[Mailbag] Ask Laidlaw Anything

[metaldude26]

Thanks for doing this. League in sig, do you have 3F and 1D sleepers that would make for good targets for this year's draft in round 12 to 15. Thanks in advance!

I haven't yet taken my dive into pre-draft rankings and mock drafting to know where players might pop up in exactly those rounds but as far as sleepers go here are a few I'm projecting for a breakout or bounceback:

F

Patrik Elias
Brendan Gallagher
David Pastrnak
Victor Rask
Kevin Hayes
Joffrey Lupul
Tom Wilson
Alex Killorn

D

Brian Campbell
Adam Larsson
Ryan Pulock

That's just a few but hopefully that helps.

How do you see Rask's numbers affected by the weakened Bruins team? Is Rask still expected to put up solid SV% and 30+ wins?

I think I've answered this before but Rask is going to look a lot like Schneider from this past year. 30 wins will be tough but he'll be close because of the sheer bulk of starts. His save percentage will hold up enough to keep him in the top 10 for goalies, but towards the back half. I have Rask projected for 32 wins.

[Shake]

Steve,

Riley Sheahan. What does he become? 3rd line Center ceiling or does he cement himself at some point as a 2C?
Dats and Zetts are aging and Larkin is lurking as a soon to be Center on a line in Detroit. Where does Sheahan fall in at?

My thoughts are long term he's a 3C. Your thoughts?

[metaldude26]

Could you pick 5 keepers form league 1 in my sig?

No brainers:

Giroux
Voracek
MacKinnon
Karlsson

In contention for the last slot:

Palat
Klingberg
Kane
Varlamov
Schneider

Choice:

Schneider

You've already got a Dman keeper and Klingberg is still green enough you don't need to go overboard.

Given the size of the league you'd likely be compelled to draft a goalie in the first five rounds so you almost have to take one. Schneider, even playing on a miserable team put up top-10 type numbers so he's the guy to take knowing it can't get much worse.

A top-10 goalie is certainly a top-90 guy in this league, which given the number of teams and keepers dictates what you are picking here so it makes a lot of sense.

- - - Updated - - -

How many fires did ya battle this summer?

Looking forward to having ya back around more often.

I've been on 6 fires total this summer. A couple of big ones, one here and one out in BC. For the most part a pretty quiet summer for me, which isn't necessarily a bad thing.

[blayze]

Are the Jays going all the way?

ps: you gotta come back to Toronto for drinks soon!

[metaldude26]

Does Ehlers stick with the Jets this year? line mates? 2-3 year point projections? Is he the next Bure 2.0 lol?

The door is pretty wide open for Ehlers as the Jets are currently looking at openings in their top nine forwards. So far the lineup looks as follows:

Ladd-Little-Stafford
Perreault-Scheifele-Wheeler
?-Lowry-Burmistrov
?-?-Thorburn

There are several candidates for those jobs and breaking into the top-six and the power play will be particularly challenging. Other prospects challenging here include Nic Petan, Andrew Copp, Patrice Cormier, Joel Armia and others.

It must also be considered the Jets' history with players threatening to go back home. The waited out Burmistrov over a year and eventually got him back, which might indicate stubbornness on their end, however it may also indicate a bit more urgency to placate the player based on unfortunate previous experience.

I think he makes it as a third liner so Lowry and Burmistrov are in the mix. Not a hugely productive first season, likely short of 30 points. He could be up to 50 in a couple of years if he does make a permanent leap. Bure 2.0 doesn't exist, defensemen skate too well these days for a guy like that to come about.

[Kunoichi]

1) Who would you have in a dynasty league (standard Yahoo stats plus Hits, SOGs, Blocks, FWs)? Duchene or Kopitar

2) What is the outlook for John Gibson? Does he have any value over the next couple of years given the ANA goalie situation? I'm debating whether he should be kept in a keeper league.

Thanks in advance!

[Axeman33]

Ok, I'll give you an actual fantasy question this time.

For the league in my sig, I have to drop five players for redrafting. Who are my five drops? Obviously MSL is an easy one, so you really only have to think about four.

[Big Baby]

In my keeper I'm thinking of moving a Goalie

I have Holtby, Fleury and Lundqvists. It's a cap league so the King has a high price tag.

Fleury and Lundqvist both have 17 back to backs next season so I'm a little concerned about that.

I definitely don't want to move Holtby, I like his situation too much. So between MAF and Lundqvist, who would you trade?

The return I would be looking for is a top forward, maybe Hall, Duchene, Schwartz, Giroux and a pick. But it seems that I can only get that return for Fleury. Lundqvist, because of his high $$ has less trade value than MAF. Will the penguins be a win machine next year? I'm so torn.

Would it be wise to roll with Lundqvist and Holtby in my league?

Or just keep all three?

[haze_tech]

First thanks for doing that...

Here is my question. What would be your top 10 prospect to draft after McDavid an Eichel this year ?

Cheers.

[Philgiguere2000]

Hi. Thanks for doing this.

What may i expect, for this year, from Mats Zuccarello
(Points, Line partners, power play Time)

Good day

[AdamINC]

Hi I just completed a keep all 48 round points only dynasty draft (g=1pt, a=1pt, w=2pt, so=1pt). I was hoping you could give my team an assessment and let me know what area's need improving. I had 4th overall pick, Crosby feel on my lap but I went with John Tavares(personal fav. and younger) Crosby ended up slipping to 6th! In Hindsight would have been great to snag Crosby if I knew I was gonna grab Malkin in the 2nd round at 21st overall.

