Full Keeper League Football advice

[PenguinHunter]

I have never competed in a keeper football league.

We are having our inaugural draft and I have 4th overall pick out of 16 teams. Standard lineup with an additional flex and team defenses. Standard scoring league, not PPR.

I assume that Lacy and Bell are the first two off the board.

Should I take Luck with 4th overall and build for the future? Or should I take one of the older RBs and go for a championship in year 1? Or is there some better strategy for 4th of 16 picks?

Thanks,

[Bomm Bastic]

limited keeper or dynasty? and Lacy is not in my top-4, regardless. Close, but...

if limited,how many? how many rounds? is it a snake draft?

[rataylor22]

limited keeper or dynasty? and Lacy is not in my top-4, regardless. Close, but...

if limited,how many? how many rounds? is it a snake draft?

Lacy not in your top 4?

And you're the lead guy for Dobber Football?

Yikes....

Well, hope lots of my competitors are using Dobber as a resource this year then.

Unless of course you mean he's not in your top 4 players to pick in a start-up full dynasty, which is still questionable but more passable.

For your position Penguin, Julio Jones is my pick. But I'm a big proponent of waiting on QB. Too many good ones every year. Julio is the best WR in the NFL and is going to be a monster this year. Don't buy the OBJ hype....

[Bomm Bastic]

Lacy not in your top 4?

And you're the lead guy for Dobber Football?

Yikes....

Well, hope lots of my competitors are using Dobber as a resource this year then.

Unless of course you mean he's not in your top 4 players to pick in a start-up full dynasty, which is still questionable but more passable.

For your position Penguin, Julio Jones is my pick. But I'm a big proponent of waiting on QB. Too many good ones every year. Julio is the best WR in the NFL and is going to be a monster this year. Don't buy the OBJ hype....

First he never said it was dynasty. Yikes

Second Lacy won't see the volume of carries needed to be a true workhorse back. He should level off around 240-50. Ideally as a workhorse back you'd want around 280+. Yikes

Third I said he wasn't in my top four. Not my top four RBs. Yikes.

Fourth, why the oft injured Julio at 4th overall? He's top 5-6 WR overall certainly not top 4 overall player in a dynasty. I'd rather own Dez, Demaryius, AJ Green, ODB Jr. and Antonio Brown alone over him....not to mention Gurley, hell even Cobb, Jeremy Hill.

Yikes.

[Swels Stewart]

First he never said it was dynasty. Yikes

Second Lacy won't see the volume of carries needed to be a true workhorse back. He should level off around 240-50. Ideally as a workhorse back you'd want around 280+. Yikes

Third I said he wasn't in my top four. Not my top four RBs. Yikes.

Fourth, why the oft injured Julio at 4th overall? He's top 5-6 WR overall certainly not top 4 overall player in a dynasty. I'd rather own Dez, Demaryius, AJ Green, ODB Jr. and Antonio Brown alone over him....not to mention Gurley, hell even Cobb, Jeremy Hill.

Yikes.

Lacy is a 25 year old back tied to a dynamic offence who hasn't finished outside the top 6 RBs in either of his two professional seasons. Yes, the strength of GB's offense probably caps his ceiling, but he might have the highest floor of any RB. I think if you want to go RB and Lacy or Bell fall to you, you take them. The case could be made for Hill, but his sample size is smaller. Otherwise, in a non-ppr, take Luck. No question there is safety and upside in the top WRs: beyond ODB Jr, the top WRs are all between 25 and 27 and should be great for the next five years. But, you can draft Luck and (with as much certainty as there is in fantasy football) not worry about QB for the next decade. And in a 16 team league, somebody has to start Kaepernick or Cutler or Dalton every week.

As for building a team for this year or for the future, I think you make that call at 29. If the other managers have gone young and let quality drop to you, then spend the middle rounds putting together a competitive team for this year and the last rounds on high-upside fliers for the future.

[rataylor22]

First he never said it was dynasty. Yikes

Second Lacy won't see the volume of carries needed to be a true workhorse back. He should level off around 240-50. Ideally as a workhorse back you'd want around 280+. Yikes

Third I said he wasn't in my top four. Not my top four RBs. Yikes.

Fourth, why the oft injured Julio at 4th overall? He's top 5-6 WR overall certainly not top 4 overall player in a dynasty. I'd rather own Dez, Demaryius, AJ Green, ODB Jr. and Antonio Brown alone over him....not to mention Gurley, hell even Cobb, Jeremy Hill.

Yikes.

He said keeper. Even if it's a 1 player keeper, it makes less than zero sense to consider that he will be keeping that player for an extended period of time.

Secondly. While he may not see the volume of an arbitrary "workhorse back" number you've chosen, he makes up for in efficiency, unstacked boxes, highest touchdown upside of any RB in fantasy football, increasing usage in the passing game, and playing in one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL. Not to mention his workload is almost guaranteed to go up, unless you really assume the Packers are going to jump out to 30 point leads in the first half with the regularity they did last season.

Third. I saw what you said. And stand by my statement.

Fourth. You mention injury history for Julio and then mention OBJ, the guy that's played in 12 career games and had injury history in college? And Gurley, the guy that's starting the season injured? How long are Deymarius and Dez going to have Romo/Peyton? And Randall Cobb? Randall freakin' Cobb? Yea, Cobb isn't even close to the best receiver on his team. He's a third round pick in a redraft league, let alone a keeper league. Why Julio? Simple. He's got the talent to be the best WR in the NFL. His combination of speed, power, and body control are close to unmatched by any other WR (Dez has more power but not the speed, Deymarius has concentration/drop issues, Calvin is losing a step) and he just got an OC who relentlessly targets his #1 receiver, the same guy who made Pierre Garçon, an average WR at best, lead the league in targets and receptions. No WR in fantasy has the upside Julio does, and calling him an injury risk is the same as saying football is played with a ball. It's football. Everyone is an injury risk.

