MacK: Back on track?

[Bubba55]

I'm thinking of targeting MacK in a trade, hoping to take advantage of a somewhat disgruntled owner. But, I'm not 100% sure he will deliver what I need, and that's a 60 Pt effort next year. If his rookie season is the indicator, then I would say that hitting 60 this year is very achievable. However, the sophomore jinx bit MacK pretty damn hard. If anyone has any opinions and/or advanced stats on why that happened and if a solid turn around is more likely than not, then I would sure like to hear that. As a final request, is MacK even a keeper for me, I will likely protect 8 forwards? I think so, and I would like to get a little youth in my core, but I'd like to hear some other opinions.

13 TEAM PARTIAL Yahoo Roto KEEPER, KEEP 12 PLUS 2 ROOKIES
Scoring: Skaters: G, A, PTS, SOG, +/-, PPP, PIM, Hits, BKS; Goalies: W, GAA, SV%, Total Saves
Start: 3 C; 3 LW; 3 RW; 3 Forwards; 1 Utility; 6 D and 1 G; 5 Bench Positions

Centers: Crosby C, Spezza C, Ribeiro C, Brassard C
RW: Pominville RW, Wheeler RW,
LW: Matt Martin LW, Ladd LW
Dual Eligibility: Stamkos C/RW, Neal LW/RW, Marleau C/LW, Vanek LW/RW, Lee C/LW (Rookie), Killorn C/LW, Perron RW/LW

[Pengwin7]

Keeper?
Definitely yes, definitely.
MacKinnon will be a 75-80pt player... and that's a top 15 NHL player, so yes, definite keeper.

Ryan O'Reilly is gone.
I think the long-term goal of the Avs since drafting MacKinnon has been to get Duchene/MacKinnon as C1/C2.
That said, MacK was not ready for NHL center duties.
Very similar to Tyler Seguin, his coach decided to get him acclimated to the NHL pace by using him at wing.

re: MacKinnon 2015-2016
There are two possibilities for his use.

1) Straight out of camp COL will use MacK as their C2, possibly with Soderberg on his wing to help with defensive coverage/draws. (If this happens, the defensive responsibilities of learning C may keep MacK around 55-60pts).
2) They will continue to use MacKinnon at RW. If he stays at wing, he'll have more freedom to roam and I'll predict him for 62-67pts.


MacKinnon's rookie season was a bit on the "lucky" side with the Avs all having a higher than average SH%.
People do this often, they see a players first good year and say "Oh, we can depend on this as his benchmark and since he's young... it's only up from here".

People who predicted MacKinnon to near 63pts in his rookie year... well, they got lucky.
He was a 55-58pt ish player who had some luck among his linemates having good SH%.


Your 8F in order of value:
1. Crosby
2. Stamkos
3. MacKinnon (if you get him via trade)
4. Wheeler
5. Ladd
6. Spezza
7. Ribeiro
8. Vanek
9. Marleau
10. Brassard
11. Lee

Now is a great time to go after MacKinnon.
The downside though... is I don't see the pieces on your team to get him... unless the other guy is interested in 2-3 of your #4 down group.

Good luck.
Keep us posted.
I'd love to hear if you can acquire him.

[islefan31]

That's my dilemma as well in my keep 4. The past couple of seasons I traded Giroux, keeping Quick over him...Giroux blew up the next season. The following season I traded Quick/Seguin for Giroux....the next season Seguin blew up. Seeing a pattern here? Now I'm contemplating keeping Rinne over MacK, the moral here is wait and see what I do. If I keep Rinne, get MacK, if I keep MacK, wait 1 more season to get him.

[2014olympicgold]

MacKinnon will be on a lot of peoples “should have kept” list. Honestly if he’s not a keeper on your team, go look at a trade because he will be a keeper on someone elses.

[Bubba55]

That's my dilemma as well in my keep 4. The past couple of seasons I traded Giroux, keeping Quick over him...Giroux blew up the next season. The following season I traded Quick/Seguin for Giroux....the next season Seguin blew up. Seeing a pattern here? Now I'm contemplating keeping Rinne over MacK, the moral here is wait and see what I do. If I keep Rinne, get MacK, if I keep MacK, wait 1 more season to get him.

Too funny!! But maybe you traded away Yak and Huberdeau for Tank and Forsberg to take the pain out of it?? Sometimes ya can't win for losin'. Honestly, in your format I'd be keeping Rinne. I'll give ya a bag of pucks for MacK.

[fungchen3]

Bubba,

I'm all for targeting MacKinnon but what are you able to give up to get him? What's the price tag?

[Bubba55]

Bubba,

I'm all for targeting MacKinnon but what are you able to give up to get him? What's the price tag?

