Draft Order Q

[andrewklassen]

So we're starting a new 12 team, STD scoring league. It might have a couple of keeper components to it, but it may also not have any [we're determining that tonight]. However, we are playing video games to determine who picks where. But instead of the winner automatically getting the 1st pick and the worst scoring player getting the 12th, the winner gets to choose which spot he wants in the draft [be it 1-12]. The next highest scoring player gets second selection of draft position...and so on and so forth until the unlucky schmuck who finished last gets whatever draft position that's left unclaimed.

Assuming I don't finish dead last [which is far from a given], how do you guys rank draft positions? Rumor has it that a person should prefer either the 1-5 or 11-12 spots...leading to more pool wins. Do find this true? Is it really that disadvantageous to draft in 7-9 window? I realize strategically a person is going to go after different positional players with later picks and try to dominate either at WR or perhaps QB/TE.

Anyway, I'm looking for any advice as to which picks I should chase and which ones I should shun [assuming I have a choice ].

[Fighting_Emu]

if you get 1st or 2nd its hard not to take Sid or AO.

After that Id make tiers and go for the last pick in that tier. So for example my tier 2 (with a keeper compnent) would maybe be:

Malkin, JT, Stammer, and probably McDavid. So in that case with picks 1 and 2 gone Id try to target 6th- so I get whoever is left out of my tier 2 elite grouping with an earlier pick next round.

Tier 3 might be:

Girooux, Seguin, Benn, maybe Karlsson? In that case Im going to target 10.

After that there are more than two fantastic options so id jump straight to 12 where you can grab Hall, Kessel, Getz, Perry, Tank and still have the first pick next round.

Im not sure this would work every year but tome thats how it breaks down this year in terms of absolute beastmode top-level talent tiering. As the drft goes on it becomes a little less significant as things get muddier although I have heard many poolies prefer those middle picks so you have less chance of getting burned on goalie and d-man rushes.

So to summarize:

Basically have to take 1-2 imho if you win.
After that Im going 6th, 5th, 4th, 3rd in that order.
Then 10th, 9th, 8th, 7th in that order.
Then 12th, 11th in that order.

My quirky strategy- hope its at least insightful. And of course you can apply the same theory to different tierings if you dont agree with my rankings (obviously)- its just the thought process I would have going into my pick decision.

[Fighting_Emu]

Lmao- this is football- fml- disregard...

[andrewklassen]

if you get 1st or 2nd its hard not to take Sid or AO.

Emu, does your strategy hold true in FOOTBALL drafts too? I am in the football forum, yes??? Just curious...

[Fighting_Emu]

Lol- I caught that after the fact- haha!

So no the Sid/AO part doesnt-lmao- but I think the logic could still apply. I am not familiar with football at all- but if you can group your 1st round selections into tiers youd be happy with- aka a group of guys that are basically interchangeable for you- then id do that and take the last pick youd need to get a guy in the best available tier in the first round.

You know what im saying?

[Swels Stewart]

My own preference would be 1-4. Not so much because I think the difference between the top 4 players and the next 10 is all that dramatic, but when I look at the third round (assuming snake), the number of WRs and/or RBs I want falls off pretty quickly.

[andrewklassen]

The good news is...I landed the #3 pick in a snake draft. Pretty solid.

[brakli]

My own preference would be 1-4. Not so much because I think the difference between the top 4 players and the next 10 is all that dramatic, but when I look at the third round (assuming snake), the number of WRs and/or RBs I want falls off pretty quickly.

I agree with this. It's the top 4 RB's in the first round and then a drop off. In this year's draft the best spot is #4. You get one of AP, Charles, Lacy and Bell. And in the second round you pick before the top three selections.

#3 should be a nice spot for you

[Goldendelicious]

Football is different from hockey...where you can survive in hockey easily with later picks, you need to get the elite players in football to be competitive. You have far more games in hockey (up to 3/4 games for a team per week) and its more likely you go against a superstar that has a night off. The same does not apply in football where you get one game and points are fairly consistent (sure they rise and dip week to week but they average out pretty well over the season). The focal point is always around those stars, the workhorses, you get your surprise here and there but you don't see as many out of the blue risers like football.

in a 12 team, I think you want to be in the range of 3-5...1st pick never works out because you always beat yourself up afterwards that you picked Charles over Bell (or whatever).

[PenguinHunter]

I don't believe that is it bad to draft in the 7-9 spot in a football draft. Lots of people don't want to draft their because it is more difficult to determine what is going to be available for your next pick cause there is always the same number of picks between your selections.

Players always prefer the close to back to back picks because there is less picks between them and they can better predict what roster position needs filled more. However, often people with close to back to back picks will reach quite far for a player that they want and feel uncertain that he will be available when it gets all the way back to their next pick.

Therefore, I prefer picking in the middle of the draft for two main reasons:
1) You never have to reach more than 10-12 picks for a guy cause you will always have another pick within that number of picks (unlike players with back to back picks that will have to wait 20 + picks for their next pick)

2) As long as you are prepared and able to follow your strategy and not get caught up in who other people are picking, then you will be able to fill the roster positions you need and be confident in it.

I would say back to back picks are often seen as better because you do not have to prepare as much with a selection close to back to back. In a 12 team league If I got to choose... I would pick 2nd overall (to guarantee me Lacy or Bell) or pick 9 (which would guarantee me a top 10 RB and a top 5 WR or Luck/Rodgers or Gronk if you are a fan of drafting TE early).

[dbrzrk]

The good news is...I landed the #3 pick in a snake draft. Pretty solid.

3 is a good spot to be in, you can grab one of the stud RB, and then maybe even grab a top 10 WR on the turn, or at least a high end RB2 like Gore, miller,Forsett etc. Not bad....

One thing I will say, you cant win your league at the draft, but you certainly can loose it! Your first four rounds should be high floor players(low risk)...it is the mid to late rounds that you take chances on higher upside but higher risk players (ie rookies, etc) .... If you dont bust out on your first 4 picks, and you are active on the wire and win a trade or two, you will have a good chance of winning.

[andrewklassen]

Players always prefer the close to back to back picks because there is less picks between them and they can better predict what roster position needs filled more. However, often people with close to back to back picks will reach quite far for a player that they want and feel uncertain that he will be available when it gets all the way back to their next pick.

I've found this to be very true as I continue to mock draft. Thanks of this great insight. Even at #3 overall when I know I'm facing the long snake part of the round I have a tendency to "reach" for a player I really want and am unsure if I'll get them on the back-swing. Patience is a virtue I guess...as is having several plans for adjusting and tweaking strategy on the fly when one's Plan A suddenly gets side-swiped.