Buy Low/Sell High Candidates

[ztking]

I don't get this, in what possible way are Lehtonen and Tank buy lows? I doubt there is a single person who automatically multiplies an unproven player's ppg in mid-november by 82 and assumes the total is a lock.

First of it all my post was over a week ago, and I said Tank is a sell high if you make it through the post. For the reasons you stated, and because some people are buying into the hype a little to much and you can capitalize on that. I flipped him in a deal for Kane.

Also, around the time I made the post, Lehtonen was struggling mightily and many people weren't too keen on him. Great opportunity to pick up a very good starter after he faltered.

[LakeSoup]

I got a thread going in the trade section but wanted a little more perspective in this buy-low / sell-high conversation...
I acquired Pietrangelo and Koivu by sending Vrbata and Trouba, in a points-only setup where I'm contending.
Did I buy low in your opinion? Or did I get caught up in their names' value?

Too low IMO, Vrbata >>> Koivu but Pietrangelo for Trouba is kind of a wash, I like Pietrangelo more though.
To provide some perspective, the manager that owned Koivu dropped him. If he got offered this trade prior, he'd probably jump leaps of joy.

Can't believe Ryan Johansen hasn't been mentioned. He and Voracek are the two most screaming sell highs in the league. Tarasenko not too far behind.

I don't think Johansen is a sell high. He's an elite player who can legitimately sustain PPG production. Maybe he's producing at a level that's a little bit higher than the pace he'll finish the end of the year with, but he's not grossly over-performing. 70 points at least, most likely 75-80.

[STLblues]

In deeper leagues I would look to acquire jay bouwmeester as 2 points through 20 games for a 40 point dman is a huge low....he also recently was paired up again with AP

[Instant Karma]

...
I don't think Johansen is a sell high. He's an elite player who can legitimately sustain PPG production. Maybe he's producing at a level that's a little bit higher than the pace he'll finish the end of the year with, but he's not grossly over-performing. 70 points at least, most likely 75-80.

This^. As I pointed out on another thread, it would take a major injury or a rather extreme regression for him to finish at or below 70 now. He broke out with 63 (?) last year, he's torching that pace this season despite missing the entire preseason, and he was the 4th overall pick in his draft, so why should 70 be his ceiling?

I'm as conservative with expectations as the next guy, but I frankly don't get it.

[Instant Karma]

The question isn't whether he will hit 70. The question is whether he will maintain his current pace (99 pts). I say no.

Absolutely, I don't believe he's going to score a hundred, either. Or even 90. But a ppg pace or thereabouts isn't that far-fetched.

But since when does not being able to maintain a hundred-point pace that no one realistically believes that he should maintain make him a sell-high? It's not as if someone is going to actually land a Crosby or Stamkos for him.

[Instant Karma]

Not a Crosby or Stamkos, but maybe a Benn, or Mackinnon or Duchene.

Sell highs are players who are overachieving and might therefore fetch a GM more than normal in a trade. If Johansen lands you one of those 3 guys, wouldn't you do that trade? I would. And in 2 or 3 months, the other GM will regret that deal because he bought high on an overacheiving, albeit terrific, player.

(i.e. when you sell high on a stock, it doesn't mean it's a bad stock... it might be a great stock that has simply gone too high, too fast and due to regress...)

I think you'd have to be extremely naive to think that Johansen is a 100-pt. player and thus merits being traded as one, so I pretty much reject that premise. I don't think anyone really believes that.

That being said, I'd doubt that I could land a Benn for him, but I wouldn't call a trade for either of the other two far-fetched considering how they're currently doing relative to where they were drafted.

[Instant Karma]

You're making my argument for me, can't you see that?

He's not a 100 point player. Exactly!
But is he playing like one at the moment? Yes, he is!

So if you find someone "naive" enough to trade too much for him, based on his current overachieving, you DO that deal. Classic sell high.

Yes, but I seriously doubt that anyone rational actually thinks that he's a 100-pt player. Can't you see that?