Same question basically from Pengwin and a good one and the answer is not apparent when you look at my F. I have a rather nice stable of young D and I am also considering moving Rask.

D: Barrie, Josi, Vatenen, TJ Brodie, Klingberg

G: Rask, Holtby

I guess this could be another thread, but I am planning on keeping 3 D and that includes Klingberg who I can protect as a rookie. So, that leaves me with keeping two of Barrie, Josi, Vatenen and Brodie. I'm leaning towards keeping Josi and Vatenen and shopping Barrie and Brodie. The MacK owner is in bad shape on D, Seabrook and and Niskanen, with 31 pts each, are his two best keepers.

Between the pipes the MacK owner is also hurting with Elliot, Smith and Ward being his keeper options. I gotta think Rask is a wee bit of an upgrade on all of those guys. I'm pretty comfortable running with Holtby next year so Rask could go if the price was right.

So, I have some pieces to move. I'm just concerned about the return, I'm in win now mode and can't wait a few years for a guy to mature. While I'm at it, the other owner also has Tank. I'm looking that over closely too. In a perfect world blockbuster, I'm thinking I move all the guys I've named plus a couple of non keep forwards (Brassard, Pommer as an example) for both Tank and MacK! I may throw that one out and see what happens.

What do you guys think.

[fungchen3]

Same question basically from Pengwin and a good one and the answer is not apparent when you look at my F. I have a rather nice stable of young D and I am also considering moving Rask.

D: Barrie, Josi, Vatenen, TJ Brodie, Klingberg

G: Rask, Holtby

I guess this could be another thread, but I am planning on keeping 3 D and that includes Klingberg who I can protect as a rookie. So, that leaves me with keeping two of Barrie, Josi, Vatenen and Brodie. I'm leaning towards keeping Josi and Vatenen and shopping Barrie and Brodie. The MacK owner is in bad shape on D, Seabrook and and Niskanen, with 31 pts each, are his two best keepers.

Between the pipes the MacK owner is also hurting with Elliot, Smith and Ward being his keeper options. I gotta think Rask is a wee bit of an upgrade on all of those guys. I'm pretty comfortable running with Holtby next year so Rask could go if the price was right.

So, I have some pieces to move. I'm just concerned about the return, I'm in win now mode and can't wait a few years for a guy to mature. While I'm at it, the other owner also has Tank. I'm looking that over closely too. In a perfect world blockbuster, I'm thinking I move all the guys I've named plus a couple of non keep forwards (Brassard, Pommer as an example) for both Tank and MacK! I may throw that one out and see what happens.

What do you guys think.

Bubba

A few things...

It is (was) definitely helpful listing your players - or at least ones you can shop. Before that we were all flying blind.

Secondly, if you are in "win now" mode, I don't think MacKinnon should be your primary target. He could "bounce back" to 60+ this year or he could end up with 52. He's still a puppy finding his way in the big league. 2-3 years from now I'm fully convinced that MacK will be a 70-80 point threat, but you need to be patient. If you are willing to take so-so production from him this year and cross your fingers for a breakout, role the dice. But if you want beefy, reliable production, deal for a vet with proven chops.

As for who to trade - I would dangle Brodie as part of any deal - maybe Josi in a swap for MacKinnon if you are going all-in with Nate. I would keep Barrie on D for sure. And I would love to keep Josi as well, but I think Vatanen is about to be a 50 point threat and Josi is coming off a huge year where his value is through the roof. If the other team is hurting bad on D and would consider a Josi-for-MacKinnon exchange, I'd bite.

Don't bail on Rask yet. Having a Rask and Holtby 1-2 punch is a great luxury. I don't see the need to deal Rask when you have some swanky D to shop (and aren't planning on keeping them all anyway).

So, in a nutshell...

Brodie+ sweetener for MacKinnon.

Josi for MacKinnon.

If push comes to shove, MAYBE Josi and Brodie for MacKinnon and a vet piece to help your run this year.

Something along those lines. Having a Big 3 on D of Barrie, Vatanen and Klingberg (plus one of Brodie or Josi if you keep one) is still a nice back-end.

[HockeyFlynn]

MacKinnon will be on a lot of peoples “should have kept” list. Honestly if he’s not a keeper on your team, go look at a trade because he will be a keeper on someone elses.

Couldn't agree more with this. Don't just let the guy go. The sophomore slump did hit hard, but he was really starting to pick it up before breaking his foot last season. It's fair to project him as a 80 point guy in the future and your expectation of him reaching 60 pts next season is fair too. Now, if you still are not convinced, capitalize on an easy sales pitch opportunity to get yourself something you are comfortable in return. You will definitely have some buyers.

Hope this helps.