Fantasy Football Draft Advice...for a Newbee

[andrewklassen]

I've been a part of Dobber Hockey forums for several years and have found the advice there to be what consistently has me at or near the top of our annual hockey pool. I'm hoping to find similarly insightful [and helpful] GM's here. Listen, I'm brand new to fantasy football and will be joining a league for the first time this year. We're having our inaugural draft in a few weeks and I'm looking for any kind of helpful draft advice and strategy tips to help me learn to process the nuances of this fantasy sport.

I believe our league may have a small keeper component [think keep 3 players].
It's a H2H format with STD scoring [not a PPR league].
I believe we have 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 RB/WR [flex], 1 TE, 1 K, 1 team D, 6 bench.
Our draft order has yet to be determined so I can't give that information yet [although we will have 12 teams].

I'm new to H2H format and haven't ever worked with BYE weeks [not something to consider in hockey pools]. What do I need to know?

I'm told the waiver wire is super-important!?

I'm also really trying to figure out the best strategy for bench players...any advice?

Cheers...Andrew

[Bazz]

In a standard scoring league RB are the most important, guys I like this year AP/Charles/Bell/Hill/Gordon/Lativous Murray/Hyde/Jennings/Abdullah. Stay away from RBs that eclipse 375 carries the year before, I don't believe there are any this year. Also after Rodgers and Luck you can wait on QBs.

If you do a waiver wire priority, then yes the WW is very important. Guys like Victor Cruz of yester year won't be taken in the draft and be a WW pick up. That's a free WR2/FLEX play every week for a WW pick up. Make sure your D/ST and K have back ups without the same bye. You do not want to burn your WW spot on that. Have a decent back up QB with a different bye then your QB1.

Try not to have more then 2 stud RB/WB on the same bye week. There is a strategy about punting one week, but in weekly H2H you can be the second highest score team for the week and lost to the highest scoring team that week. I've had that happen multiple times within a year.

[PenguinHunter]

It is important to be live at your draft as you don't want to have all of your players with the same bye week. You really don't want more than two players at the same position with the same bye week.

When completing your draft track your position players bye weeks. This is how you would determine your players for your bench. They will be guys at a position that have a different bye week then your starters for the position.

Do not draft a defense or a kicker for your bench. Just pick one up for your teams bye week at those positions. Its more important to have a backup QB, 2 RB and 2 WR and a TE on your bench. Whichever position player on your bench that isn't performing or that you have already used them as replacement for your starters bye weeks, is the player you will want to drop for a kicker or defense for the kicker or defense bye week.

Try to stay close to 1 on waiver wire for when you have to drop a position player to pick up a kicker or defense. So that you can get a good waiver pickup to replace them with a solid position player in the week following the one that you pick up a defense or kicker.

If your kicker or defense is not a top 3 defense or kicker. It is okay to drop them for there bye week. But again, try to stay close to the top of the waiver order so you can hopefully get them back if they have a decent schedule.

Do not draft a kicker anywhere outside of the last two rounds of the draft. There is not enough if a difference between kickers to waste an earlier pick on them when you could get a better RB, WR or QB. Kickers on crappy teams can still score points!

[andrewklassen]

This is super-helpful. Can you explain to me how the waiver wire usually works? How would someone work to stay close to the top priority?

[PenguinHunter]

This is super-helpful. Can you explain to me how the waiver wire usually works? How would someone work to stay close to the top priority?

In most football leagues I am in, the waiver wire starts out as opposite of the first round of the draft. And after each weeks games all players are on waivers. And you can put claims in to claim players off of waivers. Whoever is closest to 1 on the waiver order gets first pick of the waivers. Each time you claim a player off waivers you move to the bottom of the waiver order or 12th in the wiaver order in your league cause there is 12 teams. So the best way to stay close to 1 in the order is to not claim players off of waivers. So I usually try to wait until all players have cleared waivers before I make a waiver claim. cause then you can pick them up as free agents. But if you are #1 on the waiver order and a true star (for simplistic sakes - say someone drops Andrew Luck) then you want to use your waiver spot to claim him.

So I try not to use waivers on lesser players. I try to save it for positional needs of when I really need a player such as for a Bye week or an injury. Or when someone really good gets dropped by another team.

This is my strategy and it seems to work for me. Some other guys will make waiver claims on a weekly basis thinking they get the small advantage of picking up a decent player every week. But they miss out on the chance at a really good player if one is dropped for positional requirements, such as dropping a good D like seahawks the week that they have a bye.

[andrewklassen]

So I usually try to wait until all players have cleared waivers before I make a waiver claim. cause then you can pick them up as free agents.

Just so I'm clear. Dropping a player and/or placing a player on waivers is [for all intents and purposes] the same thing, yes...no? Is there a difference between acquiring a player as a free agent or picking them up through the waiver wire?

