(Article) Sneaky Players to Win Your Pool With - Part 2 Defensemen

[Crazy Joe Davola]

Really enjoyed this article, thank you! Wondering your thoughts on Josi - would he fall into "The Big Dogs" category? He's improved each season, especially the last two (2014 - 40pts in 72 & 2015 - 55pts in 81). Do you see him continuing the trend?

Thank you for the kind words, it was fun to write and even more fun to discuss! Josi is an interesting one. I'm not sure he is poised to enter into the cornerstone category, but he's darn close. He is a sublime playmaker and makes the majority of the outlet passes when on the ice. While Weber may have the pedigree, its Josi who has the better offensive instincts.. just not the same cannon of a shot (but few do!). I'd say it may be difficult for Roman to improve too much further on that monster season he just had, but 55 point defensemen do not grow on trees. I would expect anywhere from 52-56 points this season, as Nashville continues to open-up offensively under Laviolette.

He's a fantasy stud no doubt, and could certainly prove me wrong and continue to ascend the ranks and join PK, Shatty and Barrie as the "non-EK' top Dmen, but I think he's just a touch below them in the Carlson, Burns, Yandle area. All great players to own!

[jcairns]

Hey there's the spirit! Obviously its far more fun to make bold predictions, and with that said, I do see Shattenkirk having the ability and surroundings to put up such a lofty point total. He was on pace for a 64 points last year before going down with the injury. Will he absolutely get 62 points? No sir. Could he? I believe so. I see Shattenkirk taking the next step into the elite point producers this season. He was operating at a 5.9 shooting percentage which is spot on his career average, toss in another year of development from Tarasenko, Schwartz.. and himself and it could be a recipe for big numbers.

If he gets 55, i'm sure any team who drafts him will be happy, but to me, he has a higher ceiling.

Love the input though!

Don't get me wrong, I liked the article! But that Shattenkirk prediction is a big outlier for me from the rest of the list.

The key thing you are missing is that he put up 25 PPP in 56 games last year - a pace of 37 PPP. Karlsson, the #1 D man last year for PPP, put up 30.
Shattenkirk was also on pace for 28 ES points, which would have been a career best as well. Even if we accept 28 ES points as his norm, we should expect a more reasonable 25 PPP (which would put him in the Burns-Subban range), bringing his point output to 53, which is right where I would peg him.

I just don't see any feasible way he ever gets near 62.

[drl33]

Dobber is really high on pouliot in Pittsburgh.

What are the odds he has a klingberg/vatanen season this year?

[Crazy Joe Davola]

Don't get me wrong, I liked the article! But that Shattenkirk prediction is a big outlier for me from the rest of the list.

The key thing you are missing is that he put up 25 PPP in 56 games last year - a pace of 37 PPP. Karlsson, the #1 D man last year for PPP, put up 30.
Shattenkirk was also on pace for 28 ES points, which would have been a career best as well. Even if we accept 28 ES points as his norm, we should expect a more reasonable 25 PPP (which would put him in the Burns-Subban range), bringing his point output to 53, which is right where I would peg him.

I just don't see any feasible way he ever gets near 62.

Great points jcairns, I agree that he is unlikely to produce 30plus PPP, however his even-strength points could continue to rise into the 30 point range. If he does, then 60 points is within reach. However, if Pietrangelo and him both succeed in even strength situations and thus take away from one another then 50-55 points will likely be Shattenkirk's home.

I just see a lot of Kris Letang in Shattenkirk. He is a pure offensive player with great wheels, a fantastic outlet pass and a strong shot that he can get through. If he takes a step forward in his shooting % to say, 7 or 8% that could also facilitate an uptick in production.

I'll concede that 62 will be difficult to achieve, but I like him to move into the elite category with PK just a notch (or two) before EK

Myself and any other owner should be satisfied with 50-55, but if i'm going to bet on a player reaching up into the 60 point territory, there aren't many players I would take over Shattenkirk.

[Crazy Joe Davola]

Dobber is really high on pouliot in Pittsburgh.

What are the odds he has a klingberg/vatanen season this year?

Like Dobber, I'm quite high on Pouliot. He's arguably the most offensively talented defenseman under the age of 22. I don't see a Vatanen or Klingberg-like season for him this year, as he'll be lodged behind Letang on the four forward PP1 unit in Pittsburgh and will likely play third pair minutes at even-strength. If i'm an owner, I wouldn't expect much more than 25-30 this year.

Now if Letang goes down for a long period of time, I'm sure Pouliot would get a chance to run with that top PP unit, although so would Maata. If that happens, his numbers could certainly spike. He's the heir apparent to Letang, but at just 28 years old, Letang won't be getting pushed out anytime soon.

He has 50 point potential, but he'll need the prime time opportunities to get there. Maybe in 3-4 years.

[lektrix]

Hey Crazy Joe Davola, what are your thoughts on M Del Zotto playing with Streit this year??

[Crazy Joe Davola]

Hey Crazy Joe Davola, what are your thoughts on M Del Zotto playing with Streit this year??

I mentioned Del Zotto a little earlier on in the thread but i'll expand on the original ("Del Zotto quietly had a good year for Philly and subsequently rejuvenated his career. He's still young and has loads of offensive potential, however I think Streit will out-produce him again this year. I like him to flirt with 40 however.")

I like Streit to remain as the go to guy on Philly's backend for offensive situations this season. While his age is of concern for some owners, his playmaking skills remain sublime. It's actually not a bad thing for MDZ owners either, as he's a solid mentor for the still young blue liner. I think Del Zotto will continue to round out his overall game and hopefully gain traction on the first unit power play before all the young studs - and there are a few of them in Philly's pipeline - come and take over.

Looking at the Flyers crop of defensemen on the way, I don't know if Del Zotto will be able to ever take a leap into the more desirable fantasy players to own, but he'd be strong additional as a #4 or #5 dman on your fantasy squad. Streit should flirt with 50 again this year if he maintains his health and would be the one i'd choose in a win-now or one year league.

[lektrix]

Thanks. How would you rank these D in a 1-year league?

Leddy
J. Schultz
Del Zotto
Larsson
Kulikov

[Crazy Joe Davola]

Thanks. How would you rank these D in a 1-year league?

Leddy
J. Schultz
Del Zotto
Larsson
Kulikov

I'd probably rank them as:

Schultz
Leddy
Del Zotto
Larsson
Kulikov

The caveat being that Schultz could be a 30 point guy or a 50 point guy, and because of that high ceiling I have him #1. The safest bet for points and strong +/- is probably Leddy. Him and MDZ are right there together. Not much separating them points wise.

I really like Larsson to take another step forward this year. If he gets PP1 time, he's a real threat for 30-35

Not a huge Kulikov fan. He's never really blossomed into the offensive portion of the game after his 28 in 58 back in 2011.