We start 4C, 4RW, 4LW, 6D, 2G(Max 4gp/week), 8 Bench and 20 Minor Contracts(under 100gp)

Starting Lineup

Matt Duchene[C,LW], John Tavares[C], Evgeni Malking [C,RW]

Jakob Silverberg[LW,RW], Mark Scheifele[C], Nikita Kucherov[RW]

Tyler Ennis [C,LW], Brayden Scheen[C,LW], Brain Little[C,RW]

Jason Zucker[RW], Craigh Smith[C,RW], Mats Zuccarello[LW,RW]

Oliver Ekman-Larsson - Duncan Keith

Matt Dumba - Cam Fowler

Jake Gardiner - Dion Phaneuf

Jaroslav Halak - Henrik Lundqvist

Bench

Sean Coutuier [C]
Charlie Coyle [C,RW]
Tomas Jurco [RW]
Anthony Duclair [LW]
Andrew Coglinao [C,LW]
Cody Ceci [D]
Zach Bogosian [D]
Thomas Griess [G]

Minors

Landon Ferraro[C]
Ryan MacInnis [C]
Brett Ritchie [RW]
Jake Virtanen [RW]
Nicholas Baptiste [RW]
Daniel Sprong [RW]
Jimmy Vesey [LW]
Lawson Crouse [LW]
Jake DeBrusk [LW]
Charles Hudon [LW]
Brent Pollock [C,LW]
Adam Erne [LW]
Tobias Reider [LW]
Villa Polka [D]
Samuel Morin [D]
Ryan Spoul [D]
Dustin Tokarski [G]
Annti Raanta [G]
Makenzie Skapski [G]
Andre Makarov [G]

Thanks for doing this.

Adam

[metaldude26]

MacKinnon

Will he rebound?

The Avs as well. Are they as bad as they were last year?

Just getting improved health will get MacKinnon back on track. But it should be mentioned that it's not like he was horribly unlucky last season. His on-ice shooting percentage was about average at 7.56% and his personal shooting percentage was 7.3%. These are fair numbers, well within the curve of what we might expect. He is capable of more but this roster is also fairly thin. They lived on the edge a couple seasons ago and had enough fire power up front to get away with it, while Semyon Varlamov put on a show at the other end. They lost talent heading into last season and I'm not sure they've really improved much.

So what it will take to get MacKinnon back into the 60's is a nice leap in ability, which he is capable of but I'm not projecting for. The safe play is a 55-point projection.

As for the Avs themselves, their defense is improved a bit but it also needs time to gel with so many new faces. They've received above average goaltending from Varlamov for two straight seasons with save percentages of .928 and .921 respectively. His career average is .918. That's not to say he isn't capable of continuing on at a +.920% rate, but rather that I'd be looking for another season on the lower end of that spectrum. He also hasn't proven that he's capable of being a workhorse that can give you 70 starts without breaking down or struggling. That means plenty of Reto Berra who is a tire fire.

Not projecting a playoff season for the Avs.

[Daydream Nation]

I'm not sure I have four. I'm a fan of Corsi% and Fenwick%. +60% is the dream. That means you are getting three shot attempts for every two the other team gets. No one player who skated meaningful minutes last season broke 60%. 55% or more is elite. 51-55% is good. 45-50% is average. Less than 45% is poor. Some of this stuff is context dependant. Players who consistently start in their own zone against the opponents' best while skating with crappy linemates will wind up with bad numbers but for the most part that legend holds up.

Thanks. Good stuff!

[MarmotKing]

Should I keep Sedin over Hedman in my league?

I don't have a first round pick.

[metaldude26]

Stats in my sig.

Need to keep four. AO, Crosby and Holtby are locks. Due to our limited keeper rules, I can trade (and 95% land)for either Kessel or Malkin.

Who do you like for the next three years?

Malkin's - highest upside of the two but his injury issues worry me.
Kessel - New team, MUCH better linemates and a summer working with Gary Roberts intrigues me.

I suppose it's a question of consistency vs. upside, something similar to the Malkin vs. Stamkos debates that have raged on this site for years. It's ultimately going to come down to what you are comfortable with. The risk (Malkin) or the safe (Kessel).

I wouldn't let the working out with Gary Roberts thing influence you too much. In fact, I'm kind of on the bandwagon that Roberts does more harm than good. Don't get me wrong he gets this guys in wicked shape and the things he teaches them about diet and nutrition have a ton of value beyond just athletic performance. I just think that the NHL season is a marathon, not a sprint. I have no data on this but rather some anecdotal evidence but how many times have we heard about guys who are total workout fanatics only to see them average 65 games a season because they can't keep from getting hurt. Kris Letang is a huge example of this. I'm not sure Letang could get to the level he is at without working out like a mad man but I do wonder if he could give us 82 games if he wasn't constantly in a state of overtraining pushing the limits of what his body is capable of.

One important factor in this discussion is whether or not Malkin has RW eligibility. If so then he'd be my choice. If not, I want the flexibility that Kessel provides skating on the wing, even with an extra forward and an extra utility slot.

I'm comfortable taking the risk on Malkin if he's RW because your setup is H2H so there's little benefit to taking the safe option in Kessel come playoff time. I want the roster that has a chance to be unstoppable at that time of the season assuming full health.