[PenguinHunter]

Just so I'm clear. Dropping a player and/or placing a player on waivers is [for all intents and purposes] the same thing, yes...no? Is there a difference between acquiring a player as a free agent or picking them up through the waiver wire?

Yes, there is a difference. After each weeks games are complete, every player not on a roster goes on waivers. From Monday after the Monday night game until Wednesday GMs can put in claims for waivers. Waivers are usually processed early Thursday morning (before the Thursday night game). One the waiver process is complete, all players that were not claimed via waivers are now free agents and can be claimed without losing your spot on the waiver. (With exception to the players that were dropped by GMs in order to claim someone off waivers).

And yes, for this discussion, dropping a player is the same as placing him on waivers. Every time to pick a new player the player that you get rid of is placed of waivers.

But all players not on rosters after a weekend set of games are also placed on waivers for the next week. This makes is so that there is no advantage to GMs that have a player play in the Thursday night game. A GM could drop a player from a Thursday night game and then pick up a new player for the following weeks games. A GM that has players play on sunday is at a disadvantage. Therefore weekly waiver claims are all processed on Wed to make it fair for all GMs.

[Zorro]

Draft stud RB's first!! If no stud RB's are left, grab a stud WR, Rodgers, or Luck.. If you want Gronk or Graham, then you are going to have to grab them early.. I have always waited on TE's.. Kickers and DEF should be drafted in the last two rounds, no sooner!!

Goodluck, can't wait to hear the final results!!

[Rad64]

First of all....avoid the recomendations to draft RB-RB with your first two picks, that's old school. Two reasons -1. More teams are using running back tandems and 2. Teams are focusing more on the passing game. If you are drafting early and an elite RB is available, take him, later in the first round, you are better off with an elite WR. I'd rather have three stud WR's and two marginal backs. Regarding Gronk and Graham, Gronk is missing Brady for the first 4 weeks so he might drop a little in your draft. Graham isn't likely to put up the numbers he did in New Orleans, I'd let someone else draft him in the first two rounds. If those TE's are off the table, I'd wait until late in your draft to pick up a TE. Normally, you can still pick up a decent QB by the 5th or 6th round, but you need to keep an eye on the draft in case there is a run on QB's.

Don't get too caught up in filling your roster, pick the best players available. A perfect example could be a run on TE's in the middle of the draft. You might feel obligated to take a TE. In these cases, do two things. 1. Look at how many teams already have a TE. That will give you an idea of the difference between picking a TE now or in the next round. 2. Compare the value of picking the best TE available compared to other positions. I'll take a #3 WR who averages 8 points a week over a TE averaging 5.
Don't forget you can always trade from strength in a position after the draft.

As mentioned above, pick a kicker and d with your last two picks. You can play the matchups each week wiht kickers and defences throughout the season.

Don't worry about waiver status! If you find a new gem, pick him up...what's the worst thing that can happen. You drop him after a few weeks. Look for WR's and RB's that may steal a starting role due to injuries to starters...or declining performance. Hanging on to your waiver picks until the end of the season is a total waste.

The best advice of all is to look at your league settings and pre-rank your players based on those settings. Then go out and do lots of mock drafts using the same provider your league is using. You'll get comfortable using the draft tool and get an idea of where players are being drafted. Take the time to look at other teams while you are mock drafting..if 11 teams have a QB, you can probably wait a round or two to pick yours in most cases

[Bomm Bastic]

The other argument for not going RB-RB in the first two rounds is rate of return. That is to say (and the exact specs escape me), when comparing the top-8 RBs to the top-8 WRs outside of the the top-2 RBs (AP and Lev Bell) your rate of return is much much better - from a value based perspective (production/ADP) with WRs as a whole.

I would say, if this is your first draft, make it fun. Don't try to learn everything at once, and don't be afraid to make a mistake. Oh, if Luck falls to you in the 2nd take him. If not I would look at Tannehill in the later rounds. Solid keeper with a bright future.

[GinFizz]

I wouldnt waste a first rd pick on a RB.

[Zorro]

I would never go RB-RB in your first two rounds.. Stud RB's are hard to come by.. If you can get L.Bell, you get him!!

[andrewklassen]

I would never go RB-RB in your first two rounds.. Stud RB's are hard to come by.. If you can get L.Bell, you get him!!

Hey Z, so in STD scoring system [2 RB, 2 WR, and 1 RB/WR flex] who would you list as "studs" at RB? I've been crunching data, mock drafts, and absorbing as many articles as I can wrap my head around for my first football draft. It seems to me that a WR who has a career year might come close to 250 points, but a RB who has a career year could come close to 300. Upside favors RBs, touches and consistency tends to favor RBs. I feel like I can drop 25 WRs and find surprisingly great value down there, but I'm taking huge risk/reward RB picks by 25. In no way do I want to lock myself into a RB/RB draft strategy, but why would you so adamantly say NEVER draft 2 RBs with your opening 2 selections?

