blow your first round pick? You might as well start selling for next year already. Grab a couple absolute steals in the 7th and 8th rounds? Now we’re talking. With that in mind, here are a few sneaky players that can help you win your pool and the gain the respect, envy and glory that you so callously believe you deserve.

The Big Dogs - Players that are already fantasy studs just waiting to enter into that rare air of cornerstone pieces. Draft early or target them in trades. These guys are the real deal.

Kevin Shattenkirk (STL) - This elite producer will go early, but likely won’t have the same draft day juice of his high-producing counterparts (Karlsson, Subban, Burns). He was on a torrid pace last year before popping his groin. A healthy season should see 60-plus points and some serious Norris discussion. He has been the better of the two Blues defensemen when it comes to fantasy, but after this year he’ll be known as a top three D asset.
2015-16 Prediction: 14 goals 48 assists = 62 points


Tyson Barrie (COL) - Just like the advanced stats crowd predicted, Colorado had a down year. You can only survive on high shooting percentages for so long, eventually you’re going to need to possess the puck more than your opponents if you expect to win in the long haul. And lucky for them, Tyson Barrie is just the type of player who loves to hold onto the puck. He posted 53 points last year, so don’t expect him to be around long come draft day, but with an improved offence for the Avs, he could be in line to join the ever-elusive 60 point club.
2015-16 Prediction: 18 goals 40 assists = 58 points

Risers- These players may or may not be owned in your dynasty league, but they’re set to enter into the conversation as top assets. If they are owned, fret not, they would provide excellent targets to trade for, and you’ll get them cheaper than more established stars who will likely end up with similar points by years end.

Sami Vatanen (ANA)- Anaheim is blessed with an abundance of talented young defensemen and Vatanen is the most offensive of the bunch. Despite never hitting the 40 point mark, this gifted Finn is ready to explode onto the fantasy scene. Top PP minutes with Getzlaf and Perry and a healthy season will see him not only summit the 40 mark, but potentially the 50 mark as well.
2015-16 Prediction: 14 goals 34 assists = 48 points


John Klingberg (DAL) - The 23 year old Swede broke out in a big way last season scoring 40 points in 65 games. While the more astute GM’s will be all over this kid as a potential power play beast lining up on a high-octane Dallas squad, he likely won’t be targeted as a top 15 rearguard. Get your hands on him and don’t be surprised when he finishes with 50 points.
2015-16 Prediction: 11 goals 39 assists = 50 points

Fighting for a Chance- These are the players who should be available to draft in your dynasty league and are set to increase their fantasy values - whether thats from irrelevancy to fringe or fringe to impact player. Deep league should take notice.

Calvin de Haan (NYI) - This smooth skating, puck-moving defenseman has had his ups and downs early in his career. Sidelined for the entire 2012-2013 season with an injured shoulder, he is just now starting to scratch the surface of the potential the Isles saw when they drafted 12th overall in 2009. He hasn’t put up big numbers since his days in the OHL, but you could do a lot worse than taking a flyer on him late in the draft. He may very well find himself on the #1 power play with Johnny T as the season goes on.
2015-16 Prediction: 4 goals 27 assists = 31 points


David Rundblad (CHI) - Rundblad is an interesting player; he was regarded extremely high after a sensational 20 year old year in the SHL where he put up 50(!) points in just 55 games. He was moved from STL to Ottawa in what turned out to be the pick that St. Louis used to draft Vladimir Tarasenko (ouch). He has since bounced from Ottawa to Pheonix and finally to Chicago where he impressed in a bottom pairing role last season, scoring 14 points in 49 games. Rundblad is a puck-mover through and through and will have the opportunity to get second power play minutes this season. Chicago is a cap team, and they will need production from players like D.R. At 24 years of age, this could finally be the year that sees him put up fantasy-relevant points.
2015-16 Prediction: 5 goals 26 assists = 31 points



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So there you have it, an old Bauer duffle bag stuffed with players who could make you a Champion. Be sure to take some of these guys under consideration while your League’s Tacois still trying to draft Temmu Selanne in the sixth round. And speaking of Tacos, what a beauty Eddie Lack is!


Happy drafting folks.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Glad you shared this, and sorry it won't appear on the main site. The only one I take exception with is Vatanen, whose stats were padded by hot start (19 points in first 25 games) which proved unsustainable due to his PP scoring coming down to earth. And even despite the law of averages taking its toll, his 5x4 IPP was 81.0%, which was 4th highest among the 78 defensemen who played 100+ minutes at 5x4. If that had been even 66.7% (which was 20th), then his point total would've dipped by three, giving him a barely 0.5 points per game average which I think is more in line with how he'll produce this season (i.e., about 40 points).