100-pt players don't exactly grow on trees. I can only name two or three players that could even be in that conversation at the moment.

Currently playing at a pace above what the player can be realistically be considered to finish at does not make the player a
"sell-high", unless your league is full of rubes.

So, Johansen's not a 100-pt player. We agree on this. Which does not mean that he's not an 80-pt player, which would still make him an extremely valuable commodity in any league. This is what I am saying.

[LakeSoup]

Eyemissgilmor, this is just my 2cents but I feel like your definition of "overachieve" is a little strict. Of course, you are not wrong - Johansen is playing at a 99pt pace and I agree that he's not going to continue that level of production. If you were to use this definition in perhaps a different thread where you were simply discussing Johansen's potential and whether or not his current production was something indicative of the future, I would agree with your use of "overachieve."

However, in the context of a "buy-low-sell-high thread", it is not only finding a player who is "overachieving" but pairing that player up with someone who is "underachieving" - otherwise, without this difference, there is a lost opportunity cost in the effort to try to make a transaction happen.
Next, there remains the current NHL environment where realistically no player in the NHL (other than Crosby) can consistently achieve a PPG + pace without being called an overachiever.

So with these expectations in mind, if we believe that Johansen is a PPG player (which you seem to as well) and he is producing above that - we need to find a player who can produce PPG+ but is currently performing PPG-. Because no players fits the latter category, the decision is to not sell high on Johansen and stay put.

I don't think either of you are wrong but you both are simply looking at this from two different perspectives - someone who I would daresay is more pragmatic in Instant and the other who is more idealist in eyemiss.

[Instant Karma]

Eyemissgilmor, this is just my 2cents but I feel like your definition of "overachieve" is a little strict. Of course, you are not wrong - Johansen is playing at a 99pt pace and I agree that he's not going to continue that level of production. If you were to use this definition in perhaps a different thread where you were simply discussing Johansen's potential and whether or not his current production was something indicative of the future, I would agree with your use of "overachieve."

However, in the context of a "buy-low-sell-high thread", it is not only finding a player who is "overachieving" but pairing that player up with someone who is "underachieving" - otherwise, without this difference, there is a lost opportunity cost in the effort to try to make a transaction happen.
Next, there remains the current NHL environment where realistically no player in the NHL (other than Crosby) can consistently achieve a PPG + pace without being called an overachiever.

So with these expectations in mind, if we believe that Johansen is a PPG player (which you seem to as well) and he is producing above that - we need to find a player who can produce PPG+ but is currently performing PPG-. Because no players fits the latter category, the decision is to not sell high on Johansen and stay put.

I don't think either of you are wrong but you both are simply looking at this from two different perspectives - someone who I would daresay is more pragmatic in Instant and the other who is more idealist in eyemiss.

Exactly. Well said.

[STLblues]

And now Bouwmeester is injured.......that buy low window is either now lower or just way to low to buy idk which.....

[horrorfan]

In deeper leagues I would look to acquire jay bouwmeester as 2 points through 20 games for a 40 point dman is a huge low....he also recently was paired up again with AP

And now Bouwmeester is injured.......that buy low window is either now lower or just way to low to buy idk which.....

Although he may still technically be a buy low (he can't get much lower), he's not a 40 point defenseman. The last time he hit 40 points was in 08/09. Last season was the first time over 30 points (not counting per game rate seasons where he played less games) since then. Sure the shortened season was decent, but looking at PPP that was key for those improvements, and this season he is getting very little PP time. He's more of a free pickup then a buy IMO.

[Avangard]

Biggest buy low is Oshie right now.

[Instant Karma]

Biggest buy low is Oshie right now.

Is he? I think a lot of his value was in the big top-line and PP minutes that he was playing last season with Backes and Steen, which may now be a thing of the past.

[jcairns]

Is he? I think a lot of his value was in the big top-line and PP minutes that he was playing last season with Backes and Steen, which may now be a thing of the past.

Yeah, I agree with this.

[VincentVega]

Oshie should be good for 50 points over 82 games going forward.