[Swels Stewart]

Fantasy Football (not unlike the real thing) is much more a game of opportunity and volume.

Elite RBs are worth more because they are safer point getters than WRs (yes, this is debatable, but it is the general attitude). But because of their role, they tend to get injured or lose their job more readily than WRs. That is, they have a higher bust rate (drafted in the top 12 at their position but don't end the year in the top 15) RBs bust at something like 45% vs 30% for WRs (you could google the exact numbers). QBs bust lower still, but are generally higher scoring, so aside from the few really elite (this year Luck and Rodgers), they have much less value in leagues of 12 or fewer teams (less still if passing TDs are worth less than rushing/receiving TDs).

The waiver wire is important, again, because of opportunity/volume. Players emerge into roles over the course of the season, and players fall out of roles. Staying competitive means paying attention to who is worth adding each and every week. The advice above about waivers is good, but you should double check your league settings to confirm that all that applies (different leagues use different formats and different waiver periods).

Injuries in fantasy football can have a huge impact - if one of your players is in your starting line up and doesn't start, your week could be ruined. Stay on top of injury reports.

In terms of draft strategy, in preparing to draft I find it helpful to tier my rankings by position and overall. I don't see a problem with RB/RB in a non-ppr. That said, you should always go with what the draft gives you. If everyone else is going RB heavy early, the value might be in the WRs. In my mind the stud RBs are Charles, Peterson, Bell (who is suspended the first two weeks), Lacy, Lynch, Hill, and Anderson. You probably want one of them. In a league with these settings, you should plan to start 3 RBs each week (2 RB spots plus the flex) and have a least another 3 on your bench. If one of your starters has a clear handcuff, draft him too. The stud WRs are A. Brown, Bryant, D. Thomas, J. Jones, C. Johnson, Beckham Jr., Nelson, Green, Jeffrey. You probably want one of them. With TEs and QBs, draft Gronkowski, Luck, or Rodgers early (2nd, maybe late first) or wait until the middle rounds. You should draft a second QB, but don't bother with a backup TE. Draft your DST and K last. Do not draft more than 1 of each. You should be able to pick up replacements without burning your waiver priority (but again, check your settings).

I wouldn't worry about bye weeks too much. You are better off trying to draft the best team you can. You have anywhere from 4 to 10 weeks to figure out what you are going to do on byes.

In preparation for your draft you should mock draft a few times to get a sense for where players are in the draft order and where they are going off the board.

The good news is that fantasy football is hugely popular and you should have no problem finding a wide range of analysis and predictions online.

[dbrzrk]

People telling you RB's are not important are misinforming you....They are extremely important due to positional scarcity, but outside the top 5-7 RB's there is a big drop off. If you are picking in the upper half of the draft grab a stud RB(Bell, Charles, Lacy, AP, Lynch, Forte). If you are in the back half of a snake I can understand going either luck/rodgers or elite WR dez/brown/julio and then grab Jeremy hill at the turn as your RB 1.

The RB/RB strategy works IF you are at the top of the draft and grab one of those top 5/6 elite RBs, then grab a Hill/Forsett, etc at round 2. Due to the positional scarcity at the position you will want to have the edge on RB's.... There are very few true bellcow backs left(maybe 5 in the league??), so if you can get one or even two, you are stacked. The drop off from the top 10 to 20 RB's is pretty big and outside the top 20 for RB there is ZERO value.... Conversely with WR's there is still more value at WR25 and WR 30, so not as much scarcity at that position.

You mentioned this is a keeper.... is it a keep three with no restrictions? ie if you draft charles rd 1 this year and keep him next yr, do you loose your rd1 pick? If it is a keeper with no restrictions (like most hockey leagues) your rankings should change quite a bit.... Guys like Bell, Lacy, Hill go up a bit, so does Luck and Rogers, as well as guys like Dez and OBJ. One thing I noticed that was different btwn hockey and NFL is that young guys break out way sooner, and guys disappear way faster...the turnover is fast in this league (unlike hockey) ...so don't have 3-5 yr plans, they are useless in football.

I was recently (2 yrs ago) new to football and am in a league similar to yours (keep 4)... I recommend you not worry about this yr too much (its a learning year for you) ... I would target stud keepers with longevity and less volatility ie (luck, rodgers, OBJ, Dez, Bell, Lacy) and focus on getting 3 very good and young players at the three important positions, thus setting you up for future success.



Keep in mind that trading and WW are very important.... you cant win your league at the draft, but you can defiantly loose it! make sure your first 4 picks are high floor picks, mid to late round you can speculate more with high ceiling players (ie rookies , etc)


Don't worry about bye weeks...the season changes and evolves so fast that realistically the team you drafted will change substantially by week 6. Don't fall in love with your draft picks(mid to late rounders)...be active on the WW as there are always gems available every year.

Most importantly....Have fun! It is an incredible 17 weeks... I love hockey, but fantasy football is the most intense fantasy sport of them all, you will love it.