Lehtera - How Many Points

[Excelsior]

To be fair Dobber did say there was a 20% chance that Lehtera reached 52pts and a 15% Tarasenko reached 70pts.

I do agree though that there is more to giving an informed opinion than looking at box scores. I think the best opinion comes from watching the nuances of how a player performs within the bigger picture of a game and team, chemistry with at least one linemate as well as advanced stats. Other valuable information can be gathered from coaches comments ( some coaches favour certain players or dislike certain players- see coach Quennville and Jeremy Morin ), whether the player has a coach's trust etc.

The more information you can gather, the better informed you will be but some players will still surprise or disappoint for unknown reasons.

[mister_mcgoo]

the sock puppets are multiplying

[VincentVega]

Those citing Dobber's pre-season predictions - you do realize those are pre-season predictions, right? Lots has changed since then, specifically Lehtera playing much better than anyone envisioned, Lehtera playing with Tarasenko and Schwartz, who are insanely good right now, nobody else on the Blues doing much offensively.

[ericdaoust]

Those citing Dobber's pre-season predictions - you do realize those are pre-season predictions, right? Lots has changed since then, specifically Lehtera playing much better than anyone envisioned, Lehtera playing with Tarasenko and Schwartz, who are insanely good right now, nobody else on the Blues doing much offensively.

Yeah the guide was done before there were games to be watched. lol

I'm still wondering what are the guidelines to become one of the game-watchers that know everything. I really really want to be part of their exclusive club.

[audiopile]

Tarasenko is this years Steen. Sorry that doesn't answer your question OP. People knew Lehtera had chemistry with Senko in the past but there is always some question about a players ability to transition from Europe to NA hockey. Lehtera is obviously not having that problem, and/or is being supported by good linemates. If that lines stays together all year then 50-55 is reasonable.

[Sulla]

He also said the chances of coming over this summer had been slim as he still had a deal in the KHL... Mistakes... They happen

[mister_mcgoo]

I'm still wondering what are the guidelines to become one of the game-watchers that know everything. I really really want to be part of their exclusive club.

Maybe it's a special cable package you need to purchase to be one of the cool kids?
Seriously though if you find out let me know, I wanna be in the club too, it sounds hella cool

[BealestreetTyrant]

50-60 seems like the consensus. It's hard to judge Lehtera as he's never played a full length (NHL-wise) season. That said, he's a professional athlete approaching his prime. He might be able to put up points anywhere in St. Louis' top 9. He could have a productive fantasy season! And if Hitch likes him, he'll get chances.

[larrylintz]

To be fair Dobber did say there was a 20% chance that Lehtera reached 52pts and a 15% Tarasenko reached 70pts.

In other words, Dobber saw the tools and potential for Lehtera to break out as he has thus far. We now know 4 things he didnt know when he made that projection. We know that his chemistry with Tank from KHL has translated to NHL, we can see signs that Tank is emerging as a star or even superstar, we know they have been matched with an excellent winger, and they have suddenly emerge as the top offensive line and #1 pp unit. Surely with a brand new context that 15% has to be a heck of a lot higher.
I really don't get the pessimism here. He has 16 points in his last 13 games, so to end up with 50 points u r suggesting this will essentially grind to a halt. To end up with 50 at this point he would get 34 points in the next 66 games. In other words he'll go from centring one of the hottest lines in the league to being a 42-point-a-year forward, say a David Legwand kind of player. Really, to slow down to that extent suggests he's ultimately really going to get demoted to 3rd or 4th line, maybe start becoming a healthy scratch. What is the basis for that? do you think blues, a team in need of another strong centre to compete against teams like Hawks, scouted and then signed a 26-year old to not an inexpensive contract to come over and play the Legwand role on the team?

People in the projection business are imho inherently cautious, I think they view it as better to put down a modest projection even if you sprinkle the commentary with references to breakout potential, rather than go out on a limb with an aggressive projection for an unproven player and have that come back to bite you. But things have changed. I don't see a rational reason to say this is just a big mirage essentially because what he's doing isn't consistent with educated guesses some prognosticators made in August.

I guess I will conclude with this point. Every year there are players who beat projections by 20-30 points, have career years, etc., and it's not always the consensus pre-season candidates like Hornqvist. If you don't have an open mind and try to look around and snare one of those guys I think it's gonna be very tough for you to win a pool. Even now in my league perhaps the best Free Agents are guys like Atkinson and Franzen -- really nothing to write home about. But i am convinced that by January someone will emerge to help someone, hopefully me, win a pool. Look at Palat's point-a-game pace last year from Jan 1 to the end of playoffs.

[Daydream Nation]

Yeah the guide was done before there were games to be watched. lol

I'm still wondering what are the guidelines to become one of the game-watchers that know everything. I really really want to be part of their exclusive club.

While there is merit to what you're saying there is also a flip side. There are a lot of people who post strong opinions based merely on reading stats and catching the occasional game or period. I see this with comments that some make about the Blackhawks since I study the stats and watch the games. It is clear they are mainly reading boxscores yet they have these strong opinions. You just have to know whose comments and opinions to listen to.