[Crazy Joe Davola]

Thanks for the input Rizz! I agree that Vatanen was scoring at an unsustainable rate to start the season and that really propelled him into fantasy-relevancy. However I also see Anaheim having a far greater Powerplay this coming season. They were an atrocious 15.7%(28th in the league) on the year. With the talent they have in their lineup and the addition of Paul McLean as an assistant coach with a Powerplay focus, I predict they at least find their way into the middle of the pack. With that, Sami will man the point on that top PP and reap some solid rewards.

While I admit 48 points may be a tad high for him next year, I think he has the skill and surrounding talent to potentially get there.

[lektrix]

What about Myers, Leddy, Schultz who could be had for cheap / late rounds?? Some more underrated players.

[Crazy Joe Davola]

What about Myers, Leddy, Schultz who could be had for cheap / late rounds?? Some more underrated players.

While I didn't have those three, the original piece was slightly longer and one single piece. Word count restriction on the forums forced me to edit and omit players as well as make it two separate articles. The forward section of the piece has a few more underrated players.

Perhaps next time I'll focus on strictly out-of-left field type players. Thanks for the input!

[lektrix]

While I didn't have those three, the original piece was slightly longer and one single piece. Word count restriction on the forums forced me to edit and omit players. The forward section of the piece has a few more underrated players.

Perhaps next time I'll focus on strictly out-of-left field type players. Thanks for the input!

What are your thoughts on them now? We don't need articles to discuss fantasy info here

With so much room to grow and potential to be 40 - 45pt D men, are they really that out of left field ??

[Crazy Joe Davola]

I like Schultz. I think he's got the skills to be a big producer surrounded by that Oiler talent. However the pay day to Sekera may cut into his PP time if he doesn't grab ahold of that point spot (assuming they go 4 forwards). He's boom or bust at this point. If he doesn't take a leap he won't be an oiler next season.

Check out the most recent and very informative Cage Match involving Nick Leddy and Hampus Lindholm http://www.dobberhockey.com/hockey-home/cage-match/nick-leddy-vs-hampus-lindholm/
I think he's a 35 pointer on a plus team, so there's value there. But I don't see him taking that next step offensively.

Myers is an interesting one. He's behind Buff on the right side PP and Trouba is there to push for time as well. His numbers were strong in Winnipeg last year but I don't see more than 35ish. He has the potential still, because you can't teach his size, and often those monsters take a while longer to fully develop. If Byfuglien leaves after this season (or gets injured or suspended) and Myers finds himself on the top PP, then I'm very interested.

[jcairns]

62 points for Shattenkirk?

Um... I would bet everything I have he doesn't touch 60. Or 59. Or 58. Or 57. You might be able to convince me he could hit 55, but I wouldn't bet on that either. I'd expect low 50s. If you draft him for 62 you will be disappointed.

[The Bottlenecker]

I reacquired Barrie in the offseason, and would love to see him hit 60 points, but am expecting closer to 50 again. I don't know if this is the year Colorado turns things around, and their possession numbers won't improve that drastically so I am trying to remain optimistic just for him to get 50.

[Crazy Joe Davola]

62 points for Shattenkirk?

Um... I would bet everything I have he doesn't touch 60. Or 59. Or 58. Or 57. You might be able to convince me he could hit 55, but I wouldn't bet on that either. I'd expect low 50s. If you draft him for 62 you will be disappointed.

Hey there's the spirit! Obviously its far more fun to make bold predictions, and with that said, I do see Shattenkirk having the ability and surroundings to put up such a lofty point total. He was on pace for a 64 points last year before going down with the injury. Will he absolutely get 62 points? No sir. Could he? I believe so. I see Shattenkirk taking the next step into the elite point producers this season. He was operating at a 5.9 shooting percentage which is spot on his career average, toss in another year of development from Tarasenko, Schwartz.. and himself and it could be a recipe for big numbers.

If he gets 55, i'm sure any team who drafts him will be happy, but to me, he has a higher ceiling.

Love the input though!

[Crazy Joe Davola]

I reacquired Barrie in the offseason, and would love to see him hit 60 points, but am expecting closer to 50 again. I don't know if this is the year Colorado turns things around, and their possession numbers won't improve that drastically so I am trying to remain optimistic just for him to get 50.

Barrie is just scratching the surface of his potential. At age 24, he is ready to take another step forward in his development. While this might not be the year that Colorado turns things around completely, I do see them taking a step forward and challenging for a playoff spot. I expect better seasons from MacKinnon, Duchene and Landeskog as all three had down years. There's no way a team with this much talent should be 29th in PP percentage. Even a move towards the middle of the pack will yield additional points for Barrie.

