Traded the NHL's Leading Scorer, Mistake?

[RizzeeDizzee]

His shooting % is within 10%? That's an acceptable threshold for a shooting percentage to be sustainable? Shit. On Voracek's 129 shots, that's a difference of 13 goals. How is 10% a reasoanble threshold?

Again your math is wrong. His shooting % in his Flyer career is 11.6%, versus the 12.5% it was when I submitted the article. And 10% of 11.6% is 1.6%, which means he's withing 10% of what he normally shoots. That translates to barely any difference.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Thanks, but I still don't get it. No joke. Still don't know what Corsi or Fenwick do/are and really don't care. Come to think of it, I'm actually disappointed that I even know those two terms.

No worries. Let's say that Sidney Crosby has 40 points at 5x5, but there have been 50 goals scored at 5x5 while he was on the ice. That means he's received 40 of 50 points at 5x5, which in turn means his 5x5 IPP is 80% (i.e., 40/50). While some players - particularly playmakers - have proven themselves capable of a sustained 80% or higher IPP at 5x5, usually if you see a number above that you can say that the player is perhaps unsustainably lucky. By the same token, if a forward who normally scores a lot is slumping and happens to have a 5x5 IPP of 40%, then he's likely a good buy low guy since chances are his IPP will improve and, with that, his production.

[rataylor22]

Voracek's SH% with the Flyers is 11.37%. We don't include this season because this is the season we are comparing to. So prior to this season, with the Flyers, he has 63 goals for 554 shots.

Voracek's shooting percentage this season is 13.18%. Obviously that has changed since you submitted your article. He's still 1.8% higher than his average with the Flyers, and 2.9% higher than his career average. Not to mention the lockout season really boosted his career average, unless you think Voracek is an elite shooter and 17% isn't unreasonable. Me personally, I think his shooting % probably didn't have enough time to normalize that season.

I'm not sure why you think it's fine to say all your stats are a "solid indicator" to expect continued performance at this level, but then all the stats that determine he's probably going to regress back to just under a PPG or right around that mark are "negligible differences" we can ignore.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Voracek's SH% with the Flyers is 11.37%. We don't include this season because this is the season we are comparing to. So prior to this season, with the Flyers, he has 63 goals for 554 shots.

Voracek's shooting percentage this season is 13.18%. Obviously that has changed since you submitted your article. He's still 1.8% higher than his average with the Flyers, and 2.9% higher than his career average. Not to mention the lockout season really boosted his career average, unless you think Voracek is an elite shooter and 17% isn't unreasonable. Me personally, I think his shooting % probably didn't have enough time to normalize that season.

I'm not sure why you think it's fine to say all your stats are a "solid indicator" to expect continued performance at this level, but then all the stats that determine he's probably going to regress back to just under a PPG or right around that mark are "negligible differences" we can ignore.

I'll leave it at this. When someone is having an unsustainable breakout, the data is usually there to clearly support it. For comparison, look at my Tyler Toffoli Cage Match from earlier this season. Normally there are glaring outliers - I'm talking 50% increases or more or massively abberational differences in ice time, shooting % or the like. And we need to keep in mind that Voracek is only 25, which is right when someone should enter his prime. And although I keep saying that the numbers tell the story, Voracek's seeing the light on nutrition and fitness is a key point too. Just look at what that's doing for Kevein Shattenkirk, who's not exactly a young-in either.

As for example of players who made a leap well into their NHL careers, there's Patrick Marleau, Corey Perry, and Marc Savard, to name just a few.

[Kofax]

I have to give you guys some credit. That's a pretty solid debate with facts on both sides and you guys didn't let it get too personal. I've read most of it through, and I still don't know what side I would lean towards. Due to personal experience and maybe bias I think I have a hard time believing Voracek will sustain PPG because of all the late breakouts we've see that weren't sustained. I think he'll be close though, 75-80 is where I'd put him.

Anyhow, great discussion guys. I can't rep either of you for a while apparently, but Kudos.