[Excelsior]

While there is merit to what you're saying there is also a flip side. There are a lot of people who post strong opinions based merely on reading stats and catching the occasional game or period. I see this with comments that some make about the Blackhawks since I study the stats and watch the games. It is clear they are mainly reading boxscores yet they have these strong opinions. You just have to know whose comments and opinions to listen to.

Totally agree with you Daydream.

[mister_mcgoo]

In other words, Dobber saw the tools and potential for Lehtera to break out as he has thus far. We now know 4 things he didnt know when he made that projection. We know that his chemistry with Tank from KHL has translated to NHL, we can see signs that Tank is emerging as a star or even superstar, we know they have been matched with an excellent winger, and they have suddenly emerge as the top offensive line and #1 pp unit. Surely with a brand new context that 15% has to be a heck of a lot higher.
I really don't get the pessimism here. He has 16 points in his last 13 games, so to end up with 50 points u r suggesting this will essentially grind to a halt. To end up with 50 at this point he would get 34 points in the next 66 games. In other words he'll go from centring one of the hottest lines in the league to being a 42-point-a-year forward, say a David Legwand kind of player. Really, to slow down to that extent suggests he's ultimately really going to get demoted to 3rd or 4th line, maybe start becoming a healthy scratch. What is the basis for that? do you think blues, a team in need of another strong centre to compete against teams like Hawks, scouted and then signed a 26-year old to not an inexpensive contract to come over and play the Legwand role on the team?

People in the projection business are imho inherently cautious, I think they view it as better to put down a modest projection even if you sprinkle the commentary with references to breakout potential, rather than go out on a limb with an aggressive projection for an unproven player and have that come back to bite you. But things have changed. I don't see a rational reason to say this is just a big mirage essentially because what he's doing isn't consistent with educated guesses some prognosticators made in August.

I guess I will conclude with this point. Every year there are players who beat projections by 20-30 points, have career years, etc., and it's not always the consensus pre-season candidates like Hornqvist. If you don't have an open mind and try to look around and snare one of those guys I think it's gonna be very tough for you to win a pool. Even now in my league perhaps the best Free Agents are guys like Atkinson and Franzen -- really nothing to write home about. But i am convinced that by January someone will emerge to help someone, hopefully me, win a pool. Look at Palat's point-a-game pace last year from Jan 1 to the end of playoffs.

Like I said, if you're so gobsmacked with him and convinced this isn't just a typical early season anomaly then put your money where your mouth is and lay a bet on it.

[ericdaoust]

While there is merit to what you're saying there is also a flip side. There are a lot of people who post strong opinions based merely on reading stats and catching the occasional game or period. I see this with comments that some make about the Blackhawks since I study the stats and watch the games. It is clear they are mainly reading boxscores yet they have these strong opinions. You just have to know whose comments and opinions to listen to.

I'm surprised that you interpreted out of my post that I was downplaying the value of watching players and seeing things that don't appear on boxscores. Wow. I'm poking fun at those that use their viewing habits as a badge of honor (as though they're the only ones that watch) to try to prop themselves up and downplay others.

Like you said, always consider the source.

[mister_mcgoo]

While there is merit to what you're saying there is also a flip side. There are a lot of people who post strong opinions based merely on reading stats and catching the occasional game or period. I see this with comments that some make about the Blackhawks since I study the stats and watch the games. It is clear they are mainly reading boxscores yet they have these strong opinions. You just have to know whose comments and opinions to listen to.

Well there are two sides to it actually. A hardcore statistician will tell you that watching the games is irrelevant, that they can deduce everything they need to know from the raw numbers, and to some degree they are right, because at the end of the day, what matters more? That Yakupov played a hard game, never took a shift off and deserved better than his -3? OR that he had no points and was a -3 and hurt your team for the week? Fantasy leagues don't measure effort or hard work, they measure raw numbers, so to some degree they make a valid point.

On the flip-side though (and to your point), watching the games in depth (not just the highlights the next morning) paints a much richer picture of what's going on with the teams and players than any boxscore can. It gives 'context' to the numbers. Why was Yakupov -3? If you watched the game you saw that the coach had him playing C for some reason and he was paired with defensively weak wingers. Or maybe he played most of his shifts against the top line? Or on one goal he had been driven hard into the boards and the opponent fell on him preventing him from getting back into the play, and the last one was an empty netter as they tried to tie the game.

Watching the games carefully gives a lot of 'meaning' to the stats and lets you see patterns in the play that no boxscore possibly can. That's why many of the team forums on here are excellent resources for folks who don't see a lot of given team.

[larrylintz]

Like I said, if you're so gobsmacked with him and convinced this isn't just a typical early season anomaly then put your money where your mouth is and lay a bet on it.

I haven't laid a money bet in 30 years and certainly wouldn't put up money in one with a complete stranger online, and especially someone so hostile he calls another poster a "little man," but i will happily revisit this thread in May to discuss whether your 52-pt prediction or my 65-70 (prorated to an 82-game sked to account for injuries) was closer to the mark.