Sell me on John Klingberg

[Big Ev]

he's good, but was obviously overhyped a few weeks ago.

[fungchen3]

he's good, but was obviously overhyped a few weeks ago.

Define "good." Realistic upside for this kid?

[Big Ev]

Define "good." Realistic upside for this kid?

I don't have enough knowledge to give an opinion or a projection. I've only seen him a few times recently. I saw him years ago when he wasn't good defensively.

[NoWayOut]

Alright back on the computer. I'll start with a link to the article about cutting his ice time...

http://starsblog.dallasnews.com/2014...ackwards.html/

As far as projections, I'd say at his best he could be a 50+ producer. Realistically at this point I'd say 45-50 since his role hasn't been clearly defined, but given his skills I think this is very doable. A couple of unknowns yet that could put him over or under those numbers long term, Honka, but he's still 2-3 years away imo, and the bigger unknown, who does Nill ship out and bring in. Goli and Daley have been mentioned as pieces on the block which open an offensive role for Klingberg. I think they need defensive D-men a bit more at the moment, but a good offensive D-man is always an option too. I still think he will be able to carve out a big role offensively even if they bring in another offensive D. There's just not much going on on that blueline offensively. I mean Goli and Daley are about it other than Klingberg. Daley teases with an occasional flash but be realistic, he's 31, and never posted more than 27 in any season. Goli is Goli, cold as ice to start a season, and catches fire in the second half, winds up in the 40's. That's it. So it's all there for the taking and I think Klingberg wants it and the Stars want him to go earn it. Lots to love here.

It's his intangibles that will earn him the coaches trust and get him the ice time to show off his offensive skills. He has excellent vision, good hockey sense, makes good outlet passes to spring them out of their end. He's got wheels, is shifty, can deke and dangle, and doesn't lack confidence with the puck. I think he has a good mindset and will be able to work through the rookie ups-and-downs. He looked great to start because there wasn't a book on him yet around the league. Now there is and he's working/being coached on how to adapt to the oppositions adaptations and counter-punch. Like I said I think he has the mindset, the smarts, and the want to, to keep getting better.

[Mr. Guru]

Klingberg, John
Severson, Damon
Daley, Trevor
Lehtera, Jori

I think Klingberg is the (easy) choice here. I wouldn't have a problem 'wasting' the 1st pick on him if these guys are your other options.

[Pengwin7]

Question about Klingberg.
He has 35min on the PP this year.
One assist.

Is this a concern?

For the Stars, in order of best D-man on the PP this year:
*Daley
*Goligoski
*Klingberg

For fantasy hockey... the PPP is where the gravy points are for a defenseman.
Daley, for example, people simply L-O-V-E to poo-poo him for having a career high of 27pts... but he is typically a rock for about 20 ESP.
Now, mix in the possibility for 15-20 on the PP... now whaddayagot? (Exactly - this was the point of some of us, at least while Daley IS on the PP).

For Klingberg,
I mean... on for 35min of PP... only 2 goals for.
That's not very good.
That's roughly 2/18 on the PP.
Small sample size, but concerning still.
(For clarity, I've only seen Klingberg play twice - and I liked what I saw at even-strength. I dropped Daley in all my leagues in mid-November for Klingberg... so I invested, based on what I "saw"... too... but I'm questioning lately too...)

We've seen it with Goligoski.
Goligoski is easily a flashier player than Daley... by "what you see"... but he actually can't tape a pass well enough to keep a puck moving on the PP. (I've bashed him for this for a while).
That IS something Daley can do.

It sounds easy enough... keep a pucking moving.
But some guys "look" good while they are out there.
While others actually produce results.

To the untrained eye, some people would've picked Michael Grabner as a player that would've panned out better than Joe Pavelski.

I think this is part of fung's questioning.

Klingberg certainly "looks" good out there...
But are all his tools good enough for lasting minutes & production in the NHL?
I can definitely see him being a 30 ESP sort of defenseman... but to get to 45pts... or 50pts... you need PP time... PP1 time.
Will he get that time for sure?
Goligoski is no lock for that time?
Could this be Cam Barker all over again?

(Maybe Dallas just doesn't have a great eye for defensemen.)

[NoWayOut]

The power play has been hot and cold for Dallas, pre- and post-Klingberg's arrival. They keep rotating personnel in-and-out of the first unit. Here again I think Ruff's lack of consistency with any one grouping kills the ability to establish chemistry and get something working. The only constants are the two obvious ones, Benn and Seguin, beyond that it's been flavor of the day. Another big problem, especially for the top unit has been that they pass, pass, pass, looking for the perfect shot rather than taking a not quite perfect but still good shot when they have a lane. Put the puck on net, then go get the rebound. This has been an issue no matter who has been out there on that unit.

It's too early to say but I can't fathom Klingberg being another Barker. Will he reach the heights I anticipate, who knows? But I don't see him being that big of a bust, no way. I will continue to argue that his intangibles will earn him loads of ice time as he progresses. If he can go out there and not be a liability he will get the opportunities in due time and I believe he has the tools to succeed.

[Pengwin7]

It's too early to say but I can't fathom Klingberg being another Barker.

How about another Rundblad?
Another Ryan Murphy?
Another Stefan Elliott?
Another Michael Del Zotto?

The BIG start he got off too... I mean... I think it was just unfair of us all to expect the bar to continue there.
He's a slick looking player, but let's say the word is now out on his stretch-passes and rushes.

