"Keeper" Decisions

[LawMan]

So I have plenty of time to make my keeper decisions for the league in my signature. but with the guide out I have been giving it a lot of thought. I posted this in the 1-year league because it operates much more like a 1-year league than a keeper.

First the Rules: please read they are VERY unusual! We can keep a maximum of 2 players off our previous year’s roster, players can be kept for a maximum of 2 years. To keep a player you forfeit a draft pick 2 rounds higher than where the player was drafted, keeping a waiver wire pick-up costs a 10th round pick.

Thus:
You cannot keep a 1st or 2nd round pick
Keeping a 3rd round pick costs your 1st round pick (hard to justify given all 1st rounders are available)
The real value is in guys drafted late that breakout into 60+ point players.
i.e. the League’s best keeper right now is Tarasenko who was taken in the 10th last year, can be kept in the 8th and 10th the next 2 years.

My options:
Dubnyk – Costs 10th rounder- (last years’ 10th round): Bishop(keeper), Vrbata, Gallagher, Andersen (keeper), Kadri, Jagr, Perron, Pominville, Kreider, Varlamov, Elliot, Giordano
Mike Fisher- Costs 10th rounder
Jakub Voracek- Costs 3rd rounder- Simmonds, Kunitz, Thornton, Lucic, Datsyuk, Couture, Price, Zetterberg, Landeskog, E. Staal, Eriksson
Derek Stepan- Costs 7th rounder- Huberdeau, Carter, Miller, Nyqvist, Gaborik, Koivu, Iginla, Ryan, Chara, Dubinksy, Lehtonen, OEL
Anders Lee- Costs 15th Rounder- Downie, Cammalleri, Schiefle, Gagner, Galchenyuk, Parenteau, Foligno, Niel, Voynov, Plekanc, Franson, J. Williams
Luongo- Costs 6th rounder- Oshie, Niemi, Rinne, Bergeron, Howard, Kesler, Byfuglien, Keith, Saad, McDonagh, MSL, Hartnell

Analysis
Dubnyk is automatic as far as I’m concerned, He won’t have the magic he had last year but he’s a very competent goalie on a solid defensive team, I believe he will be quite competent in Minnesota going forward, plus a 10th rounder is cheap for a potential top-5 goalie.
My 2nd keeper is much tougher. If I believe Voracek is a 75+ point player with lots of PPPs then he’s well ahead of the average 3rd rounder from last season, though a few gems are still available by the 3rd round.
I am for some reason quite high on Stepan, he puts up excellent +/- which is a category I tend to ignore and struggle in. Also, he usually leads the league in SHP, which we have in our league (stupid I know), I think he’s got sneaky good value.
If Anders Lee can continue to improve he’s also a great choice. For a 15th rounder he’s basically free (only 2 15th rounders spent their entire team on a roster last season), I only had 1 guy from rounds 15-20 spend the bulk of the year on my team.
Paying a 6th for Luongo seems high, he could probably be re-drafted in that position, it would be nice to have 2 competent starters before the draft even starts though.
Comparing Fisher to the other options he was a good pickup but not as strong as some others IMO.

Voracek (3rd), Stepan (7th) and Lee (15th) all provide good value relative to their cost. Voracek will produce the most but costs the most. Stepan should be a solid 55 points with nice +/- and SHP. Lee could end up being a bust and getting dropped, which is common for a 15th rounder but even an achievable 55 points and tons of hits is a nice haul for such a low cost.

So Dobberites, Whatchathink?

[PenguinHunter]

Voracek, I think he definitely gets drafted before the third round after his huge year last year.
Stepan. I feel that he would get drafted around the 7th round as he is not a 'sexy' name in most fantasy circles and he was injured last year effecting his totals that people will look at.
Lee, I think with his breakout potential would get drafted earlier then the 15th, even as high as 10 or 11.

So I think Stepan would be the easiest to re-draft at the round you would have to keep him for. Voracek would be impossible to get as a 3rd round pick. And Lee is a risk as he might go anywhere from the 10th round to the 16th depending on peoples instincts.

[RizzeeDizzee]

I'd keep Dubnyk and either Voracek or Lee. Stepan is the odd man out because the emergence of Brassard scares me, as does the fact that Stepan is so windexy. Voracek has a great record of health and it's hard to see him posting less than 75 points. Plus, his PPP will be nice. Lee is a worthwhile feast or famine guy, who, as you noted, is a Hits monster.

[rainydrinkwater]

Dubnyk and Voracek. I'd gamble with keeping the best rest of my picks and targeting similar (same) players in redraft.

[Wizzy33]

None of your options give you a lot of value but I would say Voracek is the best after Dubnyk

[rataylor22]

Personally, my keepers would be Dubnyk and Lee.

Voracek you can only keep this year. Because you're not keeping him for a first rounder next year. So worst case scenario, if you want Voracek, re-draft him in the second round. Sure you "might" not be able to get a player of his caliber in the third round this year. But you guaranteed won't get a player of Lee's caliber past the, what, 8th round? 9th? And you can keep him for a 13th and then an 11th? That's my choice.

[chuckcouples]

Dubnyk and Stepan

Lee looks like great value but I try to avoid 25 year olds who were healthy scratches in the two most important games of his team's most recent season and for that reason, I would not keep him.

[The Comish]

Dubnyk and Voracek for me as well. I admit I'm tempted by Lee, but personally, I'm a sucker for the safe pick and Voracek is that. The home run swing is Lee.

[Laendarian]

Dubnyk and Voracek for me, I can't see anyone being around in round 3 that would be as high end as Voracek.