Gurley and Cobb? Yikes is right.

[Bomm Bastic]

He said keeper. Even if it's a 1 player keeper, it makes less than zero sense to consider that he will be keeping that player for an extended period of time.

Secondly. While he may not see the volume of an arbitrary "workhorse back" number you've chosen, he makes up for in efficiency, unstacked boxes, highest touchdown upside of any RB in fantasy football, increasing usage in the passing game, and playing in one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL. Not to mention his workload is almost guaranteed to go up, unless you really assume the Packers are going to jump out to 30 point leads in the first half with the regularity they did last season.

Third. I saw what you said. And stand by my statement.

Fourth. You mention injury history for Julio and then mention OBJ, the guy that's played in 12 career games and had injury history in college? And Gurley, the guy that's starting the season injured? How long are Deymarius and Dez going to have Romo/Peyton? And Randall Cobb? Randall freakin' Cobb? Yea, Cobb isn't even close to the best receiver on his team. He's a third round pick in a redraft league, let alone a keeper league. Why Julio? Simple. He's got the talent to be the best WR in the NFL. His combination of speed, power, and body control are close to unmatched by any other WR (Dez has more power but not the speed, Deymarius has concentration/drop issues, Calvin is losing a step) and he just got an OC who relentlessly targets his #1 receiver, the same guy who made Pierre Garçon, an average WR at best, lead the league in targets and receptions. No WR in fantasy has the upside Julio does, and calling him an injury risk is the same as saying football is played with a ball. It's football. Everyone is an injury risk.

Gurley and Cobb? Yikes is right.

I mentioned those players over Julio generally not as options at the fourth overall necessarily (btw I never mentioned Calvin). Besides, if you don't think there is a major difference in potential draft strategies between a full dynasty and a 1 player keeper, this conversation should just end now.

I said Lacy isn't in my top four but that he was close. Stop acting like I said he wasn't in my top 20. Lacy laying just outside of my top-4, is no more laughable (even less so) than suggesting he take Julio Jones w/the 4th overall in any league's inaugural draft. I asked for more league info before I give a definitive info. You good enough apparently that you don't need it.

You like Lacy at 4th overall in any league. Fine. I don't. Not sure why you're having a fit about it.

[Goldendelicious]

If Bell and Lacy are first off the board, I would look to Dez, Brown, DT or Charles with the #4 pick. I wouldn't go QB that high.

[PenguinHunter]

Sorry for confusion guys... it is Full Keepers, so I guess that would mean dynasty. my bad.

Thanks for the insight so far!

[Bomm Bastic]

Sorry for confusion guys... it is Full Keepers, so I guess that would mean dynasty. my bad.

Thanks for the insight so far!

You need to consider a general strategy that will ultimately decide what you will draft at #4 spot. I am going to assume WR-WR-WR plus RB-WR-TE flex? In a sixteen team league that's a whole lot of WRs going off the board. If you need Lacy on your team (we all have our man crushes) I am fine with that. However, in a dynasty inaugural I would target Tannehill in a later round say 5-ish and draft heavy on WRs and one RB in the first four. Or ideally, see if you can dish #4 to move down to #7 picking up an additional 2nd maybe 3rd (depending where it is) along the way. That will afford you the ability to draft 3WR and 2RB in the first four rounds then Tannehill in round 5.

First, you need to ask yourself if you are ok w/ punting year-1 in favor of stockpiling for future consecutive championship. That's your call. Remember, redraft strategies should be largely ignored in this format.

[Swels Stewart]

Sorry for confusion guys... it is Full Keepers, so I guess that would mean dynasty. my bad.

Thanks for the insight so far!

Can you confirm the league settings? Are you starting 2 or 3 WR? Are passing TDs worth 4 or 6? How large are your benches? What are the waiver rules and max acquisitions?

[dbrzrk]

Can you confirm the league settings? Are you starting 2 or 3 WR? Are passing TDs worth 4 or 6? How large are your benches? What are the waiver rules and max acquisitions?

I think regardless of the league set up, in a full dynasty with 16 teams you take Luck... He will be the best option for the next decade. The turn over for RB's and WR's is so fast in the NFl it wont take you long to fill those positions with talent, But having Luck is a huge advantage. He will be the highest point producer for the next decade and you wont have to worry about injury or retirement for the length of the league. He will never loose value and once you get comfortable enough with football you can flip him for a kings ransom.

[Goldendelicious]

I think regardless of the league set up, in a full dynasty with 16 teams you take Luck... He will be the best option for the next decade. The turn over for RB's and WR's is so fast in the NFl it wont take you long to fill those positions with talent, But having Luck is a huge advantage. He will be the highest point producer for the next decade and you wont have to worry about injury or retirement for the length of the league. He will never loose value and once you get comfortable enough with football you can flip him for a kings ransom.

Ya know, he is absolutely right...I get caught up in my 3 keeper, 3-year max leagues that are more RB/WR dependant. But dbrzrk is right that Luck will give you long stability that you can mix in RBs and WRs whom are going to mix in that elite level. He should be #3 in my opinion after Bell & Lacy (I still rank them higher due to position scarcity and QBs the number of QBs that can post good scores)

[PenguinHunter]

So if I do go with Luck at 4, I presume I should try for 1 WR and RB with my next two picks. Any suggestions on who I should target around pick #29 and 36? My gut says that most guys will go young and try winning it in the future...

[Goldendelicious]

Always tough to say because I have no idea how your draft will pan out. I would pick WR/RB based on the higher skill available. Two names that may slip to those picks (so hard to predict): Alshon Jeffery, Justin Forsett