An increase of 4-5 points from last year is within his grasp. Be excited about having a top point-producer from the backend and one that has years of production ahead of him!

[lektrix]

I like Schultz. I think he's got the skills to be a big producer surrounded by that Oiler talent. However the pay day to Sekera may cut into his PP time if he doesn't grab ahold of that point spot (assuming they go 4 forwards). He's boom or bust at this point. If he doesn't take a leap he won't be an oiler next season.

Check out the most recent and very informative Cage Match involving Nick Leddy and Hampus Lindholm http://www.dobberhockey.com/hockey-h...mpus-lindholm/
I think he's a 35 pointer on a plus team, so there's value there. But I don't see him taking that next step offensively.

Myers is an interesting one. He's behind Buff on the right side PP and Trouba is there to push for time as well. His numbers were strong in Winnipeg last year but I don't see more than 35ish. He has the potential still, because you can't teach his size, and often those monsters take a while longer to fully develop. If Byfuglien leaves after this season (or gets injured or suspended) and Myers finds himself on the top PP, then I'm very interested.

Thanks for your thoughts.

I know Sekera is new to EDM but isn't he there for defensive purposes, and not solely offense/PPP? I'd be concerned if J Schultz was not the top offensive dmen on a thin EDM line..

I like your cage match article with Leddy vs. Lindholm. However my question is, is Leddy not more offensively gifted than Boychuk and Hamonic? With all that offense on NYI someone's gotta hit 40-45 points...

I also wanted to ask you for your quick thoughts on M. Del Zotto (can he outperform Streit?), and how you would rank the rest of these seemingly "B" level D men in Kulikov, Campbell, Larsson, Severson, Spurgeon, R. Ellis, S. Jones....

[stotan]

Really enjoyed this article, thank you! Wondering your thoughts on Josi - would he fall into "The Big Dogs" category? He's improved each season, especially the last two (2014 - 40pts in 72 & 2015 - 55pts in 81). Do you see him continuing the trend?

[MarmotKing]

Good read!

[Crazy Joe Davola]

Thanks for your thoughts.

I know Sekera is new to EDM but isn't he there for defensive purposes, and not solely offense/PPP? I'd be concerned if J Schultz was not the top offensive dmen on a thin EDM line..

I like your cage match article with Leddy vs. Lindholm. However my question is, is Leddy not more offensively gifted than Boychuk and Hamonic? With all that offense on NYI someone's gotta hit 40-45 points...

I also wanted to ask you for your quick thoughts on M. Del Zotto (can he outperform Streit?), and how you would rank the rest of these seemingly "B" level D men in Kulikov, Campbell, Larsson, Severson, Spurgeon, R. Ellis, S. Jones....

I should clarify, that Cage Match was written by our very own Rick Roos (RizzeeDizzee). He spends countless hours on those articles, and they are a fantastic resource. He lets the statistical analysis make the decision on who wins the battle.

Sekera was brought in to be the Mr. Everything for Edmonton (or at least they are paying him as such). He has some strong offensive instincts, an when given prime PP time has produced decent numbers in the past (44 points in 2013-2014). I agree that Schultz should be the #1 offensive option from the backend however he has disappointed in the past and if he doesn't shine early, they will certainly look at other options on that top unit.. and I believe Sekera would get that first crack.

Leddy has teased fans and fantasy junkies for a few years now. He is such a smooth skater and owns a solid breakout pass, however he's yet to show that he can produce at a high clip. NYI has tons of talent for sure, but with the signing of Zidlicky, I believe Leddy will maintain his status quo of 30-35 points with a strong +/-. It appears to be scoring by committee on that Islanders backend, but I agree that he has more offensive capabilities than both Boychuck and Hamonic.

Del Zotto quietly had a good year for Philly and subsequently rejuvenated his career. He's still young and has loads of offensive potential, however I think Streit will out-produce him again this year. I like him to flirt with 40 however.

As far as the 'B' squad guys.. for this season and a purely offensive standpoint, I see them as pretty similar end results but if I had to rank them..:

Larsson
Jones
Severson
Ellis
Spurgeon
Campbell
Kulikov

I actually like Larsson to take some big steps forward in the coming years. Sadly he's stuck in the very offensively-void Devils organization, but he's a highly skilled player who is just figuring out the NHL game. He had a nice little stretch last season where he put up 19 points in 38 games between January and April. As well, when the Devils found a way to win, he was integral scoring 17 points in 25 games with a +22!

Jones is a beast in the making, but he's stuck behind two offensive beauties in Weber and Josi. He'll get his chance one day, but he'll have to suffer on the second PP for awhile longer. You can apply the same to Ellis (minus the beast part).