[RizzeeDizzee]

I have to give you guys some credit. That's a pretty solid debate with facts on both sides and you guys didn't let it get too personal. I've read most of it through, and I still don't know what side I would lean towards. Due to personal experience and maybe bias I think I have a hard time believing Voracek will sustain PPG because of all the late breakouts we've see that weren't sustained. I think he'll be close though, 75-80 is where I'd put him.

Anyhow, great discussion guys. I can't rep either of you for a while apparently, but Kudos.

Thanks, and it's been useful for everyone involved to have this back and forth. I only wish more folks would comment within the Cage Match articles themselves, since otherwise I sometimes can't figure out when my logic can rightfully be called into question, as it has been here. For all those reading - use the comments, even if it's to rake me over the coals. I want to make the Cage Match articles the best they can be, and have made changes along the way in response to reader feedback.

For example, I loved this concept of "relative value of points" that I used (basically, I said that guys who score despite being on lines with bad players are all the more valuable, since bad players are less likely to be owned in leagues). But folks thought it was, at best, not very useful, and at worst just plain flawed, so it was gone. I also used to go into detail about how windexy they players were, but many said that was not too important to them, so it was removed.

Long story short, I'll take all the feedback I can get. I still will argue passionately when I think I'm right and the numbers support me, but you can bet that I'll take everything said against me to heart and factor it in - consciously or subconsciously - going forward.

[rataylor22]

End of the day, We're arguing about 8 points. I think Voracek is an elite winger. You think 85-90, I think 75-82. Agreeing to disagreeing is really strill agreeing the Voracek is awesome haha.

As for the OP, I think he wins the trade either way. Duchene is mostly slumping due to an ineffective PP. So in that regard I think he recovers. Either way, I think a 60-65 point Duchene (which is pretty much his floor, yes I realize he's on pace for 50 right now) plus Bishop is better than an 85-85 point Voracek (floor) and Mason. And I think a 70-80 point Duchene (ceiling) plus Bishop is much better than an 85-90 point Voracek (ceiling) and Mason.

[Joe13]

Thanks for all the feedback, great debate about Voracek!

[Rustyrug]

Gimme a break. Enjoy the ride if you have him. He will continue for the rest of the year. Why analyze so much when none of us know the future.

My prediction is 80 pts which is fantastic!!!!

[Bookoz]

Voracek has been around a point a game pace for approximately his last 150-160 games


just throwing that out there

[2014olympicgold]

this is a great thread. love this. this got into crazy stats talk up there lol. but i think most people can say he's done great, and most people are just hesitant because his production is new to people.

[Bookoz]

Voracek has been around a point a game pace for approximately his last 150-160 games


just throwing that out there

Sorry, 185 in his last 200
So not quite a ppg

But 185 in 200 is pretty impressive

The last quarter of the 2011-12 season (including the playoffs) is when he really started to take off

I remember targeting him that offseason because of the finish he had to the season

[2014olympicgold]

Sorry, 185 in his last 200
So not quite a ppg

But 185 in 200 is pretty impressive

The last quarter of the 2011-12 season (including the playoffs) is when he really started to take off

I remember targeting him that offseason because of the finish he had to the season

whats that, like 0.95ppg? so 75pts? i think, quick head math

[Bookoz]

And if you all remember last year, the entire flyers team was horrible for the first 20 games or so
Even Giroux had only a couple goals and maybe 10 points max??
The fact that Voracek ended up with 62 was pretty amazing after that start

So take away that little stretch of 20
I can say a point a game for his last 200

[2014olympicgold]

And if you all remember last year, the entire flyers team was horrible for the first 20 games or so
Even Giroux had only a couple goals and maybe 10 points max??
The fact that Voracek ended up with 62 was pretty amazing after that start

So take away that little stretch of 20
I can say a point a game for his last 200

78pts, so to me the difference between 78pts and 82pts is instant replay (as Robitaille would say). anyone who gets 78pts should be considered to have a chance at ppg