Outside of a very solid 2013-14 season w/Frolunda... what in his past suggests he's "the real deal"?
Are we just assuming that his type of game somehow magically translates to the NHL?
Or are we just noting how much better he is than the other (poor) Dallas Stars D-options for offense?
He was drafted 131st overall - and it's not like modern scouts aren't catching the budding superstars in Sweden.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Klingberg

[NoWayOut]

How about another Rundblad?
Another Ryan Murphy?
Another Stefan Elliott?
Another Michael Del Zotto?

The BIG start he got off too... I mean... I think it was just unfair of us all to expect the bar to continue there.
He's a slick looking player, but let's say the word is now out on his stretch-passes and rushes.

Outside of a very solid 2013-14 season w/Frolunda... what in his past suggests he's "the real deal"?
Are we just assuming that his type of game somehow magically translates to the NHL?
Or are we just noting how much better he is than the other (poor) Dallas Stars D-options for offense?
He was drafted 131st overall - and it's not like modern scouts aren't catching the budding superstars in Sweden.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Klingberg

He could follow them down the same road. As I said in the sentence following the one you quoted...

Will he reach the heights I anticipate, who knows?

All success in sports at this level, even with all the talent these kids possess, involves that Aha! moment where things click for a player. Some never get it, others find that moment earlier, others later. And who's to say that the smaller ice over here doesn't fit him better. It condenses the action into a smaller space and it's entirely possible he's more at ease in that situation where all the action is more in front of him. It's all guesswork at this point.

As far as draft position and scouting, well teams miss all the time, some taking a kid too early, others overlooking that diamond in the rough. On the other hand there's always teams finding players that others overlooked. If it was an exact science there'd never be a bust or a pleasant surprise. It would all be cold clinical precision and utterly predictable.

And as for his play, I don't understand all this Corsi, Fenwick, PDO, stuff. I observe and make conclusions as best I can just by the eyeball test. Perfect, no. But I have yet to find a site that handles those fancy analytics that can make it comprehensible for me. I go with what I know how to do, imperfect as it is.

[Avangard]

With all being said, I too must make a decision about keeping Klingberg or Severson. And for the time being, my thoughts go for Severson, who didn't come out of nowhere if we keep it to expectations. Severson is still manning the Devils first PP. shooting at almost 3 SOG per game, with a team filled with holes, and geriatrics. Talk about that.

[Big Ev]

How about another Rundblad?
Another Ryan Murphy?
Another Stefan Elliott?
Another Michael Del Zotto?

The BIG start he got off too... I mean... I think it was just unfair of us all to expect the bar to continue there.
He's a slick looking player, but let's say the word is now out on his stretch-passes and rushes.

Outside of a very solid 2013-14 season w/Frolunda... what in his past suggests he's "the real deal"?
Are we just assuming that his type of game somehow magically translates to the NHL?
Or are we just noting how much better he is than the other (poor) Dallas Stars D-options for offense?
He was drafted 131st overall - and it's not like modern scouts aren't catching the budding superstars in Sweden.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Klingberg

its hard to judge euro defencemen as they just don't get a lot of points

[LakeSoup]

^ This. His draft position was likely exacerbated by his size, because there are concerns about smaller players in general unable to convert whatsoever to the rougher, more compact North American game. No one wants to draft a possible Marc-Andre Bergeron high in the draft (although he's Canadian I believe, so the example isn't perfect). These worries are amplified when you're talking about a defenceman, who plays big minutes and is expected to measure up against fast, big and smart forwards on a daily basis.

Regarding Kling vs the players who are available, Pengwin is right: there's an opportunity cost of the true best player available.
However, I still believe this is Kling.

Some great usage stats and metrics were posted on the first page to give you a good indication of the underlying numbers of Kling's play.

You also have NoWayOut's qualitative remarks and he's someone I trust to be able to provide an accurate depiction.
This isn't moneyball shit where he's looking at how handsome Kling is - positioning and split-second decision making are absolutely essential to being a good defenceman and CAN be judged accurately using the eyetest. Not only that, as an avid Stars watcher, his opinion conveniently fulfills the "contingency" checkbox - a player's worth is heavily reliant on the relative playing level around him.
And who better to judge overall skill level than the most avid Stars watcher on this forum?

All signs point to Klingberg sir!

[27Blue]

Fung - you picked the wrong game to watch the Klinger... otherwise you wouldn't even be asking this question. Listen to NWO and VV - guys who saw what he is capable of. Forget the spreadsheet watchers. Jim Nill said during training camp that the Stars haven't had a guy with Klingberg's skillset since Zubov. Nobody can see the future and he still has a lot to prove, but he has shown things that make your jaw drop - a lot, in a very short period of time.

[Avangard]

How about another Rundblad?
Another Ryan Murphy?
Another Stefan Elliott?
Another Michael Del Zotto?

The BIG start he got off too... I mean... I think it was just unfair of us all to expect the bar to continue there.
He's a slick looking player, but let's say the word is now out on his stretch-passes and rushes.

Outside of a very solid 2013-14 season w/Frolunda... what in his past suggests he's "the real deal"?
Are we just assuming that his type of game somehow magically translates to the NHL?
Or are we just noting how much better he is than the other (poor) Dallas Stars D-options for offense?
He was drafted 131st overall - and it's not like modern scouts aren't catching the budding superstars in Sweden.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Klingberg

One small bit of info which is missing here ; Klingberg was the MVP at the World juniors in 2012, when Sweden won gold.

[havanablast21]

One small bit of info which is missing here ; Klingberg was the MVP at the World juniors in 2012, when Sweden won gold.

Huh... I did not know that.